Prior to the 2007 season I wrote an article about all of the public relations information teams release during the off-season regarding their players. Here’s an excerpt from that:

Spring Training, it means baseball is right around the corner. It also means that players have lost weight, gained weight, added another pitch, corrected their vision and so on. The question is what to listen to and what not to listen to. There is a fine line between a player actually improving and the teams PR staff saying the player improved.

Before last season I came up with a list of players who had been said to have changed something. The idea behind it being that after the season I would analyze the list to determine exactly what and how much is worth listening to during the off-season. Below you will find that list, what they claimed to have changed and whether or not there was a noticeable change in 2007.

Kerry Wood - Lost 30 lbs.: Wood came back strong last year with a 3.33 ERA and will get a shot at the closers job in Chicago next year. He had 24 strikeouts in 24.1 innings and his recovery was a success. Wood’s change has to be deemed a success.
Barry Zito - Added 10 lbs. of muscle: We all know Zito’s story. If he really did add 10 lbs. of muscle, perhaps it messed up his mechanics? In any case, his change is a failure.
Felix Hernandez - Lost about 20 lbs.: Hernandez is still only 21 and posted a 3.92 ERA last season. The season before that he posted a 4.52 ERA, so he definitely improved. His strikeout rate went down slightly, but I’m still deeming this a success.
Bobby Jenks - Lost 25 lbs.: Jenks posted an outstanding 2.77 ERA which was a huge improvement over 2006. Jenks has elevated himself to an elite level. This one is also a success. Aaron Harang - Lost 13 lbs.: Harang certainly didn’t have a down year, but if he did lose 13 lbs. it had no noticeable affect. Harang had nearly identical numbers in 2006 and 2007. For that reason, I have to call this one a failure.
Ryan Dempster - Lost 20 lbs.: Dempster maintained the Cubs closer role for most of the season, but was unspectacular at best. He’ll be given an opportunity to win a spot in the starting rotation next year and if he doesn’t will probably be relegated to long relief or traded. This one’s a failure.
Mark Buehrle - Hired personal trainer: Buehrle’s numbers were so much better in 2007 than 2006 that I can’t think of the words to describe the difference. This one is a success.
Nick Swisher - Added 20 lbs. of muscle: Swisher has always been an inconsistent player and 2007 exemplified that. 20 lbs. of muscle and a 13 homerun drop off from 2006. That’s definitely a failure.
Jose Reyes – Added 7 lbs. of muscle: Reyes had a great year on the basepaths, but his improvement probably didn’t come from adding 7 lbs. of muscle. His homerun total was a small disappointment, so this one is a failure.
Lastings Milledge - Added 13 lbs. of muscle: Milledge played in the same amount of games, hit 3 more homeruns and raised his SLG percentage from .380 to .446. He’s still only 22 and has plenty of room to improve. This one’s close, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and call it a success.
Dustin Pedroia - Lost 23 lbs.: Pedroia had an outstanding season in Boston helping them win the World Series again. This is definitely a success.
Alex Rodriguez - Lost 12 lbs.: Rodriguez was again the best player in baseball after a down year in 2006. This is a success.
Andruw Jones - Dropped 10 lbs.: We all know what happened to Jones this year. No more analysis is needed, this is a failure.
Brian McCann - Added upper body strength: McCann got more at bats in 2007 and hit less homeruns. His slugging percentage also dropped so there’s no doubt this is a failure.
Dan Haren - Working on a cut fastball: Haren finished the season with a 3.07 ERA as compared to 4.12 in 2006. He also had 15 more strikeouts in almost an almost identical amount of innings pitched. This is certainly a success.
Jason Isringhausen - Working on a changeup with help from Anthony Reyes: Not sure why you want to take advice from Anthony Reyes anymore, but perhaps it worked for Isringhausen. He had a great comeback season and earns a success.
Jeremy Bonderman - Working on a third pitch: Bonderman was one of the biggest dissapointments in baseball last season. He posted a 5.01 ERA and is definitely a failure.
Jonathan Papelbon - Bringing his curveball back and increased reliance on sinking fastball: Papelbon’s ERA dropped by almost a full point, but his 2006 numbers weren’t sustainable. He finished 2007 with a 1.85 ERA so despite the decrease, he gets a success.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - Refining two-seam fastball: Matsuzaka came over from Japan and should have been able to fool his way past hitters in his first season. However, he couldn’t quite do it and didn’t live up to the hype. I’m calling this one a failure, but it’s close.
Roy Oswalt - Tinkering with changeup; planning to throw it to right-handed hitters: Oswalt still isn’t striking many people out and his ERA decreased slightly. However, he still had an excellent season with an ERA in the low 3s. He earns a success.
Chris Carpenter - Hopes to resume throwing changeup: This one really isn’t fair because he spent almost the entire season on the DL and will miss a large portion of next year. Not sure if throwing his changeup more had anything to do with that, but I’m guessing no. I’m going to call this one neutral because of the circumstances.
Mariano Rivera - Working on a changeup: Rivera started off so bad and ended so good. His final batting average against was .248 and he had more than a strikeout per inning pitched. He earns a success.
Billy Wagner - Working on a split-finger fastball: Wagner’s ERA dropped almost half a point, but what really gets me is that he lowered his strikeout total. A split-finger fastball should be a strikeout pitch for a closer of his caliber. He earns a failure.
Josh Beckett - Bringing his changeup back: A large part of Beckett’s success was probably simply due to his adjustment to the AL East. However, there’s no denying he was one of the best pitchers in baseball this year and so he has to be deemed a success.
Carlos Beltran - Hopes to steal 40 bases again: Beltran only stole 23 bases last year and it wasn’t because he wasn’t successful. He had a 92% success rate which is simply outstanding. This is just a fact of the Mets maximizing his value before his unsustainable percentage begins to come down. Still, he didn’t run nearly enough to steal 40 bases and is thus a failure.
Willy Taveras - Will have green light to run more; spoke of swiping 60 bases: Taveras was a great source of stolen bases in 2007 totaling 33 swipes. There are only two problems: (1) That’s 27 SB short of his goal and (2) over the past 3 years he’s averaged 33.33 stolen bases. This one’s a failure.
Dave Roberts - Should continue running despite presence of Bonds: This was a pretty vague goal so I’ve got to give him a success. He continued to run and continued to have a good success rate (86%). His total dropped a little, but this was also due to a slight decrease in his success rate which was 89% in 2006.
Jhonny Peralta - Laser eye surgery: Peralta clearly improved in 2007. Much of the improvement was in his average. Not to mention, his SLG, OBP and OPS also improved. This is definitely a success.

This totals 15 successes and 12 failures. When you factor in that some of the success could be due to reasons other than ones listed, this looks like even more of a wash. The fact that this appears so neutral leads me to believe that the successes and failures are more in line with normal improvement and regression that happens in the MLB every year. So what does this mean? Don’t listen to all of the PR that happens during the off-season. We’ve already seen an example of this in Miguel Cabrera’s promise to lose weight. In the end, it’s only about a 50/50 chance anyhow.