Trendspotting: Clayton Kershaw, Jay Bruce

It's Monday night as I write this, and I know that I have no hope at getting Clayton Kershaw with my number four waiver in my Experts League. I was happy enough to get Bartolo Colon, only because no one wanted to use their waiver on him, even if it meant a blind faith in eleven other players passing on the Dodgers phenom. But now that an imminent add hangs in the balance, another contender for that number one waiver priority comes to light--Jay Bruce. Between the two, who should you add?

Clayton Kershaw: The easy answer to this question should be "whichever position you need more". However, with the upside of both candidates, its simply not that easy. Kershaw, he of a front page article on Yahoo! (the actual page, completely unrelated to sports), could in theory be Phil Hughes or Tim Lincecum. As I mentioned after his debut, his issue has been yielding walks, but he's gotten away with it by giving up exactly zero homeruns while in the minors (2.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). His K/9 was 9.76, in line with his seven K's in six last night. Compare that to Lincecum's 13.35 K/9 in the minors last year before his callup and you'll realize Kershaw is a bit overhyped, at least relative to Timmy. Kershaw and Lincecum had similar walk rates, play in pitchers' parks, and front relatively weak offenses. The latter sported a 4.00 ERA by seasons end, with it hovering in that ballpark most of the season. I think similar expectations are realistic for Kershaw--he will provide about a K per inning, suffer for lack of run support, and give you quality starts without blowing you away.

Jay Bruce: Bruce hasn't had an at-bat in the majors, but teams in my leagues had named their team after him for awhile now. He is the stuff of legends, but is currently overshadowed by Kershaw on several of the most common providers (ESPN, Yahoo!, to name a few). Over three levels of A-ball in 2006, Bruce gathered 26 HRs in 143 games, never sporting a BA less than .300. This year, he's already hit ten bombs and sports a .363 BA; translation? He's ready. With his propensity to strike out (every four at-bats in the minors) that BA will come back to earth, but the Reds should be able to protect him with Phillips, Griffey, Dunn, Votto, and Encarnacion in that lineup. If he sees good pitches, he has the power to make the best of them. ZiPS projects him hitting .266 with 20 HRs, assuming he gets over 500 at bats. That average seems a bit low in light of his success in the minors. Matt Kemp has managed to bat above .300 despite similar strikeout struggles, so their is no reason Bruce can't bat .280+. I expect he will, batting close to .300 while launching about 20 HRs and stealing a handful of bases (he stole only 2 in the minors this year, but picked up 19 in 2006). Playing at the Great American Ballpark is a bonus, and the NL Central pitching isn't too pretty with a few exceptions.