Analyzing The Rule Four Draft
It's prospect time here at MLB Front Office. Our newsletter subscribers got a sneak peek last week and we continue now with our rankings from the Rule 4 1st year player's draft. Knowing the prospects is a huge advantage in fantasy baseball. So, I figure, knowing the prospects before they even play a full season in the minors is a HUGE advantage. For those of you in extremely competitive leagues with minor league drafts, this knowledge is absolutely necessary. Anyway, I've tiered the 1st round of the minor league draft. Some of these players are likely to make an impact as soon as the end of this year and next year. Some players from last years draft that are now ready: Evan Longoria, Andrew Miller, Tim Lincecum. David Price has the potential to be this year's Tim Lincecum, and there are many more that have huge potential. Anyway, without further ado, the 2007 Rule 4 1st year player's draft 1st round:
Tier 1
David Price - LHP TB: Clearly the top fantasy prospect to come out of the 2007 draft, Price is consistently around 90-92 with his fastball and can touch 95 at times. He has a great mentality and will be on the fast track to the majors possibly as early as the end of this year.
Josh Vitters - 3B CHC: Vitters was the best overall bat in the draft. Most people thought he would go 2nd overall, but the Cubs nabbed him third despite having Aramis Ramirez locked up long term. He’s extremely polished for a high school player and won’t need an excessively long time in the minors. He possesses excellent bat speed and will hit for a decent average.
Mathew Wieters - C BAL: Wieters was one of the better known prospects coming into the draft. Perhaps this is because of the comparisons to Jason Varitek and Joe Mauer. He’s a 6-5, switch hitting catcher carried by his bat. However, he is not defensively inept and can handle the staff well enough to stay at catcher. He’s the first significant Boras player selected by Orioles. A true once in a decade type of Talent.
Rick Porcello - RHP DET: Porcello was a Boras client and slipped in the draft due to signability conerns. He has extremely high upside and is probably the second most promising player in the draft after Price. He draws comparisons to Justin Verlander. He has a good arsenal including a 95-96 fastball, curve, slider and change. He’s already a top 20 prospect in the minors.
Tier 2
Jarrod Parker - RHP ARI: He has the best high school fastball, mid 90s with quick arm, of the class. And he is the most polished high school pitcher. He’s been compared to the likes of Roy Oswalt, Tim Lincecum, and Scott Kazmir. He’ll be placed on the fast track and should reach the majors quickly, for a high school prospect.
Beau Mills - 1B/3B CLE: Mills possesses excellent power to all fields and earned the reputation of being the most predictable power hitter in the draft. However, his defense is questionable and he won’t play 3rd base in the majors. According to scouts, he plays the game "the right way." His Dad also played in the MLB.
Phillipe Aumont - RHP SEA: Aumont is 6-7, 225 lbs and physically imposing. His fast ball reaches 95-96 MPH. He projects as a front of rotation starter. In the worst case scenario, he could be shifted to the bullpen and become a dominant closer.
Mike Moustakas - 3B KC: The number two overall pick in the draft comes directly from high school as a SS, but doesn’t have the defensive ability to stay there in the majors. He’ll make the move to third base and possesses 20-30 homerun power, which lands him at the bottom of tier two. The Royals will give him plenty of time to develop in the minors with Alex Gordon blocking his way.
Jason Heyward - OF ATL: Heyward was one of the best pure power bats in the draft. He’s drawn Comparison to Fred McGriff and Frank Thomas. He posses high upside and knows how to work the plate. This is the type of guy you can envision hitting 40 homeruns at some point during his career.
Andrew Brackman - RHP NYY: Brackman has the best fastball in the college class and has plenty of natural athleticism: He played basketball for 2 years in college. His elbow is a question, but when healthy, can touch 99. He would have been a high first round pick if not for the injury concerns. His track to the majors may be slow because Tommy John surgery is a possibility. In addition, he needs to work on his curve, and is more of a college project than a polished pitcher. All together, he has very high upside.
Ross Detwiler - LHP WAS: Detwiler possesses a mid-90s fastball and a good knuckle-curve. He has two plus pitches and is trying to put on bulk. His size is the only real concern and he could be the 2nd best college lefty in the draft.
Tier 3
Madison Bumgarner - LHP SF: Bumgarner can get his fastball up to 97 MPH, but his command on his breaking pitch is questionable. He has lots of natural athleticism and might be able to reach 100 MPH on the fastball. The Giants have a good scouting team and develop pitchers well (Lincecum, Cain, Lowry), so his future is bright.
Ben Revere - OF MIN: Revere is one of the better runners in the draft and has solid to average bat speed. He projects as a leadoff man with great speed. He’s not ranked as a top prospect, but in fantasy baseball terms, he is.
Wendell Fairley - OF SF: Fairley hit for average and power in high school with potential for growth. He split time between baseball and football so he was limited in exposure which may be, in part, a reason he wasn’t drafted until the end of the first round. He’s a good base runner with comparisons to Carl Crawford.
Matt LaPorta - 1B MIL: La Porta was a redraft because he was drafted late by the Red Sox and Scott Boras asked for a boatload of money. He’s not a great defensive 1B, but it shouldn’t matter because he’ll have to move to LF anyway, with Fielder at 1B for the foreseeable future. He’ll be on the fast track and shouldn’t spend more than three years in the minors.
Daniel Moskos - LHP PIT: Moskos’ fastball is higher out of bullpen (97 at times). He has a good slider and it should put him on the fast track for closer job. If he was going to be a starter, he’d be up in tier 2 or 3, but he’s destined for the closer role.
Casey Weathers - RHP COL: Weathers led Vanderbilt in wins and saves, but should be a relief pitcher in the majors. He has a 91 MPH slider which will put him on a very fast route to the closer job. However, the Rockies already have two great closer options. He only projects this low because he won’t be starting in the majors.
Tier 4
Matt Dominguez - 3B FLA: Dominguez plays excellent defense, but obviously that shouldn’t matter to fantasy owners. He’s well polished and could be compared to Ryan Zimmerman in some ways. He projects for power to come and is the heir apparent to Miguel Cabrera’s job, the question is: how soon?
Devin Mesaraco - C CIN: Mesaraco had Tommy John surgery as a sophomore, but his injuries didn’t concern scouts. He’s good both offensively and defensively, so he won’t be changing positions. He hit above average with some power potential in high school. He has Russell Martin upside.
Kevin Ahrens - 3B TOR: Ahrens compares to Chipper Jones in that he’s a switch hitter with power. He comes in as SS, but will likely have to move to 3B in the majors. However, for obvious reasons Toronto likes his bat at SS more than 3B and may play him at SS in the minors until he proves he needs to be moved.
Blake Beavan - RHP TEX: Beaven’s hard slider is his best pitch. He also has a fastball in low 90s. In his senior year he only had 4 walks in 73 innings. He’s very competitive and will be an intimidating force once he develops. There are certain concerns about his mechanics, but he also has the intangible stuff. He performed for Team USA last summer and beat Cuba.
J.P. Arencibia - C/1B TOR: He’s a power bat who went to same high school as A-Rod and tied his HR record, but he’s not a great catcher. He could end up moving to 1B where he would hit for decent power and a decent average. However, the Blue Jays were in need of a catcher so they will most likely give him time to try and develop there. He compares to Javy Lopez in some facets.
Tim Alderson - RHP SF: Alderson has great command for a 6-7 body. In one game he threw 61 strikes out of 72 pitches. One of his biggest problems is that he only pitches out of stretch, so will have to work on that in the minors. His senior year he had 111 strikeouts and only four walks. To his advantage, The Giants have a great eye for pitchers and develop them well.
Mike Main - RHP/OF TEX: Main had one of best fastballs in high school, but he’s not physically imposing. He commanded his fastball and curveball even as the fastball touched 97 MPH. He’s a very good athlete and some teams would have taken him as a CF, but the Rangers will likely play him as a pitcher.
James Simmons - RHP OAK: Simmons commands his fastball better than anyone in college. He has above-average makeup and good instincts, but doesn't have dominant secondary pitch. His one problem may be getting two much of the strike zone and not missing enough bats.
Tier 5
Joe Savery - LHP PHI: Savery had a slow recovery from offseason surgery and was considered a top of 1st round type guy prior to the injury. His fastball has a 91-93 MPH range, and was leading the team in hitting as well. But, there’s no doubt he’ll be a pitcher instead of a 1B. He does have certain injury concerns because he's from Rice.
Chris Withrow - RHP LAD: He has a clean delivery which will not surprise any hitters. He’s developing a breaking pitch, and has a decent fastball. His body projects well, but will need time to develop. His father played AA, but couldn’t make it to the majors.
Aaron Poreda - LHP CWS: He touches 96-97 with his fastball and has good control and durability, but his secondary pitches are the problem. He should be in the starting rotation in the minors to help him develop additional pitches, but may be moved to the bullpen in the majors. He’s athletic and was a football player in high school but really favored baseball in college.
Peter Kozma - SS STL: He’s average to slightly above in every tool except for power. He compares well to David Eckstein: a smart player, good contact hitter, but not a power hitter. He projects as #2 hitter.
Nick Schmidt - LHP SD: A durable lefty innings-eater, Nick Schmidt compares to Andy Petttite on a good day. His fastball can touch 92 but is more consistently in 87-88 range. He’s not high ceiling front of rotation starter like many of the other pitchers taken in the first round. He’s seen as very safe, but his control is not great. He has a plus changeup, but no strikeout pitch. All in all, he’s a decent, but not great prospect.
Tier 1
David Price - LHP TB: Clearly the top fantasy prospect to come out of the 2007 draft, Price is consistently around 90-92 with his fastball and can touch 95 at times. He has a great mentality and will be on the fast track to the majors possibly as early as the end of this year.
Josh Vitters - 3B CHC: Vitters was the best overall bat in the draft. Most people thought he would go 2nd overall, but the Cubs nabbed him third despite having Aramis Ramirez locked up long term. He’s extremely polished for a high school player and won’t need an excessively long time in the minors. He possesses excellent bat speed and will hit for a decent average.
Mathew Wieters - C BAL: Wieters was one of the better known prospects coming into the draft. Perhaps this is because of the comparisons to Jason Varitek and Joe Mauer. He’s a 6-5, switch hitting catcher carried by his bat. However, he is not defensively inept and can handle the staff well enough to stay at catcher. He’s the first significant Boras player selected by Orioles. A true once in a decade type of Talent.
Rick Porcello - RHP DET: Porcello was a Boras client and slipped in the draft due to signability conerns. He has extremely high upside and is probably the second most promising player in the draft after Price. He draws comparisons to Justin Verlander. He has a good arsenal including a 95-96 fastball, curve, slider and change. He’s already a top 20 prospect in the minors.
Tier 2
Jarrod Parker - RHP ARI: He has the best high school fastball, mid 90s with quick arm, of the class. And he is the most polished high school pitcher. He’s been compared to the likes of Roy Oswalt, Tim Lincecum, and Scott Kazmir. He’ll be placed on the fast track and should reach the majors quickly, for a high school prospect.
Beau Mills - 1B/3B CLE: Mills possesses excellent power to all fields and earned the reputation of being the most predictable power hitter in the draft. However, his defense is questionable and he won’t play 3rd base in the majors. According to scouts, he plays the game "the right way." His Dad also played in the MLB.
Phillipe Aumont - RHP SEA: Aumont is 6-7, 225 lbs and physically imposing. His fast ball reaches 95-96 MPH. He projects as a front of rotation starter. In the worst case scenario, he could be shifted to the bullpen and become a dominant closer.
Mike Moustakas - 3B KC: The number two overall pick in the draft comes directly from high school as a SS, but doesn’t have the defensive ability to stay there in the majors. He’ll make the move to third base and possesses 20-30 homerun power, which lands him at the bottom of tier two. The Royals will give him plenty of time to develop in the minors with Alex Gordon blocking his way.
Jason Heyward - OF ATL: Heyward was one of the best pure power bats in the draft. He’s drawn Comparison to Fred McGriff and Frank Thomas. He posses high upside and knows how to work the plate. This is the type of guy you can envision hitting 40 homeruns at some point during his career.
Andrew Brackman - RHP NYY: Brackman has the best fastball in the college class and has plenty of natural athleticism: He played basketball for 2 years in college. His elbow is a question, but when healthy, can touch 99. He would have been a high first round pick if not for the injury concerns. His track to the majors may be slow because Tommy John surgery is a possibility. In addition, he needs to work on his curve, and is more of a college project than a polished pitcher. All together, he has very high upside.
Ross Detwiler - LHP WAS: Detwiler possesses a mid-90s fastball and a good knuckle-curve. He has two plus pitches and is trying to put on bulk. His size is the only real concern and he could be the 2nd best college lefty in the draft.
Tier 3
Madison Bumgarner - LHP SF: Bumgarner can get his fastball up to 97 MPH, but his command on his breaking pitch is questionable. He has lots of natural athleticism and might be able to reach 100 MPH on the fastball. The Giants have a good scouting team and develop pitchers well (Lincecum, Cain, Lowry), so his future is bright.
Ben Revere - OF MIN: Revere is one of the better runners in the draft and has solid to average bat speed. He projects as a leadoff man with great speed. He’s not ranked as a top prospect, but in fantasy baseball terms, he is.
Wendell Fairley - OF SF: Fairley hit for average and power in high school with potential for growth. He split time between baseball and football so he was limited in exposure which may be, in part, a reason he wasn’t drafted until the end of the first round. He’s a good base runner with comparisons to Carl Crawford.
Matt LaPorta - 1B MIL: La Porta was a redraft because he was drafted late by the Red Sox and Scott Boras asked for a boatload of money. He’s not a great defensive 1B, but it shouldn’t matter because he’ll have to move to LF anyway, with Fielder at 1B for the foreseeable future. He’ll be on the fast track and shouldn’t spend more than three years in the minors.
Daniel Moskos - LHP PIT: Moskos’ fastball is higher out of bullpen (97 at times). He has a good slider and it should put him on the fast track for closer job. If he was going to be a starter, he’d be up in tier 2 or 3, but he’s destined for the closer role.
Casey Weathers - RHP COL: Weathers led Vanderbilt in wins and saves, but should be a relief pitcher in the majors. He has a 91 MPH slider which will put him on a very fast route to the closer job. However, the Rockies already have two great closer options. He only projects this low because he won’t be starting in the majors.
Tier 4
Matt Dominguez - 3B FLA: Dominguez plays excellent defense, but obviously that shouldn’t matter to fantasy owners. He’s well polished and could be compared to Ryan Zimmerman in some ways. He projects for power to come and is the heir apparent to Miguel Cabrera’s job, the question is: how soon?
Devin Mesaraco - C CIN: Mesaraco had Tommy John surgery as a sophomore, but his injuries didn’t concern scouts. He’s good both offensively and defensively, so he won’t be changing positions. He hit above average with some power potential in high school. He has Russell Martin upside.
Kevin Ahrens - 3B TOR: Ahrens compares to Chipper Jones in that he’s a switch hitter with power. He comes in as SS, but will likely have to move to 3B in the majors. However, for obvious reasons Toronto likes his bat at SS more than 3B and may play him at SS in the minors until he proves he needs to be moved.
Blake Beavan - RHP TEX: Beaven’s hard slider is his best pitch. He also has a fastball in low 90s. In his senior year he only had 4 walks in 73 innings. He’s very competitive and will be an intimidating force once he develops. There are certain concerns about his mechanics, but he also has the intangible stuff. He performed for Team USA last summer and beat Cuba.
J.P. Arencibia - C/1B TOR: He’s a power bat who went to same high school as A-Rod and tied his HR record, but he’s not a great catcher. He could end up moving to 1B where he would hit for decent power and a decent average. However, the Blue Jays were in need of a catcher so they will most likely give him time to try and develop there. He compares to Javy Lopez in some facets.
Tim Alderson - RHP SF: Alderson has great command for a 6-7 body. In one game he threw 61 strikes out of 72 pitches. One of his biggest problems is that he only pitches out of stretch, so will have to work on that in the minors. His senior year he had 111 strikeouts and only four walks. To his advantage, The Giants have a great eye for pitchers and develop them well.
Mike Main - RHP/OF TEX: Main had one of best fastballs in high school, but he’s not physically imposing. He commanded his fastball and curveball even as the fastball touched 97 MPH. He’s a very good athlete and some teams would have taken him as a CF, but the Rangers will likely play him as a pitcher.
James Simmons - RHP OAK: Simmons commands his fastball better than anyone in college. He has above-average makeup and good instincts, but doesn't have dominant secondary pitch. His one problem may be getting two much of the strike zone and not missing enough bats.
Tier 5
Joe Savery - LHP PHI: Savery had a slow recovery from offseason surgery and was considered a top of 1st round type guy prior to the injury. His fastball has a 91-93 MPH range, and was leading the team in hitting as well. But, there’s no doubt he’ll be a pitcher instead of a 1B. He does have certain injury concerns because he's from Rice.
Chris Withrow - RHP LAD: He has a clean delivery which will not surprise any hitters. He’s developing a breaking pitch, and has a decent fastball. His body projects well, but will need time to develop. His father played AA, but couldn’t make it to the majors.
Aaron Poreda - LHP CWS: He touches 96-97 with his fastball and has good control and durability, but his secondary pitches are the problem. He should be in the starting rotation in the minors to help him develop additional pitches, but may be moved to the bullpen in the majors. He’s athletic and was a football player in high school but really favored baseball in college.
Peter Kozma - SS STL: He’s average to slightly above in every tool except for power. He compares well to David Eckstein: a smart player, good contact hitter, but not a power hitter. He projects as #2 hitter.
Nick Schmidt - LHP SD: A durable lefty innings-eater, Nick Schmidt compares to Andy Petttite on a good day. His fastball can touch 92 but is more consistently in 87-88 range. He’s not high ceiling front of rotation starter like many of the other pitchers taken in the first round. He’s seen as very safe, but his control is not great. He has a plus changeup, but no strikeout pitch. All in all, he’s a decent, but not great prospect.
