Atlanta Braves

Previous Team Analyses

For 15 years, the Atlanta Braves have been the model of consistency and success, winning the National League East year in and year out on the strength of a quality pitching staff. Tom Glavine rejoins John Smoltz in 2008, reuniting 2/3 of the core of the division-winning team. The rest of the team blends youth and experience - we'll see if that's a recipe for success in 2008.

Lineup:

• SS Yunel Escobar
• 2B Kelly Johnson
• 3B Chipper Jones
• 1B Mark Teixeira
• RF Jeff Francoeur
• C Brian McCann
• CF Mark Kotsay
• LF Matt Diaz

Rotation:

• John Smoltz
• Tim Hudson
• Tom Glavine
• Chuck James
• JoJo Reyes

Closer: Rafael Soriano

Thoughts...

I'll start the same way John Halpin does at FoxSports: Yunel Escobar has an unbelievable .367 batting average on balls in play. This high number indicates that some of his success last year was based on luck; I'm a big believer in regression to the mean, meaning that I expect his BABIP to drop significantly, and his average to do so by extension. 

2003 was the last time Chipper Jones played 150 games in a season, and that's a terrible shame for fantasy owners. Last year, he put up numbers close to his '03 numbers in 130 games. If he gets 130 games in again this season, he will be an outstanding third baseman - a step down from the top tier because he no longer steals bases, but an outstanding four category producer nonetheless. 

Jeff Francoeur is an underrated middle round outfielder. He's young enough to grow and build on his .293, 19/105 numbers from last year. .300 and 30/100/100 is very possible in a lineup with Mark Teixeira for a full season. Kelly Johnson is another young player with an opportunity to grow. Johnson may spend time in the leadoff spot this year, which would be good for his run production (although less than ideal for his RBI numbers). He can be had late in a draft, and looks good in the second base spot on many fantasy teams.

Smoltz and Glavine may have been equals a generation ago, but now one is a clear fantasy performer and the other is heading to oblivion. Since 1989, John Smoltz's ERA has only been above four in one season: in the strike-shortened 1994 year, he was at 4.14 when the season was ended early. His WHIP has never been above 1.30. He's pitched a full season every year and his numbers have been disgusting. Smoltz might never slow down and looks great as a number two starter heading into 2008. Glavine, on the other hand, has been fading and never was a strikeout pitcher. I'm avoiding him this season.

Parting shots: Tim Hudson has not been the ace in Atlanta, as he was in Oakland. However, he still fills out a rotation well heading into 2008. Count on him for 200 solid innings. I've already addressed Mark Teixeira in Walk Years, and I love him to step up into the elite this year. Brian McCann will not provide the across-the-board numbers of Russell Martin, but with his nagging pinky injury healed he ought to have a better offensive year than he did in 2007. He also got laser corrective surgery for his eyes - he wouldn't be the first player to improve after correcting a vision problem. Finally, keep your eye on Mike Gonzalez as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. It might not be until 2009, but he will challenge Soriano for the closer's job at some point.

Atlanta can't turn back time until the late 1990s, much as it would like to. However, with a mixture of youth and experience, they may soon be able to recreate their old success. There's plenty of fantasy talent here, and most of it is available to bargain shoppers in middle and later rounds.