Sunday, February 24, 2008

Cincinnati Reds

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL PIT

Cincinnati is the home of the home run. For many years, Coors Field and thin Rocky Mountain Air made Colorado the premier power-hitting team in the game, but Great American Ballpark and the sluggers in Cincy have taken over the title. With that in mind, look to draft mostly hitters, rather than pitchers, from this team.

Lineup:
  • CF Ryan Freel (Jay Bruce)
  • SS Alex Gonzalez
  • RF Ken Griffey, Jr.
  • 2B Brandon Phillips
  • LF Adam Dunn
  • 3B Edwin Encarnacion
  • 1B Joey Votto
  • C David Ross
Rotation:
  • Aaron Harang
  • Bronson Arroyo
  • Matt Belisle
  • Homer Bailey
  • Edinson Volquez
Closer: Francisco Cordero

Thoughts...

It's not clear who will play CF, Ryan Freel or Jay Bruce. Whomever starts will be very valuable in fantasy; Freel will give you steals and runs as long as he stays healthy, while Bruce (the number one ranked prospect in baseball this year) will give more power. If Bruce wins the job, he probably won't hit from the leadoff spot, but it's unclear how the lineup will be reshuffled. Keep in mind that Dusty Baker is partial to playing veterans when drafting Bruce. 

Actually, between Griffey and Freel, the chances of a Reds outfielder getting hurt are 99%. So draft Bruce, but know he might not be starting on Opening Day. Either way, he'll be a force sooner rather than later.

Joey Votto has become a popular fantasy name, and after a big September last year it's completely justified. The Dusty Factor still looms over Votto, though, as the Reds exercised the option on Scott Hatteberg. Ideally, Votto will win this job outright, but watch this situation in spring training if you've got your eye on Votto at first.

Aaron Harang is Mr. Reliable, a trait that is vastly underestimated in fantasy baseball, in my opinion. He has 200 strikeouts and an ERA under 4.00 in back-to-back seasons, and even though his home games are in a terrible pitcher's park, he does get to face the Pirates and Cardinals regularly. Similarly, Bronson Arroyo is underrated going into this season. He's no stud, but he's barely being drafted, and I think you can count on him for 150 strikeouts and an ERA around 4.00. He's certainly good enough to get drafted late to round out a staff. Homer Bailey could provide some statistics, but it's more difficult for me to predict that he'll be reliable, especially in such an unfriendly environment.

Brandon Phillips continues to climb closer to the first round, and with good reason. 30/30/100/100 at a position where there's not a lot of depth is outstanding. Adam Dunn is a little one-dimensional for my taste, but he's hit exactly 40 homeruns in 3 straight seasons. You can't buy that kind of consistency, so you just have to hope he doesn't destroy your team's average. Junior Griffey played a whole season but faded badly as the year went on. He's definitely productive when healthy, but his age shows as the season wears on. 

The Reds definitely provide some valuable names in fantasy. They've got the all-around producers and the one-dimensional players, but each type can be an important part of a championship fantasy team. 

Check out the Ask the Experts post for more information on Cincinnati in the upcoming season.

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