Trendspotting: Vladimir Guerrero, Alex Rios

I owe all of you a post. Friday is my normal "editorial" day, but this week I had to attend a graduation (as a side note, I congratulation any of our high school readers that may have escaped their confines). While I'd like to soon return to some economic analyses, I think these two players present a pertinent subject. In my Yahoo! league, I play with differentiated outfield, with one rightfielder, centerfielder, and leftfielder. Rios and Guerrero both offer right field eligibility, with the former also holding a spot in center.

Vladimir Guerrero: I will be the first to admit that Guerrero is not the first or second round talent he once was. He's playing in his thirteenth season and is now a supposed thirty-two years of age. However, he's always been a consistent hitter for average and RBIs, and this year he's far off pace of his career numbers. Currently batting .251, he's seemingly floundering at the plate. There is cause for hope, though, in the fact that his .274 BABIP is nearly 50 points off his career number. His walk rate is too low also, suggesting he's not seeing the ball well (ordinarily fixable and indicate of "just" a slump). I really think he can finish the season batting .300, so a couple of ridiculous month are on their way once his luck flattens out. His hits have been very close to last years distribution (LD%, GB%, and FB%), so really roughly the same average should come out of these. His power won't exceed 30 HR, but if you drafted for more you were a bit too nostalgic. Looking at his HR/FB, it's regressed about 1.8% of the past six years. This year the drop in over 3%, which is too steep of a decline to be explaned by age. He's popping up to the infield less, so when the hits come they should be of the extra-base variety.

Alex Rios: Rios was supposed to go 30-30 this preseason. In April when the speed was there, everyone assumed the power was coming and that he'd be a steal of the draft. I really want him to return to form, but I just can't reasonably predict it. His average sits at a paltry .265, but his BABIP is .333, well above the league average but exactly in line with his career stats. The problem for Rios is that he can't get the ball in the air, hitting more than 10% more groundballs than last (almost all of these hits came away from FB%, as his LD% is roughly the same). Beyond this, his power numbers are half of what they were last year, and fewer fly balls plus fewer HR per FB spells much less power. Now, the dominance of groundballs is probably a mechanic issue, so once he starts hitting the ball over the infield you can start speculating. He hasn't had a homerun though since May 1st, nor hit extra base hits in consecutive games since April 5th and 6th. Right now, it's just not there.

If you have Rios, try to trade him for someone who has faith in his upside. He's young, so he should figure it out eventually, though maybe not anytime soon. If you don't have him, don't look at him as a buy low. Guerrero on the other hand is a great trade option. The narratives are endless, from his age (which could be forty for all we know) to his injury woes. You could get him for cheap, and he should reward bountifully.