Trendspotting: Johan Santana, Andruw Jones

So I went out looking for trends in some mock drafts this weekend, and I witnessed a fellow drafter take Jake Peavy ahead of Johan Santana. He was admittedly biased (Yankee fan) and immediately chastised, but I began to wonder about the effects of changing leagues for a pitcher. In thinking about Trendspotting, I went with "change of scenery" as my theme and included Andruw Jones as well.

Johan Santana: In 2004, his best season in Minnesota, Santana struck out 265 batters in 228 innings. His strikeout total fell last year to 235 in only 219 innings, still good for third-best in the league (behind Peavy's 240 and Scott Kazmir's 236). This season, I like his strikeout total to rise astronomically, because all the lineups he faces will replace designated hitters with pitchers. How have other pitchers fared when jumping from league to league? Bronson Arroyo, when he came to Cincinnati from Boston in 2006, struck out 184 batters in 240 innings, as compared to only 100 in 205 innings the previous year. Randy Johnson (strikeout pitcher in his prime, very comparable to Johan) struck out 364 batters in 271 innings in 1999, his first full season in the National League. In 1997, his last full year in the AL, Johnson struck out 291 in 213 innings. The innings jump certainly accounts for some of his massive strikeout total, but facing hitters who have never seen you before, as well as facing pitchers for the first time, ought to pad Santana's strikeout numbers significantly. 300 K's is a very real possibility for a guy whose ADP is currently 12.15. I'm not saying he belongs ahead of A-Rod, but he could be very valuable early in a draft when you begin to consider his massive potential. 

Andruw Jones: In Mock Draft Central's most recent expert draft, Jones went in the tenth round. He went 4 rounds after Vernon Wells and 3 after Jason Bay, two other outfielders expected to rebound from bad seasons in 2007. [Interesting aside - all three went to the same team] He doesn't have the speed of his youth, but it's impossible to expect more than 10 SBs from any of the three. He will have the lowest average but should balance it nicely with the most power (in '05 and '06 he hit 51 and 41 HR, with 128 and 129 RBI). Jones even went after Jermaine Dye, which is a sin in my opinion. Dodger Stadium may not be a hitter's paradise but Jones will still hit in a young, talented, speedy lineup (plenty of opportunities to drive in runs, even if it is only with doubles). Jones isn't going to give you 5-category production, but he's on a two-year deal and young enough to get paid big money if he has some success in LA. Look for a big season out of him and absolutely grab him before round 10. I'd take him over Bay or Wells to rebound this year.