April Flowers

I've seen many fantasy websites running posts about which fast starts are legitimate. I think they are right in the sense that they do trust their gut and past performances, but I'd like to see a bit more sabermetric analysis (Tim Dierkes does a good job looking at BABIP - batting average on balls in play - over at his site, RotoAuthority). However, the simple fact of the matter is that every player you selected even in the middle of your draft deserves enough credit to be trusted. It is the end of the draft, those high risk picks like Randy Johnson or Zack Greinke, that make a difference, and it is the teams that drop the picks that didn't pan out for the free agents that will who tend to win.

I've talked a lot here about Fantasy (Baseball) Mechanics, the first post ever run at Rotonomics and then republished soon after the move to MLBFrontOffice. Those familiar will remember that above marginal pitchers represent the best measure of team value, especially when position players are gaged as "embodied pitchers". Let's look at some the guys you might have picked up this season and discuss who is worth keeping. I will try to use anecdotal players so that the reasoning can be applied for future call-ups.

Cliff Lee: As far as an anecdote goes, Lee is the "lucky pitcher whose fast start is a product of a fortunate spot in a rotation". Okay okay, that's a bit long, but consider how lucky the Indians current "ace" has been. He's played Oakland twice and Minnesota, poor lineups at best, and undisputedly left-hand heavy. On top of that, his BABIP is .154, more than seventy-five points beneath league average. Sell him while you can, touting his impressive control (20K/2BB) and former top prospect status. (Also, Justin Germano - can't sustain ERA with more Ks, Gavin Floyd - BABIP at .136

Zach Greinke: Greinke is anecdotally the "good pitcher on a bad team". However, this year it looks like the Royals are improved, and so is the pitcher. His BABIP is actually above league average, though I think improvement on his 1.24 ERA would be asking a bit much. However, and this is crucial, even if we expected Greinke to regress, he doesn't have the name value to make trading his upside worth it. Keep the young ace, or trade for him if you can. (Also, Dana Eveland, Nick Blackburn - BABIP of .320, no HRs yet, Shaun Marcum, Edinson Volquez, and obviously Johnny Cueto)

Joe Saunders: Saunders is one of those guys who "has a track record arguing against his current success". He's never really dominated the minors, and that 2.15 ERA is somewhat the product of a low BABIP. His walk rate is improved this year, but it'll likely come up once teams have a better idea of what they are up against. Combine this with a LD% that is half what it was last year and you have a fast start on a good team that you should move (Also, Micah Owings).

Randy Wolf: This one is easy, the "Veteran starter who has supposedly returned to form". Wolf is not necessarily going to fall back to earth, though I think he is. That's not the issue, but rather that trading him with name value should upon up the possibility of improving your team while picking up one of the other great players. (Also, Kevin Millwood, Kyle Lohse, Carlos Silva)

Ervin Santana: I'm going to go out on a limb here and entitle this one "The turnaround". Ervin has a well known vice-he cannot pitch away from home. He's always had great stuff, but away games at Minnesota and Texas have been solid outings, even if they weren't great. Both games could have been disasters given his priors, and he had the mindset to keep the game under control. You have to take a risk at some point, and in this case, you'd pay too much for it trying to move him (Not Wandy Rodriguez, since the injury concerns add to the risk).

These are some of the characters you might have already found in your free agency, and if not, they will be there again soon enough.