Strategic Spot Starting: Week Edition

This is going to be a bit more analytical than most Spot Starting Tools. I'd like to look at some team hitting, and profile the worst OPS (here approximating run generation) in the splits. So first, let's look at "vs. LHP" and "vs. RHP" across the majors (data gathered here):

• Six teams have an OPS under seven hundred against LHP - Toronto (worst at .641), Oakland, Minnesota, Washington, Florida, and San Diego. Cleveland just beats the mark at .701. This provides two news teams worth streaming against, Florida and Cleveland, as long as the pitcher is a southpaw.
• Four teams have an OPS on the wrong side of that mark against righties - Seattle (.663), Washington, Kansas City, and the L.A. Dodgers. Cincinnati and San Diego just beat the mark at .701. I would say that the Dodgers and the Reds are additions to the list.
• Against lefties, San Francisco, Colorado, and Baltimore are among the top ten, with Baltimore posting an OPS of .800 as a team. Against righties, Florida is killing the ball, so their splits are pretty drastic. Needless to say, these matchups shouldn't be targeted.

Another important split for team hitting is Home vs. Away. A lot of this can be summed up by park biases, which we normally include intuitively, but the numbers provide some additional insight.

• Only two teams post a sub-.700 OPS at home, which isn't much of a surprise. However, one of those teams is the Angels, who provide an additional option. No one else in the bottom ten is much of a surprise.
• A full third of the league hits below .700 on the road, with notable teams including Houston (.669), Arizona (.679), and Detroit (.685). Somehow, Pittsburgh is killing the ball on the road, as well as Florida and St. Louis.

So on to this week's options. Take that data with a grain of salt, because most factors overlap and may disguise or exaggerate team batting weaknesses. Still, it's better to be aware of what might be than start RHPs against the Marlins.

Monday: Brian Bannister is the only worthy spot starter, pitching at home against Colorado. He has been the Ervin Santana of years past, posting a 2.80 ERA at home compared to a 7.78 ERA away from home. Bannister is a righty and the Rockies have been predictably bad away from Coors, so I'd use him despite his recent struggles.

Tuesday: Weekly favorite Justin Masterson goes up against the Diamondbacks at Fenway. Darrell Rasner faces the Pirates at PNC Park, so that should be a gem and a likely win. Kevin Slowey gets the safety of Petco and the anemia of the Padres, so I like his chances their also. And the addition our stats would indicate is Jonathon Sanchez, the southpaw, against Cleveland. Jon Garland ain't to shabby on the road against Washington (the other team with a home OPS under .700), where he will also provide a likely win.

Wednesday: Wakefield at Fenway is always good, and against the Diamondbacks should be better. Greg Maddux at home is usually safe, and while the splits don't point to the Twins as an especially favorable matchup, it is at a pitchers park.

Thursday: Mike Mussina is a good bet against the Pirates, while the righty Jesse Litsch should succeed against the Reds away from the Great American Ballpark. Beware of other seemingly ideal matchups such as Garza against the Fish, because it doesn't look like a sunny forecast.