Toronto Blue Jays
Previous Team Analyses: TB
Lineup
- SS David Eckstein
- 1B Lyle Overbay
- RF Alex Rios
- DH Frank Thomas
- CF Vernon Wells
- 3B Scott Rolen
- 2B Aaron Hill
- C Gregg Zaun
- LF Reed Johnson/Matt Stairs
Rotation
- Roy Halladay
- AJ Burnett
- Dustin McGowan
- Shaun Marcum
- Jesse Litch
Closer Jeremy Accardo/BJ Ryan
Thoughts...
First and foremost, avoid Toronto closers like the plague. Generally only half of the closers at the start of the season are closing at year's end, and Ryan's return from Tommy John surgery at some point this year guarantees this will be the case for Toronto. You could blow a roster spot trying to get Accardo and Ryan in a draft, but even that doesn't seem worthwhile to me. Ryan will be coming back from surgery, and very few pitchers have any success in their first year back. Wait until 2009.
Alex Rios is an outstanding outfielder, and he's probably still low enough on the radar that he could be your number 2. The biggest problem for him is that the Blue Jays rarely, if ever, steal bases, so his potential to go 20/20 or better is wasted by his team's conservative play on the basepaths. CBS likes him to go .300/30/100/100/20, which isn't out of the question and really is a great statline. Don't draft him too high expecting these numbers, of course, but know that they could be on the horizon.
Trading Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus might've been big news five years ago, but not today. Rolen will most likely get hurt again, but even if he's healthy, he's not going to be clubbing 30 HRs ever again. Third is too deep a position to worry about this aging veteran.
Aaron Hill is an interesting guy. He's getting some hype as a good pick at second base, and he definitely has the potential to build on 17 HR last year. He's one of the few Jays not coming off an injury, too, which definitely makes him valuable.
Will the real Vernon Wells please stand up? Two years ago he was a fantasy force, producing in every category, and last year he tanked. Hopefully the shoulder injury accounts for the drop-off. Of course, as is always the case, the real Wells is somewhere in between his career highs and lows. He belongs in the third tier, but in my opinion, you're more likely to get a big bounceback from Andruw Jones or Jason Bay than Wells.
Roy Halladay is still an excellent pitcher, baseball-wise and fantasy-wise. The improved Jays' infield defense can only help him. He's not a 200 strikeout guy by any stretch, but he has the potential for a WHIP in the 1.10 range, which is fantastic over a full season. Dustin McGowan also had a phenomenal second half of last season. If you put his numbers over a whole season, they look fantastic. If he's available and you're looking for a 3 or 4, grab him.
Overall, injuries are still a concern. If the infielders get injured and the defense slips, that goes back to guys like Halladay and McGowan, even if both are perfectly healthy. If Frank Thomas finally goes down, the whole lineup gets a little weaker, with Rios being the most obvious victim after losing his protection. Keep injuries to everyone on the diamond in mind when looking to draft any Jays this season.
Labels: Team Analyses
posted by Pete Abbate at
7:55 PM
3 Comments:
Not sure I agree that Accardo and BJ Ryan are undraftable. You can get Ryan as a last round flyer a lot of the time and if he starts on the DL you can invest a real roster spot on someone else. If he returns to form, he'll be the best pick of the draft. Tommy John "survivors" have been coming back faster and healthier every year, and I'd trust a reliever to come back strong over a SP (cough cough Liriano). Obviously, the latter is worth drafting, so I think the logic points to Ryan being a possible late round bargain.
Accardo is interesting because he's, at best, a great setup man pick. He should get a couple saves in April (although Ryan is expected to be there on opening day-I'm not buying that), and otherwise he'll pad your peripherals. In a deep league he's a good pick to gain some April saves and the occasional throughout the season, otherwise I agree he isn't worth drafting.
I don't buy BJ being ready on opening day... mostly, though, the reason I say he isn't worth drafting is because I don't think he'll be consistent. He may have some good outings, but with power pitchers a lot of times control is an issue. If Ryan has even a couple outings where he walks two or three and gets pulled, to me that strains your peripherals, whereas you need closers especially to make those strong. Maybe it's a personal bias, but I feel like at best, the guy will still cause a lot of headaches. To me, fliers are better spent elsewhere. Like I said, I'm waiting til 2009.
i think alex rios might be taken a little earlier than he should be simple because i dont see this as an overall productive lineup. while the lineup does have a lot of big names, i still think that the lineup will not perform on a consistent basis. Most of the lineup consists of guys shooting for the moon with big bats and not going for averages. I think Rios will produce, but not amongst the elite players and will probably produce a barry bonds type season where home runs are skewed compared to rbis(when he hit 73, he only average 1.7 rbis a home run and hit 73 home runs and about 135 rbis) since he doesnt take steroids , i dont expect that type of performance and dont think he will be a top tier selection
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