Midseason Rankings: Starting Pitcher
Well, you asked for them, and so here they are. This is a particularly challenging endeavor, I quickly realized, because you have to either trust a player's career performances, their 2007 performance (which is usually too influential in preseason rankings), or their performance thus far in 2008. That said, I expect these to be controversial, if only because Rich Harden is a living, breathing entity. Do complain, argue, or applaud any ranking you see fit, as Pete's editorial will explain the importance of. 
Tier One:
- Johan Santana
- C.C. Sabathia
- Jake Peavy
- Brandon Webb
- John Lackey
- Scott Kazmir
Some Comments: I would still prefer Santana over anyone; you know he's going to get hot at some point, and while he will never go in the first round of drafts again, he's still the epitome of fantasy staff ace. Unlike the rest of these pitchers, Sabathia has already played through his yearly funk, and I expect he will continue to succeed especially if traded to the NL. Kazmir and Lackey are the only surprises, and its because of their dominance and their teams' success. While Lackey has the longer track record, Kazmir is still at the improvement stage of his career and could hold his numbers all season.
Tier Two:
- Roy Halladay
- Rich Harden
- Cole Hamels
- Carlos Zambrano
- Felix Hernandez
- Tim Lincecum
- Dan Haren
- Josh Beckett
Comments: Yes, Harden is this good, and his last couple outings have been so great because he's held back to prevent injury, and the results were as phenomenal as ever. Hamels and Zambrano get a boost because their teams are winning. Lincecum could be higher, but anyone who sees his delivery fears an injury every time he goes out to pitch.
Tier Three:
- Edinson Volquez
- Erik Bedard
- Ben Sheets
- Javier Vazquez
- Aaron Harang
- Joba Chamberlain
- Tim Hudson
- Daisuke Matsuzaka
- James Shields
- Ervin Santana
- Chad Billingsley
Comments: Bedard is this low because either he stays in Seattle and barely reaches double digit wins, or he's traded away from SafeCo and his deep flyball tendencies ruins his decent ERA. Haren and Matsuzaka have second half issues, while Volquez, Duschcherer, Chamberlain, and Billingsley all have innings-pitched maximums. The rest have been good, but just not aces.
Tier Four:
- Justin Verlander
- Cliff Lee
- Matt Cain
- Roy Oswalt
- Justin Duchscherer
- Ted Lilly
- Fausto Carmona
- Dustin McGowan
- John Maine
- John Danks
- Francisco Liriano
- Johnny Cueto
- Jered Weaver
- Shaun Marcum
- Kelvim Escobar
- Chris Young
- Zack Greinke
- Pedro Martinez
Comments: I think the talent from top to bottom of this tier shows the largest gap, but I can't justify a tier difference between Pedro and Verlander, as its not quite a "marginal pitcher". A lot of upside, a lot of underperformers or overperformers. The guys returning from injury could surprise, but if they start rusty their overall second half performance will suffer. And yes, I still don't believe in Cliff Lee.
Tier Five:
- Jonathon Sanchez
- Jon Lester
- A.J. Burnett
- Jesse Litsch
- Derek Lowe
- Gavin Floyd
- Oliver Perez
- Adam Wainwright
- Joe Saunders
- Andy Pettitte
- Chris Carpenter
- Dana Eveland
- Jair Jurrjens
- Todd Wellemeyer
- Ryan Dempster
- Matt Garza
- Adam Miller
Comments: This level is pretty much just above marginal. I like most of the players more than spot starters, but in shallow leagues they might not be worth owning. As a side note, I tend to switch out pitchers in this level for solid middle relievers if possible, especially in head to head leagues where one bad start can cost you the week.
If I forgot anyone, please comment and I will update it. More rankings will come later, but this is a topic where the more dialogue we get going, the better we can gauge the true value of each of the players.
Thank you to the commenters thus far, as these rankings are constantly updated.
Labels: Position Rankings
posted by Zachary Piso at
12:27 PM
18 Comments:
i like kazmir, but i think you're overrating him. he and harden are both injury-prone, but i think harden is better when they're both healthy.
Kazmir was really tough to rank because while he and Harden have proven to get injured, I don't think Kazmir has a long enough track record to earn the title "injury prone". Pete wrote a good article on the topic a couple weeks ago.
I really want to move Peavy ahead of him, but the Padres ace will probably get fewer wins even if Kazmir goes down, while the difference in peropheral stats is marginal. Thoughts on where Kazmir should end up?
Ok, the first 2 tiers were ok but after that forget about it. Ones that stood out: Pedro being anywhere but last. Wellemeyer and Sanchez have pitched very well and shouldnt be in that last tier. I feel like I am looking at the allstar balloting instead of ranking by the stats.
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The goal here wasn't to rank players by simply how they've performed this season... Both Wellemeyer and Sanchez were nothing more than bad relievers coming into this year. Like, career ERA in the neighborhood of 5.00 (as a reliever!) coming into this season. With career relievers, you have to consider how many innings they will be able to throw the rest of the way. Sanchez is over 100 strikeouts, which is awesome, but he also has 3 starts where he's given up 7 earned, which is tough, especially in weekly leagues.
As far as Pedro goes, he only has one season with an ERA over 4.00 in a 15-year career. That's a pretty amazing track record and it deserves at least a little respect, in my opinion. I don't know that he'll be all that great the rest of the way, but if you believe in Santana, Wright, Reyes and the rest of the Mets to turn things around, you have to believe Pedro will be a part of it with some quality outings the rest of the year.
Anonymous #2, I actually agree that Pedro shouldn't belong in the fourth tier, but one thing that in my opinion differentiates the fourth and fifth tier is liquidity. When I did the rankings, I both considered who I'd want to have, along with who I'd prefer already owning. Pedro is a high risk fantasy player, but at least you can move him rather than be stuck having the drop him.
The fifth tier is a bit different, because most of the guys have short track records and little to no name recognition. Oswalt is the exception, because his struggling had been so anticipated and so well publicized that even someone living under a fantasy rock would know to beware.
Thanks for commenting so far everyone, I appreciate it.
Anonymous #2, I actually agree that Pedro shouldn't belong in the fourth tier, but one thing that in my opinion differentiates the fourth and fifth tier is liquidity. When I did the rankings, I both considered who I'd want to have, along with who I'd prefer already owning. Pedro is a high risk fantasy player, but at least you can move him rather than be stuck having the drop him.
The fifth tier is a bit different, because most of the guys have short track records and little to no name recognition. Oswalt is the exception, because his struggling had been so anticipated and so well publicized that even someone living under a fantasy rock would know to beware.
Thanks for commenting so far everyone, I appreciate it.
yeah, i would agree that kazmir isn't considered quite as injury-prone as harden, but i still think kazmir is too high. when i look at tier #1, he just looks so out of place. bedard is turning into an injury-prone starter himself. and with the m's being terrible, i don't see him getting many w's. i would slide him down a bit. dan haren has been lights out. i know he had a "bad" 2nd half last season, but i think that was a fluke. he belongs in tier #2. i think having bedard ranked over haren is insane. justin duchscherer has been great so far this season, but i just don't see him continuing to be this good. he's been in the bullpen the past few years, so i could see him wearing down. also, he doesn't get alot of k's. and the last name that stuck out to me was ervin santana. i think you have him ranked too low. his road woes seem to be behind him and he's been amazing. i would definitely move him up to tier #3.
How can Rich Harden be ranked higher than Ben Sheets? True, Sheets has been an injury risk throughout his career, but next to Harden he looks like Cal Ripken Jr. And Sheets has pitched every bit as well as Harden this season, if not better.
It's tough addressing all of these, but I'll try to do it player by player -
Kazmir: I think Kazmir deserves to be in the top tier. However, given his BABIP is a bit too low (I expect it will stay beneath career numbers due to an improved Rays infield defense) and his LOB% at 80%, he's been demoted.
Haren: Last year around this time, Haren had an ERA a half a point lower than where it is now. He pitched with an ERA more than a point higher the rest of the way, just as he did in 2006. He BABIP is 30 points lower than his career average, so that should even out. He could get lucky and maintain what he's doing, but I don't trust it.
Harden and Sheets: Harden's K/9 is at 11.15, while Sheets's is at 7.36. Also, Sheets has an ERA more than half a point higher than harden. This despite Harden's BABIP being actually higher than Sheets's shows just how dominant the A's righty has been. They have both been great, but if Harden stays healthy, he will probably be the best pitcher this season. If Sheets does, he will be one of the better pitchers, but won't carry teams like Harden could.
Ervin Santana: His ERA has been increasing steadily each month this season, but he belongs in the third tier, as you said. Glad to move him up.
Justin Duschcherer: As my comment section indicates, I'm worried about the wear on this guy. That said, he belongs in the "What If" section. Since at least 90% of a league is losing, those teams have to take risks along this category, and I think Tier three represents the risks worth taking while tier four risks are a bit more desperate. More accurately, tier three is "these players could continue to play this well, and help you win", while tier four is "these players might a) turn things around or b) surprise everyone by maintaining unlikely stats and help you win"
I'll make some edits and bump the thread. Thanks everyone so far, this is going smoothly.
I have an note to say about Pedro. His BABIP right now is .371, which is just absurdly high. Combine this with the fact that he is getting more groundballs than ever and you see why I think that high ERA is a fluke. The Mets should be able to turn it around and get him the wins he needs, while his peripherals should come back to earth.
That said, his control has been bad this season. I think it's an adjustment phase as he comes to terms with a diminished fast ball velocity and tries to aim. Once throwing those low "smart" pitches issues fewer walks, his numbers will be great. I'm just not sure it will happen, or he'd be higher than the bottom of tier four.
Here's how I see it.
Tier one should really be
Santana, Peavy, Webb, Sabathia, Beckett, Halladay, and yes I think Lackey and Kazmir. Halladay is an unquestioned ace, and his K rate is way up this year, making him a fantasy standout. Beckett has also been great, his K/BB is fabulous, no reason he shouldn't be in tier 1.
Tier 2:
Lincecum, Haren, Sheets, Hamels, Big Z, Felix, Harden....im tempted to throw in Bedard(based on last year), and Harang(on track record). Naysayers on Haren, he had a rough 2nd half last year, but moving to the NL west helps, and he very well is still improving. He is very solid. The question on Sheets has never been health.
Tier 3:
Volquez, Vazquez, Shields, Dice K, Santana, Chamberlain, Hudson, Billingsley, Oswalt, Verlander.
Big differences here. Some name guys get here well, on name. Oswalt has not been vintage for sure, but he has been unlucky with his homerun rate, and he has recently remembered he has very good stuff and has decided to strike guys out again. I expect a very Oswalt like 2nd half. I also think Verlander(who many predicted the AL CY for) to return to form. Santana is legit, Shields is great, others solid.
Past this, i do not believe in Duschcherer, 55k's in 85 inn, eh, k/Bb is not bad, but its like saying joe saunders is good. Lee has been great, maybe he should be in tier 3, Cain has been disapointing but he should improve, Danks has been awesome, Cueto underwhelming (but also very unlucky IMO)Dempster, Jurrjens, and Garza have also been very nice. Ditto Slowey who isn't even on here.
thanks for moving ervin up. like i said, i think that's a great move.
and i although i disagree about kazmir and haren, i don't strongly disagree. but if i were to do a midseason draft right now, i would take haren over felix. so i think felix should be the last name in tier #2 and haren should be right above him.
on the other hand, i do strongly disagree with duchscherer. u said that tier 4 risks are more desperate, and in my opinion, u can't get much more desperate than counting on him to continue to be this good.
and i forgot about cliff lee. i don't consider him desperate. no way he duplicates his first half #'s, but i think he'll still be very good. having cliff ranked in a tier below dusch is a head-scratcher. they both pitched over their heads the first half, cliff pitched much better, cliff's numbers lead u to believe that he can be very good in the 2nd half, and cliff has actually been a SP the past few years vs being a reliever.
so how about we flip dusch and cliff, and at least flip haren and bedard. just for me. please? ;)
also, john maine is not listed, he needs to be in there probably tier 4. Also Chris Young should be in there, also tier 4 i guess.
Thanks, I shouldn't have forgotten Maine. I'm agreeing with you guys on Duschcherer, after looking at how many batters he is stranding while his BABIP is too low.
I can't rank Haren higher, I'm sorry I just feel that trusting his performance would be overvaluing recent data points. The NL West move argument doesn't hold water to me since he's in a hitters park now while his first half last year was actually better than this year.
I'll make some changes.
are we ready to move kazmir down yet? he hasn't thrown a 7th inning pitch in a month. i think to be considered a 1st tier SP, u have to consistently pitch deep into games, at least the 7th. and like i said, kazmir has not gone 6 innings in almost a month.
also, don't forget to keep an eye on haren. he'll need to be moved up before too long.
I think I agree, and will go ahead and make a few changes. However, I think a good baseball player has to pitch seven, while a good fantasy player doesn't have that requirement. Kazmir still sits among the lead leaders in K's and even if he's innefficient, he gets the job done.
I think I agree, and will go ahead and make a few changes. However, I think a good baseball player has to pitch seven, while a good fantasy player doesn't have that requirement. Kazmir still sits among the lead leaders in K's and even if he's innefficient, he gets the job done.
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