Friday, June 13, 2008

Trendspotting: AJ Pierzynski, Mike Napoli

So, in watching players go down, we're going to try to get you some advice on how to replace them. I'm starting with Victor Martinez, because catcher is always a tough position to fill, and odds are his owners won't have any trade options. Two guys who are probably available in most formats are AJ Pierzynski and Mike Napoli. What does each bring to the table?

AJ Pierzynski: Pierzynski is hitting a solid .301 this year. He is an underrated fantasy catcher, in my opinion, because he provides a little pop and doesn't kill your average. Honestly, if you own Kenji Johjima (.226 batting average in 2008), you might want to look at Pierzynski seriously as well. The main question would be - will he sustain this success? The stats indicate, yes he will. His BABIP is .323, which seems high but is only 15 points ahead of his career average. His slugging and OBS are similarly in line with - though slightly above - his career numbers. He's cut down on his strikeouts (2008 K % = 10%, career K % = 12%). Remember Jorge Posada in 2007? It's not insane to think that a veteran catcher can have a good season late in his career. I like Pierzynski to be productive the rest of the year. He won't carry your team to first, but he won't carry it to the cellar, either. Sometimes, from the catcher position, that's all you need.

Mike Napoli: The Angels catcher has always had pop in his bat since being called up in 2006. This year, though, it seems like he's finally developing his stroke. He already has 10 home runs, matching his season total from last year. The low RBI total is annoying, but if he keeps hitting for power, he'll be driving people in eventually. And as far as the low batting average (a terrifying .205 on the season)... Well, his BABIP is a ridiculous .203 this season. Even if he tried, I don't think Napoli could keep that number that low for the rest of the season. So if you haven't been able to replace JR Towles since he was sent to the minors, Napoli certainly deserves a look. The average will come up, and the power is here to stay. Like Pierzynski, he might not carry your team to the championship alone, but he'll certainly earn a starting spot for the rest of the season.

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