Thursday, April 17, 2008

When Does a Player Become Oft-Injured?

You know the names. J.D. Drew. Rich Harden. Ben Sheets. Ken Griffey Jr. A.J. Burnett. Mark Prior. These are the guys with such phenomenal talent that fantasy players bite on them year after year, only to find themselves consistently let down as the player suffers one injury after another. Here are some names that could be heading down that same road.

Howie Kendrick: It kills me to put Kendrick on this list, because like Brandon Funston, I absolutely love this guy. He's a great pure hitter who provides you a nice boost to your team BA. Unfortunately, for the second straight year, he is having injury problems. Last season it was his hand - it never truly healed, and he struggled at the plate for much of the season. This year, it is a hamstring, which for many players is the worst nagging injury you could have. His minor league track record doesn't indicate regular trips to the disabled list, but if his hamstring bothers him for most of this year, you have to look at him as an injury risk for the next year and beyond.
Erik Bedard: I predicted before the season began that he would have one, probably two, disabled list stints this year, but I take no joy from finding this prediction fulfilled. He's 6'1" but weighs only 190 lbs. That body frame is not built to handle the rigors of power pitching on a daily basis. Bedard didn't pitch at all last September, either, limiting him to 182 innings for the year. I consider lanky power pitchers a yearly injury risk, but the good news with Bedard: his injury is hip inflammation, rather than the usual elbow or shoulder problems. This is less likely to be recurring and perhaps - perhaps! - Bedard can get healthy and stay healthy for the rest of his career.

Scott Kazmir: Kazmir is, like Bedard, a 6 foot, 190 lb. power pitcher. His frame is not built to handle the rigors of throwing in the high 90s once every five days, and we've seen players just like him battle injuries year in and year out. He threw 206 innings last season, which is certainly a demanding workload, and his body is now showing the strain. The really bad news with Kazmir is that his is an elbow injury. There's no indication that it's serious, but I would not be surprised if someone predicted Tommy John surgery in Kazmir's future. This story has been told many times before, and it's one reason I generally avoid Kazmir in my fantasy leagues.
Any of these guys or a number of others could pick up the dreaded "oft-injured" label. I actually thought Josh Beckett was going down that road with his finger problems, but he has proven to be healthy and moved away from it. You generally don't want to be the owner holding the player once he acquires that label, because he becomes much harder to trade. Nonetheless, these players don't become unownable simply because they are going to get injured. Look at Fred Taylor in fantasy football - there are always people willing to take high risk/high reward types. Just know exactly what you're getting into with these types. Only time will tell if Kendrick, Bedard, and Kazmir will join this list.

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