.400: Will Jones or Berkman Displace Teddy Ballgame?

1941. That's the last time any major league baseball player has managed to hit .400 for an entire season. Many years, there are contenders, who fade as the season goes on or cannot quite break the barrier. This year's contenders are Chipper Jones and Lance Berkman. At season's end, will either one have a .400 batting average? 

I wanted to look at some numbers. I start by attempting to measure luck - in this case, I use BABIP. Granted, anyone who hits .400 in the modern era will need some good luck. Nonetheless, an analyst can only expect so much luck. Jones has a BABIP of .415 this year, almost a hundred points above his career number (.321). On the positive side, Jones had a BABIP of .343 and .352 in '06 and '07. This upwards trend gives some indication that he could maintain a high BABIP; nonetheless, I don't expect him to keep up a BABIP of .400 at season's end.

Berkman has a .397 BABIP, which is only 70 points off his career .327 mark. In 2001, Berkman did maintain a BABIP of .371 over a 156 game season, so he has proven before that he can maintain a high number. If he continues to hit for ridiculous power (SLG .759 this year), though, there won't be any reason he can't keep the BABIP high.

Larry Walker and Todd Helton, two the recent challengers of the .400 barrier, were both able to maintain BABIP well above their career averages (20 point difference for Helton, 40-50 point difference for Walker). It's possible to keep the BABIP inflated for an entire season, but it's difficult to predict whether the aging Jones or the slugging Berkman will be able to do so.

What else goes into hitting .400? Well, it's easier to maintain a high batting average if you see good pitches to hit. Both Jones and Berkman are well-protected in their respective lineups, Jones by Mark Teixeira and Berkman by Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee. Most pitchers are going to be forced to pitch to Jones and Berkman regularly enough that they should continue to see pitches to hit (unlike, for instance, Barry Bonds toward the end of his career).

Finally, I'd like to consider games played. It's easier to hit .400 in 20 games than 40 games, and it's easier to hit .400 in 130 games than 162. Jones has a distinct advantage here. Because of his age and recent injury history, Atlanta has been trying to rest Jones regularly. He seems to get days off weekly. If he can avoid any major injury, this scenario will likely help him to stay "hot" without an extended period of time off, while minimizing the number of games played, which should help him keep his batting average higher. Berkman has no such advantage - he will most likely be playing 150-160 games. 

Lance Berkman and Chipper Jones certainly won't be the last people to take a run at batting .400. Can either of them sustain this type of production for an entire season? My personal feeling is that they won't. They are well protected in their respective lineups, but I don't think either one will keep up their high BABIPs. There's a reason they play the games, though, and maybe we'll be lucky enough to see Teddy Ballgame's record fall in 2008.