Monday, March 17, 2008

Detroit Tigers

Team Analyses

Detroit made one of the big splashes this off-season, picking up Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from Florida. The trade was odd in that the Detroit offense was already outstanding, but they moved to strengthen it anyway instead of pushing for the available stud pitchers. They may be able to win a lot of games 10-8 with a lineup that averages over 4 All-Star appearances per batter.

Lineup:
  • CF Curtis Granderson
  • 2B Placido Polanco
  • 3B Miguel Cabrera
  • RF Magglio Ordonez
  • DH Gary Sheffield
  • 1B Carlos Guillen
  • SS Edgar Renteria
  • LF Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames
  • C Ivan Rodriguez

Rotation:
  • Justin Verlander
  • Kenny Rogers
  • Jeremy Bonderman
  • Dontrelle Willis
  • Nate Robertson

Closer: Todd Jones
Thoughts...
The first seven hitters are all worth owning. Granderson stole 26 bags last year, while attempting only 27-I think the steals are for real but some experts worry that the lineup won't run due to the presence of Cabrera. Needless to say, I disagree, and Granderson will outperform his draft position even as high as the mid-third round. Polanco is the most overrated of the bunch - he won't contribute power or steals. He will score plenty of runs at the top of this lineup but it's unlikely he'll hit .341 in 2008. Ordonez is also overrated slightly in my opinion. .300/25/100/100 are appropriate expectations, rather than a batting title with 120/140. Still, I like all seven players throughout the draft.
I cannot wait for this team to get a real closer, but it's almost certainly going to take another year. Joel Zumaya, the "closer-in-waiting," is out until June or later, and probably won't be effective enough to close this year. Jones will have to hold down the fort for one more season, and though I don't think he'll have great peripherals, he's worth owning because he closes for one of the top teams in the game.
A couple of positional notes: Enjoy Carlos Guillen's last year of shortstop eligibility. All signs indicate he will play first base for the entire year (barring an injury to Renteria, I suppose), which means that he won't be eligible at shortstop in 2009. Also, Brandon Inge has done some work at catcher. If he can get some games behind the plate, then some regular at-bats at DH because of a Sheffield injury, he may give you some good production from a position with no depth.
Scheduling quirk: The Tigers play all of their games against the Red Sox and Yankees by May 11, and six of nine against the Angels by May 29. Their fade last year will not repeat itself. They end the year with a bunch of games against the Royals, Athletics, Rangers, Orioles, and Rays, meaning that Tigers are worth targeting when you're trying to strengthen your team in mid-season.
I really can't say enough good things about this team, from both a fantasy perspective and a baseball perspective. I like them to win a lot of games with that big offense, and Verlander is a big game pitcher who can win them some games in the playoffs. If Willis can return to form and Jones can somehow keep it together, they'll be a team to reckon with this October.

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