Mythbusters: 27 Year Old Pitchers

Welcome to the newest segment of Rotonomics (which is the newest segment of MLBTradeRumors), entitled Mythbusters. I think it's only fair to rip off the idea since Pete and I look very much like the actors on the show (Pete is on the left, though I'm not sure that this is the more denigrating position) . As we discussed in our "Surveying the Signals" editorials, one aspect of life that economics has a great deal to say about is signaling. In the macro-level Fantasy Baseball world (as opposed to micro-level signaling in your own league, which is also important), most of this signaling can be perceived in the articles run by megasites such as Yahoo! or ESPN. Our hope here in Mythbusters is to uncover some of the cliche article suggestions, and decide whether or not this information is reliable.

In our first edition, I'd like to kick off "Pitcher's Week" with a characteristically "pitcher" issue, the legend that 27 year old pitchers have a good shot at throwing their career year. Along with the "three-year plan" (stolen from a legendary high school Statistics teacher better left unnamed), which is the theory that pitchers in their third major league season will also peak, a pitchers age is often cited as evidence for an imminent breakout. Now, most of the arguments I have seen are notably anecdotal, where they cite success stories of the past, but to be fair the amount of statistical research the myth may have one day sprung forth from will not be matched. Rather, we will look at the 2008 season, and see what we can conclude.

So, who was 27 this season? Well, a complete list was compiled over at the "Scouting Book" blog, and I thank them for their work (which I will now steal). Only counting the starting pitchers that began the season on everyone's fantasy radar, there are a total of sixteen names. Who beat their career numbers so far?

The Winners: Joe Saunders shows the greatest improvement, with an ERA more than a point and a half south of his career number of 4.71. Looking at last week's Fantasy Roundtable Discussion, several authors expect the Angels star to fall back to Earth, but he'd need a complete collapse not to beat his averages. Also, Daniel Cabrera is beating his best years, although the results have been far from breathtaking. Jake Peavy, C.C. Sabathia, and Carlos Zambrano are all beating their average ERA numbers, though none have thrown better than past seasons (when Peavy and Sabathia each threw Cy Young seasons last year). John Maine is also beating his career numbers but is more hittable than ever with regard to WHIP and BAA. Dan Haren is right now beating his best season, but his ERA is .70 higher than it was in the first half last season, so I'm going to hedge my bet and predict he won't keep it up. Similarly, Daisuke Matsuzaka is beating a terrible career ERA, but has shown himself to struggle with the length of an MLB season. For fairness, we will exclude these two from our conclusion.

The Losers: These are the unqualified flailers. If you were counting on anything from Brett Myers or Oliver Perez, you are probably far from the lead in your league. Jeff Francis, Joe Blanton, and the perennially injured Mark Prior look like they will have little value this season. Even Josh Beckett has been a disappointment--at least we could figure out to bench Sabathia during his consistently awful start and exceedingly brilliant followup. Shawn Hill and Adam Wainwright haven't surpassed their career bests, and injuries seem to cripple any chance of doing so.

So the verdict? Without factoring in the ambiguous Haren and Dice-K, we have only two unqualified success stories. Counting the three aces who were discussed among the winners, who I expect will at least beat their draft spot (even the second-rounder Jake Peavy), we have five winners, and nine losers. I'd have to say that this myth is busted.