Sell Low / Sell High
We all know the strategy of buying a player at his low points and selling others when they are overperforming, but I would opine that this works particularly well early in the season. While most experts recommend holding your "cards" until at least May, the impatient league mate is likely to be jumpy. Struggles across a team are exaggerated, successes across a team are short lived, so every person in the league is hesitant about their position. Even moreso, player struggles are exaggerated (look at Alfonso Soriano's .094 BA and tell me that will last--we've talked about him to much to devote a full section to him). Anyway, here are the player's I think you should ditch, and the ones you should grab...Sell High: Jermaine Dye, Rich Harden, Chipper Jones, Torii Hunter, Ben Sheets, George Sherrill
This group is dominated by injury risks, but you should try to convince anyone looking for that "ace" pitcher that this is the year of Ben Sheets/Rich Harden. A team that's desperate for pitching might think that its a risk they have no choice to take, and you could get one of the struggling players below. Remember, they are probably banking on any struggling pitching to return, so an pitching-for-offense or vice versa is your best bet. Sherrill is leading the majors in saves, leading to one of three possibilities: The O's continue to win (Editor's Comment: This is sarcastic), Sherrill falls back to earth, or Sherrill is traded to be a setup man midseason. Finally, I think Dye and the White Sox will struggle with age and Hunter coming off a big season will hover around his career average, not where he is now.
Buy Low: Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Jeff Francis, Matt Kemp, John Maine, Russell Martin, Aramis Ramirez, Hunter Pence, C.C. Sabathia, B.J. Upton, Justin Verlander + Tigers Offense
You might be able to get any of these outfielders from a team that has a "bigger named" outfielder than the one you seek, since they will believe they can weather the storm. Fantasy players are prone to look at pitching and an outfield core as if it is centered around one guy, making the others undervalued. Crawford is underperforming, Dunn hasn't hit a home run, and Kemp isn't even playing (yet). Sabathia, Verlander, and Maine are in similar situations--target them if their team has another "ace". Also, anyone on in the Tigers offense is worth trading for, but the condition is so exaggerated that I expect even the fleetfooted league mate won't believe in it.
Labels: Sleepers
posted by Zachary Piso at
5:52 PM
5 Comments:
What do you guys think of A.J. Burnett? He had a rough outing agains a bad team, but has the kind of stuff to win a Cy young if he were healthy. I think he might fall under the category of "target"
Crawford hasn't stolen a base? Here I was thinking he had 3 already.
That's my bad, I was talking to my roommate about Jose Reyes and writing about Crawford, hence the confusion. However, I didn't include Reyes as a buy low because players tend to hold onto their first round selections until at least midseason (though this might be reckless sentimentalism). Still, Crawford isn't performing as of yet and I do think represents a buy low opportunity.
Thanks for the fact checking, and I'll make the change.
I figured you meant Reyes. Crawford has been lousy, though - but same reasoning as Reyes I don't think anyone will sell low on him this early. Burnett is a decent target, but I think he will be streaky. Stretches of brilliance with some awful outings mixed in. Last year he started off horribly but was lights out during the summer.
I think the thing about Crawford, and Dunn for that matter, is that the way the snaking worked this year in drafts a lot of teams with either of them would also have another top tier outfield (either Holliday or Soriano early, or Berkman, Rios, or Manny in the third). Psychologically, such teams think "I'd have a good outfielder even without this struggling player" and sell him cheaper than they should.
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