The Splits: Jason Bay, Matt Holliday

So apparently, if I'm not struck with something brilliant for an article, I retreat to minor analysis of two players. I'm so thrilled to be bringing Bay and Holliday back together, because I still remember two years ago when the two were considered equal in fantasy circles. Times have certainly changed. 

I bring up the two because both share a similar home/away split. Bay and Holliday both hit much better in their home ballparks (this is a reversal of career trends for Bay in 2008 but right in line with Holliday's overall production). I bring this up also because both could potentially be traded. According to FanGraphs, the Rockies may shop Holliday if they continue to underperform, because his contract is up at the end of 2009 and he's represented by super-agent Scott Boras. Bay has been on the block in Pittsburgh for a while. What does all this mean? Let's talk about each player individually.

Jason Bay: As I stated, Bay's splits strongly favor hitting in PNC Park in 2008. He has 8 HR there, compared to 3 on the road, and is hitting over .300, compared to a batting average around the Mendoza Line outside the City of Champions. If you're a Bay owner, here's good news: The Buccos play 19 home games in June (9 on the road). I'm not sure how to make of his history producing better outside of PNC, either; it could be good news if you want him to get traded, or it could simply be a statistical anomaly. Either way, he's hitting the ball significantly better in the 'burgh, which means good things for fantasy owners as long as he's a Pirate. I see him producing very well for most of June, then getting moved toward the end of the month.

Holliday: Holliday is definitely the more interesting case because the split is so dramatic. Fangraphs points out that within Coors, he's Albert Pujols; outside of Coors, he's Aubrey Huff. The Rockies have a 50/50 split of the schedule for the rest of the season, with the exception of September. If you're in a head-to-head league that has playoffs, grab Holliday around the trade deadline. I might even overpay for him, because the Rockies play 15 home games before ending with their last six on the road in the season's final month. Pitching match-ups against San Diego and Arizona may dull this advantage; nonetheless, Holliday is doing his best Chipper Jones impersonation by hitting .369 at home thusfar. His career OPS at Coors is over 1.000 and he nearly doubles his HR and RBI totals in negligibly more games (lucky 13, to be exact). I'll try to re-post this later in the season, but remember as you gear up for the stretch drive: Matt Holliday can definitely take your team far in a playoff format in 2008.