The Fifth Pick
I'd like to start by thanking all my readers out there. This blog has only been up for a little over two weeks now, and the feedback has all been great. I've run into many of you on Mock Draft Central, and as a blogger who randomly meets a fan of his site such occasions are rewarding. Another benefit of the blog has been an invitation to an "Expert League" with several other bloggers, and the draft is this Sunday.
What I'd like to ask of you is some arguments for who I should take with the fifth overall pick in the draft. The league is a little different than the format we usually suggest here (C C 1B 2B SS 3B MI CI OF OF OF OF OF Util, 9 Pitchers) though I think for the first round such change is negligible.
Tim Dierkes, author of RotoAuthority, recently posted the same question about the fourth pick over at his site, prefacing the debate with the likelihood of taking whoever is left out of Wright, Ramirez, or Reyes. I'm not big on taking Rollins or Holliday or Pujols... so I guess I'll be discontent. If you were in this worst pick, who would you take?
Labels: Expert Drafts
posted by Zachary Piso at
11:11 AM
13 Comments:
That's a very tough spot to pick from. In our expert draft, we saw the sixth pick play a strategy of taking OF in the first four rounds - building a team with Holliday, Beltran, and Alex Rios would be reasonable from that spot, and it would give you a nice foundation. I would probably grab Holliday, unless you wanted to reach for Carl Crawford early and grab David Ortiz when the draft came back around. That could give you a blend of power and steals, as well as a high average, that would be an excellent foundation. If you really don't like Rollins, Holliday, or Pujols, then don't take them.
My only issue with taking Holliday is that the best players available with my 2nd and 3rd pick look to be outfielders. Taking three outfielders with my first three picks, or taking an inferior player to avoid that, hurts my roster flexibility come mid-round and I have a lot of faith in some sleepers in the late rounds.
What are the odds of Rollins putting up numbers similar to last year? I always have problems with Runs and Steals, and he would provide a decent foundation early on. Also, If Pujols plays the full season, will he immediately represent a top two player? In my opinion, he still might only be among the top 4 or 5, meaning that I gain nothing by adopting the risk.
So, that counts Pujols out. Any other ideas?
Good article. I read Tim's post earlier and agree with you that the fourth pick is perhaps the easiest (other than maybe #1). I agree that the fifth pick is not ideal, unless of course somebody does something crazy with one of the first three picks.
I never pick a pitcher this early, but I'd consider Santana here. I'd also consider Miggy because I think he's the safest pick here to produce first-round value and I'm a subscriber to the theory that you don't win drafts in the first couple rounds, but you can lose them if your early picks flop.
Assuming Wright is off the board, personally, I'd go with Holiday in a heartbeat. I've had him two years in a row and would love him again this year. Just an all around fantasy stud. But if you think his value isn't that high, I'd like to second the suggestion of Cabrera. Fantastic combination of power and average.
Well, if Wright is gone and it sounds like he will be, I think you have three choices:
Holliday, Cabrera or Utley. I do not think you can go wrong with any of them. All solid, with a slight nod to Utley. His numbers are a lot better than the next closest group of guys at that position. You could easily grab an OF or 3B in the next two or three rounds that wouldn't be that far of Holiday or Cabrera. According to most the next two 2B off the board are Phillips and Upton. I still have reservations about taking those guys in the first two rounds. Some argue about the depth of 2B this year. I think Utley is an absolute stud in a great lineup. the same can be said for Holiday and Cabrera. Those guys guys play positions where there is much more depth.
My thoughts on Miguel Cabrera are that he will not drastically outperform Aramis Ramirez, who I could grab with my third pick. Also, I don't particularly think Holliday will drastically outperform guys like Vladimir Guerrero, who I could get with my second pick.
Let's say I plan on getting Guerrero and Granderson with my second and third picks (which I may not, but the mock draft with the same people turned out that way), who is the correct pick? My thoughts are either Santana or Cabrera oddly enough. Any other opinions?
I think you just proved my point. Sorry for being anonymous. I have to get my google password.
Ramirez not much worse than Cabrera. Holliday not much better than Vlad, Hot Carl, Beltran, etc. Utley is your man...unless you really like Santana. I do not like him right there. You could get someone close to his ability in the second, third or even fourth round. Plus Johan is going to get hurt this year. Too much of a risk to take him here.
Haha not sure I'm as convinced of Johan's impending injury, but you've sold me... sort of. Utley is the logical pick there, but since I have too much faith in 2B depth, I'm going to trade up to second pick. I'll probably take Reyes. Thoughts?
Personally, I wouldn't take Santana until the end of the first round. Let someone else bear the injury risk, plus I like everyday players with my first 3 picks. If Utley is available, I would grab him despite his injuries last season. Cabrera would be another option, as I expect him to put up big numbers in Detroit this year. Outfield depth is important, but assuming you can snag Vlad and Granderson in 2nd and 3rd rounds, then I suggest going for either the only top tier 2B or a great offensive corner infielder like Cabrera.
First, I'd like to say that the switch to second pick was finalized, and I'm pretty happy with it (though I'll trade down to fourth if I can). Second, I wanted to summarize a few of the arguments for fifth pick, since many of you will face the same predicament.
Pujols - Drafts are won in rounds 6-12, with the first five rounds being a time to get low-risk, consistent and dependable guys. Pujols has been consistent and dependable, but there is too much risk this year. Paying for him at fifth is about where he will perform if he stays healthy in the weak lineup, and hence there is no risk-reward upside.
Holliday - Holliday has been great, but with so many good outfielders coming back around-all of which could perform at his equal-he just isn't a great pick in the first round.
Rollins - Buying Rollins now would be buying high, since last year will prove to be his career year. 20 HR and 30 SB is more likely than last year's 30-40 campaign.
Utley - The second of the duo, Utley is clearly the best second basemen available. You'll get .300, 25+ HR, 15+ SBs, all the while racking up 100 runs and RBI. Probably the "smartest" pick.
Cabrera - Same as Holliday, Cabrera just isn't that much better than 3rd and possibly even 4th round value. Despite the hype of moving into a great Detroit lineup, Cabrera shouldn't go in the first five picks.
Santana - Has the best chance to be MV fantasy P in my opinion, but also the best chance of these guys to be a bust (except arguably Pujols). I still have a feeling the guy is going to explode for something like 22 wins, 170 K and a 2.50 ERA
Nice. Glad I was sort of able to sell you. (I am formerly anonymous.)
Now your debate should be Reyes, Hanley or Wright. Reyes vs. Hanley is an interesting debate. I think RotoAuthority had debate on it a while back, with Tim opting for Reyes. A lot are down on Hanley because of left shoulder surgery and no line-up protection. After running my projections, I actually have Hanley slightly more valuable. However, I have Wright worth more than both of them. We can also go back to the 3B glut here though. Is Wright that much better than Cabrera? Obviously his speed is huge. I do think you are in a much better position here though. All three guys are better than taking Utley 6th.
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If Santana puts up those numbers, how much worse is Peavy? Fewer wins, similar ERA, maybe more Ks? Is it worth passing on one of those 1st tier of bats?
I like Wright, but I think Zimmerman and Atkins in the 4th/5th are suitable, and I think the "steals glut" is more pronounced than the "third base glut" looking into my second and third picks. While Wright is the more balanced player, I can't get a second and third balanced player to complement him. Rather, Reyes for SBs and runs with two OFs for power and RBI is the better bet, and the strategy I will probably employ.
My Team
C Soto
C Paulino
1B Gordon
2B Hill
3B Zimmerman
SS Reyes
CI Longoria
MI Lugo
OF Berkman
OF Guerrero
OF Sheffield
OF Taveras
OF Duncan
Util Thomas
Bench Akinori Iwamura
P Beckett
P Matsuzaka
P Pedro
P Penny
P Escobar
P Maddux
P Garland
P F. Rodriguez
P Rivera
P Sherrill
P Okajima
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