Blockbuster: Cabrera to Marlins
What a week last week was. The winter meetings brought a lot of excitement to the world of fantasy baseball. There were rumors all over the place suggesting lots of star players moving to new teams. Problem was, only one big deal went down. Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis headed to Detroit in a deal that sent lefty Andrew Miller and centerfielder Cameron Maybin, along with other prospects, to Detroit.
At first glance one might say that Marlins got a better return in this deal than they were getting in any other deal. I’d have to say they ended up settling for more quantity than quality. They were asking for much more in return from the Angels and Dodgers. Sure, Miller and Maybin might be higher quality than any other combo of two players that were asked for. However, these guys are only prospects, they really haven’t shown they can do anything at the major league level yet. From the LA teams, the Marlins were asking for 2-3 proven MLB players along with a top prospect. On top of that, outside of the two top guys they got from the Tigers, the Marlins got nothing but quantity prospects back. None of those prospects will rate on any top 100 prospect lists by respected minor league analysts. Sure, some of those guys were Tigers’ top prospects, but keep in mind that they already dealt some in other deals recently. For Example, in the Sheffield deal last year and the Renteria deal earlier in the off-season some of the Tigers' top prospects were involved. I still feel that the offer the Angels had put together was a stronger offer than what Florida actually received. My guess is that the Marlins continued to ask for more and more and more, and the Angels simply got tired of it and said we’ll offer you Kendrick, Mathis, and Adenhart or Santana. This means they backed down, from offering four players, because they were tired of the hassle of dealing with unethical management.
This will turn out to be a true mistake for the Marlins. They were going to get 3 or 4 major league ready players (Kendrick and Adenhart of which will be all-star quality players, just like Miller and Maybin) for just Cabrera and if they wanted to deal Willis they easily could have shipped him off for two quality minor leaguers. The Tigers on the other hand got a steal. Sure Maybin is a top 10 talent in the minor leagues, but he got a September call up this past season and looked well overmatched. Sure he is young and still has time to develop, but facts are facts, he is still a prospect. Sure Miller would be a top 5 pitching prospect if he were still prospect eligible. However, he looked overmatched at times while in the majors as well, and ended his season with an arm injury. The Tigers sold their two top prospects at well over premium in this situation.
The fantasy impact of this deal could be enormous. Cabrera should be a monster. He will finally be protected in his lineup. He will score lots of runs and get lots of opportunities for RBIs. He was a mid to late first round pick before the deal and should be an early first round pick now. Willis should slide up the draft chart as well simply because even a repeat of his 5.00+ ERA could get him 18 wins with this team. Maybin will likely be the starter in centerfield for the Marlins, and could be a big SB guy during his rookie season. This could, however, backfire on the Marlins. They need to make sure that he is ready during spring training for a promotion to the majors. He looked well overmatched last season, and you don’t want to rush him. If they are patient with him it shouldn’t take much longer than half the season before this guy is ready to roam centerfield and play all-star quality baseball. Andrew Miller could be the ace of the staff next year if he is healthy. Again they need to be patient with him. I see no circumstance where Miller isn’t in the starting rotation next year (barring an injury). However he should not be at the front of the rotation. At this point Miller should be in the middle or at the back of the rotation. If that is the case he could be a great addition for next season. Him moving to the weaker NL, pitching in a nice pitcher’s ballpark, and at the back of a rotation, could lead to a nice statistical season. Pitching on that team he may not rack up many wins, but he should have nice numbers otherwise. He could be a Scott Kazmir like pitcher this season.
- On a side note, none of my predictions came true. Cabrera was traded to the Tigers instead of the Angels and none of the other deals went down. Stay tuned and we’ll see if I was right.
- One rumor out there is Alexis Rios from Toronto going to San Francisco for Tim Lincecum. Can’t see why the giants would do this, I know they have no offense at all, but you’ve got to build around pitching. Especially top notch pitching like Lincecum.
- Cincinnati is rumored to be discussing a deal sending Homer Bailey, Joey Votto and another prospect (possibly Johnny Cueto) to the Orioles for Erik Bedard. If this offer is truly made, then the Orioles would be stupid to not accept. If this deal happens, fantasy owners of Bailey have to be happy that he will be out from under Dusty Baker’s command.
- Oakland has apparently received an offer from the Diamondbacks on Dan Haren. The rumor has Carlos Gonzalez, Emilio Bonificio, and Brett Anderson being sent to Oakland. Not sure I think this is a good deal for Oakland, but my hunch along with many others’ would have the A’s getting much more from the Dbacks.
- Want any proof that even something as sacred as baseball is all about the money? Rumors have Barry Bonds possibly signing in Oakland. What other reason is there to sign the guy? Sure he can still play, but the guy is such a cancer to the clubhouse, probably more so indirectly than directly thanks to the media. Get him out of baseball already!
At first glance one might say that Marlins got a better return in this deal than they were getting in any other deal. I’d have to say they ended up settling for more quantity than quality. They were asking for much more in return from the Angels and Dodgers. Sure, Miller and Maybin might be higher quality than any other combo of two players that were asked for. However, these guys are only prospects, they really haven’t shown they can do anything at the major league level yet. From the LA teams, the Marlins were asking for 2-3 proven MLB players along with a top prospect. On top of that, outside of the two top guys they got from the Tigers, the Marlins got nothing but quantity prospects back. None of those prospects will rate on any top 100 prospect lists by respected minor league analysts. Sure, some of those guys were Tigers’ top prospects, but keep in mind that they already dealt some in other deals recently. For Example, in the Sheffield deal last year and the Renteria deal earlier in the off-season some of the Tigers' top prospects were involved. I still feel that the offer the Angels had put together was a stronger offer than what Florida actually received. My guess is that the Marlins continued to ask for more and more and more, and the Angels simply got tired of it and said we’ll offer you Kendrick, Mathis, and Adenhart or Santana. This means they backed down, from offering four players, because they were tired of the hassle of dealing with unethical management.
This will turn out to be a true mistake for the Marlins. They were going to get 3 or 4 major league ready players (Kendrick and Adenhart of which will be all-star quality players, just like Miller and Maybin) for just Cabrera and if they wanted to deal Willis they easily could have shipped him off for two quality minor leaguers. The Tigers on the other hand got a steal. Sure Maybin is a top 10 talent in the minor leagues, but he got a September call up this past season and looked well overmatched. Sure he is young and still has time to develop, but facts are facts, he is still a prospect. Sure Miller would be a top 5 pitching prospect if he were still prospect eligible. However, he looked overmatched at times while in the majors as well, and ended his season with an arm injury. The Tigers sold their two top prospects at well over premium in this situation.
The fantasy impact of this deal could be enormous. Cabrera should be a monster. He will finally be protected in his lineup. He will score lots of runs and get lots of opportunities for RBIs. He was a mid to late first round pick before the deal and should be an early first round pick now. Willis should slide up the draft chart as well simply because even a repeat of his 5.00+ ERA could get him 18 wins with this team. Maybin will likely be the starter in centerfield for the Marlins, and could be a big SB guy during his rookie season. This could, however, backfire on the Marlins. They need to make sure that he is ready during spring training for a promotion to the majors. He looked well overmatched last season, and you don’t want to rush him. If they are patient with him it shouldn’t take much longer than half the season before this guy is ready to roam centerfield and play all-star quality baseball. Andrew Miller could be the ace of the staff next year if he is healthy. Again they need to be patient with him. I see no circumstance where Miller isn’t in the starting rotation next year (barring an injury). However he should not be at the front of the rotation. At this point Miller should be in the middle or at the back of the rotation. If that is the case he could be a great addition for next season. Him moving to the weaker NL, pitching in a nice pitcher’s ballpark, and at the back of a rotation, could lead to a nice statistical season. Pitching on that team he may not rack up many wins, but he should have nice numbers otherwise. He could be a Scott Kazmir like pitcher this season.
- On a side note, none of my predictions came true. Cabrera was traded to the Tigers instead of the Angels and none of the other deals went down. Stay tuned and we’ll see if I was right.
- One rumor out there is Alexis Rios from Toronto going to San Francisco for Tim Lincecum. Can’t see why the giants would do this, I know they have no offense at all, but you’ve got to build around pitching. Especially top notch pitching like Lincecum.
- Cincinnati is rumored to be discussing a deal sending Homer Bailey, Joey Votto and another prospect (possibly Johnny Cueto) to the Orioles for Erik Bedard. If this offer is truly made, then the Orioles would be stupid to not accept. If this deal happens, fantasy owners of Bailey have to be happy that he will be out from under Dusty Baker’s command.
- Oakland has apparently received an offer from the Diamondbacks on Dan Haren. The rumor has Carlos Gonzalez, Emilio Bonificio, and Brett Anderson being sent to Oakland. Not sure I think this is a good deal for Oakland, but my hunch along with many others’ would have the A’s getting much more from the Dbacks.
- Want any proof that even something as sacred as baseball is all about the money? Rumors have Barry Bonds possibly signing in Oakland. What other reason is there to sign the guy? Sure he can still play, but the guy is such a cancer to the clubhouse, probably more so indirectly than directly thanks to the media. Get him out of baseball already!
