Closers: Part II

So, hopefully I've convinced you that a team's record isn't a crucial factor when considering a closer. While closer is the only position that will get you saves, the pitchers will contribute to every category, so peripherals must be considered. Also, a good closer will contribute to wins and strikeouts. For instance, Francisco Rodriguez had 46 more strikeouts than Trevor Hoffman, while J.J. Putz had 6 wins to Todd Jones's 1. A difference of this magnitude among starting pitchers regarding either category would be considered substantial, but fantasy analysts tend to ignore them when they look at closers.

What factors should you consider? Well, peripherals are very important, along with durability and bullpen competition. Since it doesn't hurt to consider, winningness of the team can at least separate two close competitors. Lets look at these categories, using Zips and PECOTA for statistics, to find some possible steals.

Peripherals: B.J. Ryan (ERA 2.08, WHIP 1.03), Joakim Soria (ERA 2.83, WHIP 1.07), Huston Street (ERA 2.92, WHIP 1.03), George Sherrill (ERA 3.00, WHIP 1.18)

• Soria and Street are bargains, while the other two will come up later. The big four all have a projected ERA under 3.00 - which guys don't? Valverde and Cordero to name a couple. Check fangraphs for the data.

Durability: Every year, roughly fifteen closers lose their job due to injury or breakdowns. Some guys to be aware of this year as injury risks are Percival (age), Borowski (age), Rivera (age), Hoffman (age), Saito (age), Papelbon (showed fatigue last year, Red Sox showed extreme caution), Street (injured last season, seems healthy), Ryan (coming off Tommy John a bit early), Soriano (consistent injury troubles), Lidge (already hurt), Wood (consistent injury history). 

• Of these guys, I trust Rivera, Hoffman, Street, and to a lesser extent Papelbon to beat the odds and play a full season. Everyone else will likely see at least 15 days on the DL.
  

Bullpen Condition: Closers lose the gig every year, sometimes even when they pitch a good season (look at Fuentes' overall season last year). 

• Borowski should lose his job to Rafael Betancourt. Saito will be threatened by Broxton, but I think should hold on. It could be interesting if Rivera struggles and Joba Chamberlain pitches like last year. I could see Gagne exploding, with either Salomon Torres or Derrick Turnbow filling in. C.J. Wilson might be pressed by recent import Kazuo Fukumori, who has pitched well this spring and could open camp as the closer (also, Guardado was at one point the speculated closer, and he does have the most experience of that pen). Finally, Kerry Wood will fight for the job all season from the likes of Bob Howry and Carlos Marmol--The Cubs tolerated Dempster last year so I think Wood's leash might be pretty long once he earns the spot.
• Closers get traded around the deadline every year. Beware of losing your saves from Joe Nathan, Chad Cordero, Kevin Gregg, and George Sherrill. Nathan is the least likely to move-though the Twins might feel forced to-and I can't see him not closing or on a competitive team that will need a closer barring injury. Also, beware that Soria may be tried as a starting pitcher.

Winningness: Referring to the first post, which teams will be new to the winners bracket (above .500 for our purposes) and the losers bracket? Nothing really new here,

• New Winning Teams - Tampa Bay
• New Losing Teams - Seattle 

So, who would I say is underrated heading into this season? Well, there isn't much to complain about among Francisco Rodriguez, who is in a walk year, and J.J. Putz (whose newly projected losers will still win 73 games). If you waited till the twelfth round in a ten team league (10th in a twelve team league) you'd still see respectable names-as in unblemished by the aforementioned considerations-such as Street, Corpas, Capps, and Isringhausen. All of these guys could serve as a number two closer or paired and accompanied by a riskier late round pick like Betancourt, Wood, or Ryan.

The most important factor thing to recognize is that having a solid bullpen will provide saves, but also contribute to other categories. Last year Francisco Cordero, Jason Isringhausen, and Jose Valverde-already their team's closer-went after the 120th pick. Other guys like Matt Capps, Joakim Soria, and Jeremy Accardo provided value from the waiver wire. If I had to pick this years "surprise three" it would be Street, Soria, and Ryan.