Trades in a Vacuum

So, it's that time in the year when the trades should start flying. If you didn't know your needs and surpluses at this point (you should have had a pretty good idea right after your draft) then you better start adding up your projections with pencil and paper, and comparing those totals to previous years in that league. And if its your first year in the league, check out RotoAuthority's pieces on "What It Takes To Win".

But my focus today is just a general trade strategy. Let's consider a hypothetical trade... Carl Crawford for Justin Morneau. Remember the offseason, when Crawford was an early second round pick while Morneau likely fell off the board late in the fourth, if then. So, should this be a no brainer?

Well, obviously not. Two points that come to mind are position surpluses/needs and category surpluses/needs. The team with Morneau isn't like to trade for Crawford if it has three quality outfielders (if its a three OF league), nor our they going to grab the perennial speedster if their first round selection was Jose Reyes. This is the conventional take, and if your staring at your screen thinking "duh!" you are well within your rights.

However, I want to advise against this strategy, if you are the Justin Morneau owner. For the previous reasoning, what I consider "Trades Aren't Made in a Vacuum"--a rare fantasy baseball tribute to Supreme Court rulings--fails to consider perceived value and liquidity. Another hypothetical: the team makes the deal, then spins Crawford into one of two underperforming stars, Mark Teixeira or David Ortiz. Someone in the league should have a first basemen (necessarily better than Justin Morneau) who they would move for Crawford. In most leagues, that will be the case, and the Morneau owner will be able to turn the Twin into Teix, Ortiz, or possibly Pujols (as a sidenote, I would consider Derrek Lee an upgrade also).

In summary, the team advocating a "Trades Are Made in a Vacuum" essentially traded Morneau for a second-round first basemen. The team brandishing John Marshall sentiments is left with  the Twin, and hopefully front row seats to a Crawford-Ortiz trade. In an ideal world, the Crawford owner should have found the best trade, but in all honesty, we all make mistakes like theirs. This "thought experiment", if you will, is a bit of a hyperbole, and trades involving 7th for 5th round talent, or anywhere in the spectrum, are rather common when teams are desperate. Just don't write off a good deal because "it doesn't fit your team's needs", because you can address that soon after.