Fantasy Roundtable Discussion

This is it. A rites of passage into the network of fantasy baseball blogs. Finally, after months (in truth, not very long, thank you for supporting the website so soon after we founded it) Rotonomics is hosting its first roundtable discussion. The question?

What injured pitcher and hitter do you think will pleasantly surprise owners when they return later this season?

I encouraged other writers to look deeper than names such as Jake Peavy, who would have obviously been a spot on selection. So without further adieu, lets get to the names...

Rudy Gamble, Razzball

Phil Hughes: On the pitcher side, my first thought is Chris Carpenter but it's doubtful that he'll be at full strength this year. I'm going to go with Phil Hughes as he will be back this year and he'll return with lower expectations. If the Yanks have a hot 2nd half, he can deliver some wins and decent Ks with an expected ERA around 4.00. Would I stash him now? In a deep league where I had room on the DL, sure. I also think Zumaya will throw some quality innings (and espec. Ks) but he's not going to close games. Can't get THAT excited over a middle reliever.
Rafael Furcal: On the hitting side, Furcal should do fine when he gets back assuming he stays healthy which seems like a big if given he's been banged up for two years. I expect Holliday to come back strong as well but that's no surprise. Same for Ortiz. I'm going to go with Eric Byrnes. He won't perform like last year but he could go for a pro-rated 20 HR / 20 SB for a couple months.
(Note: For Razzball, I'm banking on a triumphantly bad return from Adam Everett).

Eric Stashin, RotoProfessor

Travis Hafner: With his struggles over the past season and a half, I think the Indians' Travis Hafner qualifies here. I know the average saw a dramatic drop-off last season, down to .266 after three consecutive .300+ seasons, but he still managed to drive in 100 runs.

Here ya go: Prior to the injury he was hitting .217 with 4 HR and 22 RBI, so the numbers were significantly down, even from his letdown of a 2007 season. There's no way in my mind that a player who was as good as Hafner was from 2004-2006 has just completely lost it completely like this.
The Indians as a whole have struggled offensively, though a healthy Travis Hafner would definitely help the offense get on track, at least a little bit. I'm not saying he is going to hit 20 HR and return to being a .300 hitter in the second half, but there's no reason to think that he won't be at least the player he was last season, if not better.
He was pretty consistent last season, hitting .262 with 14 HR and 57 RBI prior to the break and .270 with 10 HR and 43 RBI following it. Considering that he is currently owned in just 55% of CBS leagues, if he can produce anywhere near where he did in the second half once he returns, it would be considered a pleasant surprise for owners who stuck with him.

Rob Reed, BaseballGeeks

Hank Blalock: I think we've gotten all of the fluky injuries out of the way. Of course, I thought that when he went out having to have a rib removed late last season. Somewhere in the middle east, I imagine that rib developing into a beautiful brunette whose company would certainly make up for the dead weight that Mr. Blalock has put on many of my farm squads.

To the facts: 10 HR, 32 R, 33 RBI in 208 ABs last season. 82% contact rate with his .293 BA last season. He hit in eight of his last ten, with five of those eight being multi-hit games. 90% contact rate before he went out this season, with his .290+ BA. The wrist injury is of some substantial concern, as it likely could affect his power (and I think he was just days away from the power stroke revealing itself before he went on the DL). BUT, I touted Blalock preseason, and I'm sticking with him in the long haul. A second half, hitting .285, with 50 RBI, 50 R, and 15 HRs is entirely possible. And, I'm being conservative because of the wrist.

Joel Zumaya: Just filthy stuff. 100 mph fastball, which just gets me all hot and bothered. He has pitched four scoreless innings in Class A ball, and the Tigers are aiming to bring him back as soon as next week.
You tack on the fact that, in my view, he was heir apparent to the closer job before he got hurt, and that the Tigers are currently going with a 4.2+ ERA, 40-year old closer in Todd Jones... well, then Zumaya has sleeper potential dripping out of his pores.
The only caveat is that the Tigers better hire a personal bodyguard who follows Joel around... not for the purpose of protecting Zumaya's person but to make sure that he isn't moving anybody's furniture. Were I a member of the Tigers' brass, in fact, I would make damned sure that this "bodyguard" would even carry Joel's groceries.

Mike Muschiano, PojoFantasyBaseball

Chris Carpenter: Carl Pavano….sorry, spasm. Chris Carpenter: on target for a big-league return in July, the 2005 Cy Young award winner is very capable of making a serious impact. Recovering from Tommy John surgery, a return is certainly not a definite but he has not suffered any setbacks yet. Prior to missing essentially the entire 2007 season, Carpenter won 21 games in ’05 and 15 in ’06 posting ERAs of 2.83 and 3.09, respectively. If he does return, I think he could definitely be a pleasant surprise.
Nomar Garciaparra: Well, let me explain myself before I even try and make something rational out of this. This was a very shallow pool of injured players to choose from that were not obvious. That said, Garciaparra is eligible for third base and first base, and is likely to play shortstop until Furcal returns. He would be a multi-position player with some upside. Once one of the premier shortstops in the league, Garciaparra would certainly be a shot in the dark, but could pleasantly surprise.

Commish, FantasyBaseballGeeks

Jason Isringhausen: Not sure if he counts, considering the severity of his "injury" may have been a work of fiction so they could get the kinks worked out following his awful start (1-5, 6 BS, 8.00 ERA, 1.78 WHIP). Izzy has started a rehab assignment in Single A and I will guess that after a couple more weeks he will be back in the bullpen for the Cardinals. If all goes well, he should be closing right after the all-star break. My guess is that he gets to 25+ saves on the season (which equals another 14+ for the remainder of the season) along with an ERA in the high 2's and a WHIP right around 1.200. Not the best closer in the game but back to being a Top 15 closer for the 2nd half of the season.

Troy Tulowitzki: Another guy that could be back in a couple of weeks. I think Tulo is a
no-brainer to get back to the levels that made him a Top 50 pre-season pick. Like Izzy, Tulowitzki was an under performer prior to the injury (.152/1 HR/10 R/11 RBI/1 SB). Look for the Tulo owner who you can buy-low from (tell him that he is coming off injury and has more K's than Hits). I would look to make a move now for Tulo as the closer he gets to Colorado the more the price is going to go up. He will be a Top 4 SS for the 2nd half of the season. It may be risky but if I owned Miggy Tejada I would consider a Tejada/Tulo trade and look to maybe get a playable throw in included in the deal. You get the throw in, plus (in my opinion) the better SS for the rest of the season.

Mike Podhorzer, Fantasy Baseball Generals

Troy Tulowitzki: Many owners may have given up on him after a slow start and the quad injury that has kept him out since the end of April. "Sophomore slump" you would have almost undoubtedly heard if the slump lasted much longer. In fact, he was actually dropped in one of my leagues that does have DL slots, and so I happily scooped him up with my #1 waiver claim. His .152 batting average is due to an abnormally low .172 BABIP, and he was actually striking out less than last year. His walk rate was in range of last season and he was hitting a couple of more fly balls this year, a good sign for his HR potential. Although I did feel he was overvalued at draft day, I think he'll fully rebound and provide good value, especially if he returns to the 2nd spot in the order.

Pedro Martinez: Although he's already returned from the DL, I still think he fits the criteria here. The most important thing for Pedro is that his velocity is the highest it's been in years, as he's been consistently peaking in the low 90's, whereas in previous years he would struggle to even hit 90. This is a great sign that he's fully recovered from the shoulder surgery that he returned from last season. I think we could forgive him for his poor first outing against the Giants where he had unusual control issues, walking 3 hitters in 6 innings and only striking out 3. His 2nd start back was more encouraging as he struck out 4 and walked none in 5 innings. He's still an extreme fly ball pitcher which could lead to occasional HR issues, but I think he has a great chance to post a mid-3's ERA, with an always sterling WHIP. For those in leagues with an innings cap (usually Yahoo leagues), his value rises as his K/9 will be more valuable than his straight K's assuming he won't pitch that deep into games too often.
I wanted to give an Honorable Mention to Clay Buchholz who was DL'ed several weeks ago and then sent to the minors where he'll remain for a while. I was a big fan this year and although his surface ERA doesn't bear it out, I don't think his performance has disappointed. He was striking out over a batter an inning, and although his walk rate was an unacceptable 4.3 per 9, he was inducing grounders at a solid 47% rate. All put together, his xFIP was a very solid 3.67, compared to his actual ERA of 5.53. A huge .376 BABIP and low 64.8% LOB% could be blamed for the inflated ERA. He should be back up for the last month of the season at the latest, so single-season owners shouldn't forget about him and especially keeper leaguers. This could actually be a prime buying opportunity for those in keeper leagues, and his poor ERA and demotion also has the added bonus of making him a possible bargain in drafts next year.

Jason Collette, RotoJunkie

Rocco Baldelli: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on, errr, screw it. Rocco Baldelli is going to come back and give owners a productive second half. He has to - he's in the last year of his deal since the Rays did not pick up his option. He has to audition for another contract and not  playing this year is not going to help him. He's already playing in extended spring training games so he is at least trying to make the effort. You know what you can get from him when he is healthy; in a season full of suprise in Tampa, he might be next.
Joey Devine: Joey Devine is solid when he is healthy. He's deadly on right-handed pitching and with Casilla out hurt and Street always rumored to be on the trading block, Devine could find himself saving games in the second half. Even if he doesn't get saves, he's been very helpful as a MR in AL only leagues this year with his WHIP and ERA.

Tim Dierkes, RotoAuthority
Joel Zumaya: Zumaya is pretty close to returning; he's thrown five innings so far on his rehab assignment (four games). Whether or not the Tigers are out of contention, he should be the favorite for saves in the second half. Mike Gonzalez is another guy to quietly pick up before he returns from the DL. Chris Ray might be one other to consider later in the season.
Carlos Pena: Due to poor performance and then a broken finger, he's fallen off the radar. He should still perform at a 30 HR/100 RBI type pace when he returns.

Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

Mike Gonzalez: The injured pitcher who will pleasantly surprise owners when they return later this season will be Mike Gonzalez of the Braves. With Smoltz our for the year and Rafael Soriano seemingly hurt on a regular basis, Gonzalez culd wind up with 15 saves when all is said and done. He's got experience from his days in Pittsburgh and is someone to add now for he's about to come off the DL in the coming weeks.
Troy TulowitzkiThe injured hitter who will surprise owners when they return later this season will be Troy Tulowitski of the Rockies. He was a consensus top 5 shortstop going into 2008 and unluckily tore a quad muscle which will keep him out for most of the season. However, he will return by the dog days of August when we will need him most. He hit .290 last year, scored 104 runs, drove in 99 and smacked 24 homers. He's someone to try acquiring now cheaply so you can reap the benefits later in the year.