When I first got involved with fantasy baseball I did not have a set strategy other than knowing that pitchers would be my key to success. Since the leagues I found myself in often ended up being head-to-head, my guys could afford to have “off” weeks as long as my opponents were worse. In roto leagues this is impossible, but the strategy that helped me win three consecutive years is very sound in the logistics department. It’s also very simple – a tremendous pitching staff is much harder to create as you go than a great batting lineup and the best pitchers are the ones who are out there the longest.

While a statistic like Wins is a terrible indicator of quality it is still used in fantasy leagues; if it is going to remain prevalent then we need to find a way to get the guys who seem likely to win the most. The old creed was to just draft Yankees but now I am advocating, and strongly so, drafting the pitchers with the most innings pitched or track record of consistency with their innings pitched. Livan Hernandez is the exception to this rule as he routinely racks up a ton of innings but really has not been effective since 2004.

The key with this is to separate your sabermetrics self from the fantasy player self. Carlos Zambrano is not as effective of a pitcher as his numbers may have you think, but he is a good pitcher on a winning team that has shown a good track record of durability. While these innings eaters might not truly be the best, they will help rack up wins and solid ERA/WHIP counts. Those out there the longest have the best chance of recording decisions; and they are out there the longest, save for Livan, due to being able to post solid ERA and WHIP numbers in the individual games. Here is the correlation of IP and W over the last few years:


As you can see, those in the top five of wins usually tend to fall in the top five of innings pitched. For these reasons I would strongly suggest going after the guys that have shown a track record of innings pitched regardless of the outcome thus far. A guy like Bronson Arroyo has only gone 23-26 over the last two years but his Adjusted W-L is actually 33-16, plus he has gone over 205 innings each year. Why not draft him? You can get him in a later round, solidifying your rotation with what appears to be a bargain pick.

Though this is not some complex formula or even a new statistic, do not underestimate the value of innings pitched. When a pitcher is out there more often he is likely to record more decisions, record more strikeouts, and, again save for Livan, post lower ERA’s and WHIPS; he is out there primarily because he is not allowing runs or too many baserunners.

For those very reasons I cannot say enough about Harang and Arroyo. Roy Oswalt and Mark Buehrle are others that get supremely undervalued in a draft. While Jake Peavy may cost you a 2nd round pick, Oswalt will be just as effective and be able to be drafted four to six rounds later.

When drafting pitchers, go for the innings eaters, even if they went 12-12 or 10-14 last year. In most drafts, you're going to end up with a 12-12 or 10-14 pitcher anyway, so you might as well get the one out there the most with the best chance of recording more raw totals.