Trendspotting: Adam Dunn, Brian Roberts
I've been looking over the results of the latest Sports Blogger Draft (Zach participated but I did not as they were looking to diversify the number of blogs represented), as well as the Mock Draft Central Expert Draft, and Adam Dunn and Brian Roberts stand out as one-dimensional players who might be just a little out of place.
Adam Dunn: Zach already pointed out that he went way too early in the Sports Blogger Draft. Early in Round 3 is far too high for a guy that will destroy a team's batting average. The team had a solid foundation with Johan Santana and Mark Teixiera, and I understand the desire to secure a solid outfielder in a 5 OF league, but I just don't think it makes sense to take him there. Russell Martin would've made the most sense. My guess is the blogger wanted Granderson and panicked slightly after he was taken, but it wasn't a smart pick. Dunn hung around until Round 4 at Mock Draft Central, but I still would prefer Manny Ramirez or Nick Markakis that early. Cheap homeruns can be had late (Wily Mo Pena or JD Drew, Benji Molina in a 2 catcher league), but it's much more difficult to find a guy who can make up for a deficiency in batting average. If Dunn goes this high in your league, just stay away at all costs.
Brian Roberts: I mostly want to talk about the latest trade rumors that involve him going to the Chicago Cubs. If he gets to hit in front of Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez on a day-to-day basis, I think I'd be willing to take him in Dunn's spot in the Blogger Draft, early on in Round 3. He currently goes in an appropriate spot, at the end of Round 3/beginning of Round 4. I like pairing him with Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard, because he is guaranteed to steal you bases and score you runs. Interestingly, though, he was paired with Carl Crawford in both expert drafts. I'm not huge on this draft strategy, but if you make it, you'll be in an ideal trading position at midseason. You should have a huge lead in steals, and don't be afraid to pull the trigger to fill whatever need is still on the board. The more I think about this strategy, the more I like the look of a team with Crawford, Fielder, and Roberts at the core. Look for these three if you're at the back end of your draft.
Adam Dunn: Zach already pointed out that he went way too early in the Sports Blogger Draft. Early in Round 3 is far too high for a guy that will destroy a team's batting average. The team had a solid foundation with Johan Santana and Mark Teixiera, and I understand the desire to secure a solid outfielder in a 5 OF league, but I just don't think it makes sense to take him there. Russell Martin would've made the most sense. My guess is the blogger wanted Granderson and panicked slightly after he was taken, but it wasn't a smart pick. Dunn hung around until Round 4 at Mock Draft Central, but I still would prefer Manny Ramirez or Nick Markakis that early. Cheap homeruns can be had late (Wily Mo Pena or JD Drew, Benji Molina in a 2 catcher league), but it's much more difficult to find a guy who can make up for a deficiency in batting average. If Dunn goes this high in your league, just stay away at all costs.
Brian Roberts: I mostly want to talk about the latest trade rumors that involve him going to the Chicago Cubs. If he gets to hit in front of Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez on a day-to-day basis, I think I'd be willing to take him in Dunn's spot in the Blogger Draft, early on in Round 3. He currently goes in an appropriate spot, at the end of Round 3/beginning of Round 4. I like pairing him with Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard, because he is guaranteed to steal you bases and score you runs. Interestingly, though, he was paired with Carl Crawford in both expert drafts. I'm not huge on this draft strategy, but if you make it, you'll be in an ideal trading position at midseason. You should have a huge lead in steals, and don't be afraid to pull the trigger to fill whatever need is still on the board. The more I think about this strategy, the more I like the look of a team with Crawford, Fielder, and Roberts at the core. Look for these three if you're at the back end of your draft.
Labels: Trendspotting
posted by Pete Abbate at
1:01 PM
9 Comments:
nice post. i'm the idiot who took dunn in the 3rd round of the draft. i got thrown off in the 2nd round when Carlos Lee was taken right before me and I moved to a 1B (Teixiera). Hadn't planned for that and was unprepared for the OF options when it came back to me in round 3. Had no thoughts on Granderson. Actually debated taking Webb or Aramis Ramirez. But I felt good about Atkins in round 4 (got him) and a starter in the 5th (got Haren). I'm not happy w/ Dunn but, honestly, I'm not broken up about it. I think he's progressed to hitting .250-.260 which puts less drain on the average. not really sure if he's much more of a reach than granderson or rios whose value is inflated based on less than guaranteed SBs...
Even as a Cubs fan, I wouldn't draft Roberts in the early third round even after the trade. Last year was a huge year for him, and paying that high for a second basemen's career season seems strange. If he gets trade, mid-third round is plausible, just like how Rollins shouldn't go until the later picks of the first round.
At Wrigley, he's good to duplicate last year's power numbers of 12 HRs, with a slight decrease in RBI moving to the NL and batting after the pitcher (though some of the Cubs' pitchers can hit...). I can't see him stealing 50 bags again; something like 37-40 seems more right (his previous career high was 36, albeit in a shortened season, and he's only stole more than thirty twice-albeit the past two season). He should score a few more runs with his OBP and that lineup. Still, I'd rather grab Kinsler or Cano two rounds later and take an outfielder in the third round.
To Rudy,
I agree that Rios was overrated, and I see the dilemma you were in considering that you had to take an OF and were basically choosing between Dunn, Ordonez, Markakis, Abreu, and Manny. Of those guys, Dunn was probably the best pick. I guess you'd have been better off waiting a round, but then you got Atkins (and eternally pissed me off - good pick), so it worked out okay for you. I think the real issue was missing out on speed and having to take Pierre, which just looks bad. However, I like the picks of Francoeur and having Teixeira, a quality first basemen, was big in this league.
The only thing that might have been better was taking Ichiro or Beltran. I'm not particularly high on the latter, but taking Santana in the first means you have to be flexible with your needs, and Beltran is a more all around player. Then you could have waited to take your second pitcher (Haren) and taken Pena there. Still, you recovered nicely from Lee going earlier than anyone expected.
hey zach -
good points. i agree. dunn and pierre are generally guys i shy away from. i felt like i had to go with pierre, though, given my lack of team speed. i mentioned on my razzball post that i felt speed was overvalued in the draft. i suppose you could look at it this way - combine dunn and pierre and you've got granderson and rios.
and don't you have taveras? he's pierre minus 15 SBs...
i hate ichiro but beltran or guerrero are intriguing picks over teixiera...
just ran the stats using CHONE projections from fangraphs.com.
interesting stuff...
Dunn/Pierre - 186/41/162/57/.273
Granderson/Rios - 199/39/147/32/.282
this doesn't change the fact i'm less than thrilled with dunn and pierre but it's hard to argue with the results...
i think dunn in the 3rd is way too early but i also think people are, generally, way to hard on dunn. from all the assessments of numbers i've read and ran myself, his 40 home runs, 5 steals, and 100/100 help you far more than his .250 average hurts. sure you'll need an ichiro or even a pierre on your team to help with average and steals, but dunn, i think, is a perennial great value just because the fantasy world detests low batting average. of course, .215 doesn't help anyone, but i hope he's beyond that. his bb/k was as high as it's ever been in the second half last year and his average was consistently over .270 during that span.
Rudy, I don't mean to rip you a new one for one pick - I've panicked after seeing a name I wanted go off the board and had missteps myself. I like the projections of a Dunn/Pierre team vs. a Rios/Granderson team, and it basically proves that you need to balance out a roster no matter who you take. Any thoughts on the idea of making up for a lack of power vs. making up for a low average with your late round picks?
Overall I like your team a lot - your pitching staff is so deep. Your middle infield suffers a bit because of it but you still have nice depth and the ability to deal pitching as necessary to make improvements.
FWIW, Rudy, I was hoping Lee would fall to my picks at 24/25 or Teixeira. I ended up with BJ Upton and Jake Peavy.
Hey Pete -
No worries - I agree with your post. It goes to show you have to prepare for every draft scenario and I hadn't dealt w/ one where I didn't get either Holliday in the 1st (gambling on Peavy in 2nd) or C-Lee in the 2nd.
Thanks for the assessment on the team. I'm feeling pretty good about it too (partic. the pitching) It's easy to get hung up on a player's stat balance vs. the overall team stat balance (i.e., a HR specialist + a SB/AVG specialist are often cheaper than two balanced guys). Perhaps b/c of Dunn, I didn't have to focus on HR and could draft solid 5-category guys like Damon and Melky instead of guys like Ankiel or Duncan who will hurt in AVG and SB.
I think you have to concentrate on value with your late picks - obviously factoring in the positions you need. I would've loved a .300 SS but Khalil offers great HR/RBI value. I didn't need Youkilis (he's my UTIL) but he offers solid contributions in 4 categories. All I'll say for average in later rounds is avoid taking too many low BA guys...
Eric -
Lotsa love out there for El Caballo...
I think Peavy was the best value of the top 25 picks. If I knew Peavy was going to last that long (I suspected didn't know for sure), I would've drafted Holliday and taken Peavy #2.
As for BJ, I'd like him on my team (as opposed to Dirty Sanchez) but I'd have taken Berkman instead...
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