Head-To-Head: Joey Votto vs. James Loney

I noticed a post on an ESPN message board after Joey Votto's 3-HR explosion today, asking whether the Reds 1B or his Dodgers counterpart would be more valuable for the rest of the season. I wanted to do a brief comparison of the two players to double-check my gut instinct. Here's what I considered:

Projections: FanGraphs does an awesome job with both Votto and Loney. The consensus seems to be that Votto will have more power than Loney, and will contribute more SBs, but Loney will have a higher BA. Loney was also expected to score more runs, with RBI being about even. From the 1B spot, I would argue that Votto is slightly more valuable - you expect power from 1B and it's more difficult than average to make up from elsewhere. However, the projected differences between the two wouldn't be great because the RBI numbers were so similar.

Ballpark: I always end up factoring this in with hitters, and it makes a huge difference here. Votto plays in Great American Ballpark, a notorious hitter's paradise, while Loney plays in spacious Dodger Stadium. This difference probably accounted for some of the differences in their HR projections, and it indicates a large advantage for Votto.

Competition: With young players, it's very important to consider the fact that they may or may not play the whole season. Loney has had the first base job pretty much nailed down in LA - they could reshuffle the lineup to move Jeff Kent or Nomar there if he really struggled, but it was clear entering 2008 that he was going to get every opportunity to succeed. Votto, however, was going to have to fight off Scott Hatteberg for playing time. Manager Dusty Baker is known for playing veterans, and the MARCEL and MINER projections on FanGraphs show this by projecting Votto to get only 220 and 331 at-bats, respectively. Now, however, it is clear that Votto will be getting regular at-bats the entire season. Loney's once-huge advantage in playing time has now disappeared.

At this point, the difference is clear - Grab Votto if there's any chance he's available. Loney will be a good option at first base, but Votto will be a better one (and has outfield eligibility in some leagues as well!). Keep in mind that Votto still could struggle, but it's now unlikely that he'll end up back in the minors. Give him some time to reach that enormous potential and you will certainly be rewarded in 2008.