The Injured
About a week ago, Pete posted an interesting thread about what it takes for a player to acquire the title "oft-injured". With several first round players down with injuries, its worth exploring who is worth trading and who is worth holding, because even an injured player with potential (ex. Pedro Martinez last year) is valuable trade bait. So who has gone down so far?
John Lackey: All signs point to go on Lackey, and with the Angels starting to hit the ball he could be a legitimate ace on return. If he was drafted as a team's second pitcher, you might be able to grab him while he's still relatively cheap. Try to.
Alfonso Soriano: You all know my infatuation with the slugger, but I'm hesitant to write off this injury. While it isn't as severe as last year's quad injury, his legs getting banged up really diminish his value. While 35-20 is still a real possibility, it will come with a .280-.290 average, and guys like Alex Rios or Carlos Lee should improve on those numbers. The fact is, if someone still sees Soriano as a significant upgrade to guys you expect to go 30-20, you should cash in on the profits they'll throw in for the switch.
Jimmy Rollins: I maintained the the Phillies speedster was overrated this season, and while he was performing decently before the injury the slight break in his ankle will really hurt him. I'm a fan of Furcal and think that he's solid fifth round talent that went later, so if you can trade Rollins for Furcal and a significant upgrade elsewhere, consider it. Beyond runs, both players should hit around .300 with 15-20 HRs and 30+ steals.
Howie Kendrick: I'm cynical here, because Kendrick was overrated except for the notes from his coaches that they'd let him steal upwards of 30 bags. With a hamstring injury, that number is way lower, and he's no better than Aaron Hill going forward.
Alex Rodriguez: He's not on the DL, but A-Rod has been missing games and there is speculation he could miss more. Don't be concerned though, as last years MVP should be able to return to form. I'm reminded of Pujols injury a couple years back, where he left as the best player, then came back a couple weeks later and ripped the ball.
Erik Bedard: After the move to Safeco, Bedard should have provided Webb and Beckett type value, but so far hasn't lived up to those expectations (nor has Beckett, ironically). I think that he is one of those "oft-injured" guys, and drafted him on the premise that his rest toward the end of last season should limit him to only one DL stint. I expect more to come, but when he's healthy he should still be a good pitcher who just experienced a slow start.
Scott Kazmir: I'm not looking forward to Kazmir's first return back against Boston, but after that he should better adjust to major league games. His rehab has gone smoothly, and I have a lot of confidence that he will come back and pitch well.
So there are the guys that could make big impacts on their returns. Does anyone have any others that they think need mentioned?
Labels: Sleepers



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