The Walk Years, Part Three

Time for me to finish of my series of walk year players. These are five more guys (end of the alphabet, middle of the draft) that I think could be impact guys, because they have talent, a track record of production, and the added incentive of a big payday as a reward for a successful season.

John Lackey, P, Los Angeles Angels: I really don't like that he started this year with an injury, because I had him pegged early for a good season and arm injuries to pitchers scare me. Nonetheless, I could still see him putting up Cy Young quality numbers when he returns. Last year's numbers of 3.01 and 1.21 are duplicable, in my opinion, and I'd waive my usual avoidance of injured pitchers to pick him up if I had the chance.

Brad Penny, P, Los Angeles Dodgers: Everyone in the fantasy world dislikes Brad Penny, because they know he's a different pitcher after the All-Star Break than before. I'm going to run against the grain, though, because he ended 2007 with an ERA of 3.03 and a WHIP of 1.31. He falls so far in drafts, it's unbelievable, and his owners will often trade him for nothing in June. At age 29, he's looking for the big payday, and I expect him to put up a full season of big numbers. Grab him for nothing at midseason if he isn't readily available now.

Oliver Perez, P, New York Mets: You couldn't ask for a much better situation than to be pitching in New York at age 27 with the likes of David Wright and Jose Reyes supporting you. Perez has all the ingredients for success: youth (but not immaturity any longer), a talented supporting cast, and the extra motivation of a big contract year. Remember that 2.98 ERA he had in Pittsburgh in 2004? As a loyal Pirates fan, I do, and I see it as a reasonable ceiling for 2008. I don't know if he'll get to 1.15 WHIP or 239 K's, but those are very possible. The ceiling is as high as ever for Perez in his walk year.

Mark Prior, P, San Diego Padres: I know... another injured pitcher... but I can't resist his talent. He'll be off the 60-day DL on June 1, and all indications are he'll be ready to pitch. The reason he was a consensus first overall draft pick (even though he went second to Joe Mauer) and jumped almost immediately into the bigs is that he has amazing talent throwing a baseball. Prior is on a $1 million, incentive-laden deal, with the added incentive of a potential big payday for a healthy and effective season. He's a low-risk pickup who could provide massive rewards (don't forget that as a bonus, he's in the pitcher's haven of Petco Park). If you have the spot, stash the 27-year-old former phenom. You could do much worse.

Edgar Renteria, SS, Detroit Tigers: In this very forum, Renteria has been called overrated, but I can't write him off. I remember how much he struggled with Boston in 2005, but I don't see a repeat in Detroit this year. He's hitting leadoff as long as Curtis Granderson is out, which is only an extra opportunity to accumulate some runs. If he moves down in the lineup later, he'll pick up extra RBI opportunities - I see the lineup movement as an extra chance to balance his stats. I'm not saying the 32 year-old will carry your team, but I love having him if you can't nail one of the Big Three.

Well, that's my list of my favorite names heading into 2008. For a complete list of free agents at the end of 2008, go here. Remember that this isn't a foolproof strategy, but to me it's a consistent indicator of who is likely to overachieve. Check back at season's end to see how I did.