Ask the Experts: Anaheim Angel

Our friends over at RotoProfessor recently had the opportunity to pose five questions to Bill Plunkett, a beat writer who follows the Los Angeles Angels for the Orange County Register. He provided us with some in depth answers about a team that I feel has a lot more question marks than most analysts care to admit.

• Do you think that Torii Hunter will provide the protection the Angel have been seeking for Vladimir Guerrero or do you think the team is still in need of another big hitter?
  
• Bill Plunkett: I don’t think Vlad needs protection. He does fine on his own. However, I still think there is a big gap between the offensive firepower they have in Detroit and Boston and New York and Cleveland, too, I guess. I don’t think Torii Hunter alone bridges that gap. Torii Hunter plus a healthy Garret Anderson (a highly unlikely pipe dream at this point in his career) plus a full season from Howie Kendrick plus continued development by Casey Kotchman? Maybe that gives the lineup enough depth to be a sufficient complement to elite-level pitching (if they get “elite-level” pitching). The Angels were in the top 5 in runs scored last season even with all their problems/deficiencies and I suspect they will be right there again during the 2008 season. It’s in the playoff where the Angels’ brand of offense hasn’t worked in the past few years and I don’t see those matchups working out any more in their favor now, Hunter or no Hunter.
  

The rotation appears to be very deep, but injuries already seem like they could be a problem. Do you have any update on the condition of Kelvim Escobar and how do you see the Angels filling out the back-end of its rotation in the interim?
Bill Plunkett: Escobar has been the invisible man this spring. Almost all of the rehab and physical therapy he is doing for the sore shoulder is done off site, away from Tempe Diablo Stadium. We’ve only seen him in the clubhouse a couple times all spring. That means the only updates we get are through Angels manager Mike Scioscia — and those second-hand interpretations of how Escobar is doing are not terribly informative. Scioscia originally told us Escobar would start a throwing program in the “second or third week of March.” Well, here we are — and still no sign of Escobar. By my math, it would take a minimum of six weeks to go from the start of a throwing program to rejoining the Angels’ rotation — four weeks to go from flat ground throwing to long toss to throwing off a mound to throwing to hitters, then another two weeks to make a minimum of three rehab game appearances. That’s an optimistic estimate which, as of today, puts Escobar’s return somewhere in early to mid-May. And I would have my concerns about a recurrence of this problem at some point later in the season. Remember — he had this problem last September and it persisted through the winter. That means the rotation for at least the first month of the season will be Lackey, Garland, Weaver, Santana, Saunders. I think Lackey’s spring elbow problem will be forgotten quickly. Garland will be a solid No. 2 and Weaver could be the linchpin — how he does could push the Angels in one direction or the other. He has looked terrific so far this spring. Can’t say the same for Santana.

• Who do you ultimately see filling the shortstop role, Erick Aybar, Maicer Izturis or Brandon Wood?
  
• Bill Plunkett: Aybar. And Izturis. Then Aybar again and Izturis some more. I don’t see either player emerging as the every-day guy. I think it will be a time-share arrangement much like the Mathis-Napoli combo at catcher. Whether it’s Aybar or Izturis from day-to-day will depend on how each is going and what the team’s needs (defensively and offensively) are on a given day against a given opponent. As for Wood, his time is coming — but it’s not here yet. He still needs a lot of work on pitch recognition — like so many young power hitters, he chases way too many breaking pitches out of the strike zone.
  

How do you see the Angels rotating Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr., Reggie Willits and Juan Rivera between the left field and designated hitter spots?
Bill Plunkett: I think that will take care of itself for much of the season based on which players are healthy. I don’t see much playing time for Willits other than as a late-inning defensive replacement on the corners. But I do see Rivera forcing his way into a bigger role, much as he did in 2006. If I had to put numbers to it at this point in the spring I would guess the DH starts would break down this way — 60-65 for Anderson, 40-45 for Guerrero, 10-15 for Matthews, 30-40 for Rivera, a handful for Hunter. But I could see Rivera’s share going up.

• The Angels have some young players filling some key line-up spots in Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick and Mike Napoli. Who do you see having the better offensive season in ‘08?
  
• Bill Plunkett: I think Kendrick is going to have a breakout season. People forget he has already hit .306 in his first 160 big-league games including .322 with a .450 slugging percentage between the two hand injuries last season. Those were just fluke injuries and not something you can look at as a sign of future trouble. This guy is a hitter and I could see him developing into an All-Star in a couple seasons. He and Kotchman hold the key to the Angels’ offense this season – if they continue to develop into the kind of hitters the Angels think they can be, that lineup suddenly becomes seven deep. I don’t think the Angels are going to get much in the way of offense from either catcher. But Scioscia doesn’t ask for that from his catchers.