Thursday, February 21, 2008

Sleepers: The Swingers

Sleepers can mean several things, and I usually define it as players being taken much too late by my projections. However, for the purposes of this blog, I'm going to look at those players being taken outside of the first 210 picks, which for a 10-team Yahoo! or ESPN league means going undrafted, and for a 12 team, 23 roster league (276 picks) is pretty much the bench picks and free agency. So, starting with position players, I'll look at batters who I expect to have an impact on someone's roster come 2008...

Catchers: Justin Towles (ADP 215)
  • This one is easy. Towles is going undrafted, while we have him as the ninth best catcher available. Even if he goes .280, 10, 10, it's better than most catchers. No one depends on the position for power, so that kind of balance the decent average that is expected make him a distinguished sleeper heading into next season.
First Base: Joey Votto (247), Casey Kotchman (272), Conor Jackson (280)
  • Votto is another guy that could grab you steals from an unlikely position, did very well in limited time last year, and plays at a friendly park. Kotchman and Jackson are playing for established offenses that are looking to improve heading into next year. All three should be considered serviceable utility/DH guys.
Second Base: Freddy Sanchez (267)
  • Sanchez is two years removed from a batting title, and while I wouldn't expect such heights, he's nearly as good as the other second basemen being drafted late. Still, unless he shows a promising April, he's at best a backup to someone like Aaron Hill or Dustin Pedroia
Shortstop: Julio Lugo (226)
  • Lugo is looking to lead off, if he can hold off Jacoby Ellsbury, for one of the best offenses in the majors. His batting average before the break was abysmal, but he batted a more than respectable .280 after the Summer Classic. 8 HRs and 33 steals from a guy batting around .270 and .280 is a steal (no pun intended). Except for last year, Lugo has never batted for less than .275 while playing for an American League team (all AL East mind you... TB 2003-2006)
Third Base: Hank Blalock (216), Evan Longoria (232), Kevin Kouzmanoff (235)
  • Blalock showed game after returning from surgery last season. Longoria could be the next Ryan Braun, and with nowhere near the investment it took to get Alex Gordon last year. Kouzmanoff is rarely drafted, but with double digit homeruns after the break (11 Post-All Star, 18 total, 13 away from Petco) he could provide an interesting "fantasy platoon" to play in away games.
Outfield: J.D. Drew (242), Rick Ankiel (248), Nate McClouth (249), Lastings Milledge (297), Wily Mo Pena (299), Luke Scott (343), Felix Pie (368)
  • Drew is a decent 3rd outfielder who is getting no respect. He could easily bat for 20+ HRs if he stays healthy; if he doesn't, the rest of these guys should be in that free agency.
  • Players I think have a chance to hit 25+ HRs (in order of confidence): Luke Scott, Rick Ankiel, Wily Mo Pena
  • Players I think have a chance to steal 25 bags without compromising other categories: Felix Pie, Nate McClouth
  • Lastings Milledge has been projected by some sources to go 20-20. I think 15-15 is more likely, but on an improved Nationals lineup he's worth a look.

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