Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Buyers and Sellers: NL Central

The "Comedy Central" is slowly gaining some respect around the league, with the Cards, Cubs, and Brewers all putting together potent offenses with league average pitching. Of the three, the Cardinals are certainly the biggest surprise, currently owning the second best record in all of baseball (if you need a parenthetical explanation that the Diamondbacks have the best, you are living under a rock). But which teams are going to stay at the top of the rankings?
St. Louis (21-12): It's tough to make a prediction about this team, though with Ankiel and Pujols in the middle of the lineup, and solid OBP ahead of them, the Cardinals have a chance if the division returns to form. Middle infield is a bit shaky, and they might have to push for improvement there if they are going to legitimately contend. The logjam in the outfield provides some trade bait, while Anthony Reyes has caught the attention of several teams. And unless Carpenter comes back as an ace, Wellemeyer and Lohse won't complement Wainwright enough to win. The only good news: Pujols should keep playing as St. Louis keeps winning.
Chicago (18-14): It pains me to admit this, but the Cubs have been struggling. Injuries have had something to do with it, since Soriano doesn't seem himself and Ramirez has been out longer than originally projected. Chicago is built as a win-now team, so I expect them to be buyers come July, with Brian Roberts or another left-hand hitting CF the main targets. Gallagher and Marshall will probably both leave, and will be spot-start worthy if they hit a rotation for good.
Milwaukee (16-15): The offense is set, and the best starters to trade for are likely on their roster, so this could be interesting. Obviously, the bullpen is in shambles, though they have depth there also. I can't see any major deals unless they somehow make a push for a Lowe or Burnett type.
Houston (16-16): You have to love a team that has very little chance, but is also built as to win-now. The pitching is bad, but I expect they will hold on to Towles and Ausmus isn't going to bring in a ton of talent. Your guess is as good as mine here, but if they are sellers, Tejada might be turned back into prospects.
Cincinnati (13-20): I'm amazed at how far the Reds have fallen, especially with the relative success of Volquez and Cueto. Griffey might leave after he hits #600, while Dunn would also leave if Baker and Co. opt to firesale. I personally think they should, since they have the young pitching to serve as a core and they can lean on Votto and Bruce as a foundation. 
Pittsburgh (12-19): I don't ever know what Pittsburgh is going to do, and I live there. Bay and Nady should leave, but the Pirates never seem to be content dealing for prospects. Jack Wilson is pretty washed up and should have been dealt last year, and since he won't have much value this year, I bet they move him. One thing is for certain--they can't do worse than last year's Matt Morris move.

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