Thursday, February 14, 2008

How to Mock Draft

I have made the first step--I am no longer in denial. I have an addiction to fantasy baseball, and my fix during the offseason are mock drafts.

Okay, this is a little dramatic. But most of the people you will meet on the messaging board of the mock drafts will depict such a struggle. I have found a cure, or at least a way to minimize the symptoms. And it is one of the most important lessons of this blog.

When I first started mock drafting, I made the mistake of trusting fate. I would go in with no strategy save the players I wanted to target, grab them if someone else didn't first, and consider it a successful draft if my team looked good at the end. The problem is, every team looks good in February. During the voting period offered afterward, I've had the same pick chosen as my best and my worst, I've seen compliments and insults, and I've seen one team that I considered among the best voted as the worst. So what can you do?

Follow the scientific method. Come up with a strategy before hand, such as "wait as long as possible for pitching" or "ignore position scarcity" that will serve as your hypothesis. Follow that idea, and afterward look at your team. Is it as good as the one (or several) you drafted with the strategy "I love pitching" or "the team with Chase Utley wins"? If so, adopt that strategy, and go from there.

When I draft, I end up with what I feel is the best team (as do others via voting) consistently, so I know I'm prepared for this coming season. I still try to make slight changes; anything to give you another edge. But remember, go in with an idea, and follow it. If it made sense in the first place, it will probably help more than randomly drafting. Even if your strategy is "draft the best player available regardless of position" its enough to reflect on later. And once you know you've got a system that works, it helps with the addiction.

At least a little.

Labels:

1 Comments:

Anonymous Chad said...

Great article. I agree completely. My strategy (which I use both for fantasy football and baseball) is rank all of my players early in the spring (which I plan to do while killing time at the in-laws this weekend), leaving sufficient time for a few mocks before my drafts in March. I will typically do a mock or to with the "draft the best player available" tactic you discussed, mostly just to get a feel for where players are falling in general. I then do several mocks as you discussed, each with a specific research question (to borrow your scientific method analogy - I'm a college professor after all). I'll try things such as:

1. What does my team look like if I take a big starter (Santana, Peavy) early?
2. Can I wait until Rounds 10-12 before I take a closer?
3. How long can I wait before I need to get a second-tier catcher?
4. Can I stock up on all big bats early and wait until the double-digit rounds to pick up base stealers?

Thanks for the article. Glad to know that I'm not the only one thinking along these lines.

February 15, 2008 11:37 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home





Untitled 1
   
  About Us - Contact - Advertising - Privacy Policy - Copyright Disclaimer
Copyright © 2008 Front Office Sports Enterprise. All Rights Reserved.