Trendspotting: Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran

Well, this is my first shot at running a theme normally commandeered by Pete, but it's an issue that I find important. At this point in the season, you should start looking at your early round picks and asking whether you need to cut bait or keep fishing. For owners of Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, or Carlos Beltran (or all three, in the case of my team in my favorite league...) there's definitely been reason for concern. Since A-Rod is hurt and really unsellable for decent value, we will focus on the other two, whose injuries have seemed to catch up to them this season.

Alfonso Soriano: Even after Soriano's four-for-fiver yesterday, his batting average still stands at .223 and his power and speed numbers (3 HR, 3 SB) pale in comparison to most projections. I was curious how those numbers look when extrapolated over the entire season, since the left fielder did miss fourteen games this season, and he's currently on pace for only a 20-20 season. However, it's likely that some of his slump can be attributed to recovery, and he's always been a streaky hitter. Looking deeper in the numbers, one things stands out--his BABIP sits at a paltry .243. In 2007, his had a fortunate number of .334; in 2006, that number still sat as high as .300. Now, speedy guys like Soriano can beat out infield hits to keep that number high, and due to leg injuries, I would expect it to be around league average, still much higher than it is now. Another important statistic is his very low HR/FB ratio, which is way lower than his career average. Last time it was anywhere near this number (8.9%), he only hit 28 dingers. I would adjust any projections to around 30-20, but his average should come back up to around .270-.280, which means from this point forward he should hit decently well in the category.

Carlos Beltran: Beltran is another of those five-category producers who isn't living up to his hype. Most of his troubles can be traced to off-season knee surgery, through which he is not playing very well. Unfortunately, the same numbers that point to Soriano's upside are just plain scary with the Mets' center fielder. With a BABIP of .287, Beltran's average shouldn't drastically increase unless he figures out his problems. This is particularly worrisome since his GB% has been very high this season (46%, compared to 38% last season), which suggests he's been turning groundballs into singles, which he can't keep up if his knees aren't entirely healthy. In addition, Beltran's HR/FB ratio is the lowest in his career (8.1%, compared to 17.9% last year), suggesting he could very well hit less homeruns than the 16 he hit in 2005. Still, I expect the veteran to rebound, just not to the point that you drafted him for. Consider SB totals in the high teens as an upside and around 25 HRs. But with injury concerns and his lack of success playing through even small strains, he's worth moving for an outfielder in a tier lower.