The Fallen

For the past week or so, I've been running a poll about which early round selection is undervalued. As of tonight, Pujols and Soriano are tied, with Santana and Utley coming in second and Howard a good deal behind. Before revealing my selection, I'd like to consider what I believe are strong arguments for or against a certain player.

Chase Utley (ADP 8) - Utley is best second basemen available; some consider him miles and above guys like B.J. Upton and Brandon Phillips. Despite a shortened season, Utley put up top tier numbers last year in Philadelphia. If you haven't noticed, that entailed a stacked offense and an attractive hitters park going into 2008.

• For: Utley is going after guys like Miguel Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins, and Matt Holliday. In a twelve team league, fifth pick will see plenty of outfielders with their second pick, and Aramis Ramirez will be available in the third or Atkins in the fourth. Smaller leagues probably undervalue the perennial All-Star, since filling in spots later is easy.
  
• Against: Even in deep leagues, Brandon Phillips or B.J. Upton should be there for your second pick. If you take Holliday, you could have Holliday + Phillips, rather than Utley + Beltran/Lee/Guerrero. In my opinion, the former is a better duo. Miguel on the other hand, should be going after Utley. Rollins and Utley is a toss up as far as I'm concerned.

Albert Pujols (ADP 9) - We all know that not taking Pujols could burn us, but most of us know that taking him could be worse. The damage to the first basemen's elbow will require surgery at some point, and Pujols explained that he will not play through pain this year. The issue rests on whether or not the Cardinals are contenders or chicken tenders.

• For: He is projected by several reputable statistic sites as the best player going into 2008. Even his line last year (99 runs, 32 HR, 103 RBI, .327 AVG) would warrant a first round selection, and it was considered a bust. In shallow leagues with plenty of decent FA, injuries aren't too costly, and decent fill-ins should emerge mid-season. Just hope on at least 75% of the season.
• Against: First picks must not entail high risk. Passing on Pujols when the decision is tough usually delivers guys like Howard and Fielder. In my opinion, its better to grab any of the guys above him and hope for him, Howard, or Fielder to come back around.

Ryan Howard (ADP 10) - Nothing big here, I agree with you guys. While I think Cabrera is generally overrated and therefore Howard should go before him, I can't warrant the slugger to move ahead of fellow one bagger Pujols or middle infielders Rollins or Utley.

Johan Santana (ADP 12) - Santana, inarguably the best pitcher over the past three years, slowed down a bit compared to his peers last season. Not to worry, as the guy still earned a ridiculous contract and moved to the less formidable NL.

• For: Many of you have pointed this out, but pitchers are underrated in most Roto leagues. Santana is the best of them, and I think he's worth considering as early as the fifth pick. Pete wrote a great article concerning his upside, so I recommend it.
• Against: Chris Carpenter last year. Pitchers carry an injury risk more than position players, so a first round selection of a hurler is unwarranted. Still, Santana has proven his health year in and year out. Taking the new Mets ace gives a lot of flexibility regarding taking your number two and three, as any fantasy staff headed by the Cy Young favorite will be one of the best in the league.

Alfonso Soriano (ADP 15) - Soriano was the consensus second pick last year, but now he's fallen at least a round. His line, like Pujols, was still great and can be considered the basement of this season. If he figures out to hit at Wrigley, he will be great.

• For: For the first time in years, OF seems shallow. Soriano, next to Holliday, reigns over the position. Right now, 3 SS, 3 1B, and 4 3B precede his selection, and this doesn't seem right considering position depth.
• Against: Soriano is hurt, bats in an unproductive leadoff spot, and isn't stealing 40 bases again. However, his quad is fully healed and a non-dislocated hairline fracture of his middle finger is unlikely to heal by the season's start. He went 2-4 today in Spring Training, with no complaints of injuries.

Considering the arguments, I have to give the nod to either Santana or Soriano. I think Santana should be going around pick 6-7 (curiously where he went last year, while still in the AL), which represents a movement of 6 picks. Soriano, on the other hand, should complement of first basemen with the 9th or 10th pick, which is a movement of 6 picks. In a shallow league, all of these guys are underrated since "risk" is overrated.

As a Cubs fan, I give the nod to Soriano. "Hunch prediction" of 40+ HRs and 100 RBIs from the fifth spot in the lineup.