Thursday, March 20, 2008

Minnesota Twins

Previous Team Analyses
The Minnesota Twins lost Torii Hunter this year, but in my opinion their offense looks better than ever. On the other hand, it could be decades until their pitching resembles the years that Santana was the ace, and with the additional loss of Garza and the foreshadowed struggles of Liriano--look at his Spring Training numbers--the team will struggle to win in 2008.

Lineup:
  • Carlos Gomez
  • Brendan Harris
  • Joe Mauer
  • Justin Morneau
  • Delmon Young
  • Michael Cuddyer
  • Jason Kubel
  • Mike Lamb
  • Adam Everett

Rotation:
  • Francisco Liriano
  • Livan Hernandez
  • Scott Baker
  • Boof Bonser
  • Kevin Slowey

Closer: Joe Nathan
Thoughts...
New comers Carlos Gomez, Brendan Harris, Delmon Young, Michael Lamb, and Adam Everett replaced half of the lineup. With Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddyer coming off down-years in comparison with 2006, this lineup led me to consider the Twins my darkhorse for the season. While the Twins were conservative on the basepaths last year, Gomez should steal 30+ bags even in a platoon for most of the year. Jose Reyes once described the former Mets prospect as "faster than he is", so the guy earned a spot on my radar prematurely. Along with Bourne, Upton, and Taveras, Gomez seems to be a late option 4th/5th outfielder who can keep you competitive in the steals category, though provide little else.
Delmon Young is the only other acquisition that will provide fantasy relevance. He is a legitimate threat to go 20-20 and should be a five category producer. Guys like Young and Kemp make me question reaching for Markakis, Pence, and Hart in the middle rounds of drafts, since I just don't see a huge difference. In other words, Young is a steal in most drafts.
The "regulars" should all see improvement with a stronger lineup. Kubel hit .303/.379/.511 after the All Star Break, so is a solid sleeper. Morneau was not as fortunate, hitting only 7 of his 31 bombs after the Break and seeing his average drop to .243--for this reason I'd take Derrek Lee, Lance Berkman, and Travis Hafner ahead of him. Joe Mauer hasn't averaged double digit HRs or SBs over the past three seasons, but a likely increase in RBIs and AVG does keep him a tier above Posada and company.
The pitching isn't that good. Liriano is going at about the right spot, since the risk-reward is more manageable in the 10th round. Boof Bonser and Kevin Slowey struggled last year, and with Phillip Humber and Matt Guerrier pressing them for those rotation spots, they will have to perform consistently to be worth picking up. Baker and Hernandez really aren't worth paying attention to unless they seem hot to start the season, to which you will promptly pick them up and trade them as quickly as possible.
The last thing that should be addressed is Joe Nathan. I think he will have better peripherals than Putz, K-Rod, or even Papelbon, but the looming chance of a trade this summer makes me rank him beneath those three.

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