What's With Those Florida Teams? [Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria]

So, even though Tampa has fallen back to second place behind Boston in the AL East, I'd still like to take a look at their offense and their staff to try to see why they've had such success and whether it will be sustainable over this year and the next few. 

The first guy I want to talk about is Carl Crawford. I have to say, I think he's been one of the most overrated fantasy players over the past few years. There is no denying that he will have a high average, score runs, and steal bases. Of course, historically, he has been unable to be an elite run producer because there's been nobody to drive him in. But I have always felt that his lack of power means he doesn't belong in the first or second round, where he has consistently been drafted. That being said, I believe his numbers so far are too low, and he is a great guy to target in your mid-season trades. His BABIP is under .300 (after a .375 mark last season!), which is way too low for a guy with his speed. He's walking more and striking out less than ever before. His splits aren't indicative of anything. Try using that fact to your advantage and see if the Crawford owner in your league is frustrated enough to move him.

I'd also like to look at youngsters Evan Longoria, Akinori Iwamura, and BJ Upton. Unfortunately, for both of these players, there isn't a lot of data to be found. Iwamura, I think, has performed up to expectations. Longoria, though, has underachieved. That .245 batting average is going to come up by season's end, because his BABIP is low and he's shown remarkable plate discipline with a 10.9% walk rate. Upton, the most polished of the three, is having a stellar season. The power isn't there, but he's already stolen nearly as many bases as last season. He's a great option at second base, assuming you don't already own Chase Utley.

Teammate Carlos Pena, who has been in the league since 2001 (believe it or not), is hard to predict. I thought he was going too high in drafts, because there's no proof he could sustain his .282 batting average from last season. In his abbreviated season this year, his HR/FB ratio has fallen from an astronomical 30% last year to a low 16.4% in '08. That number should come up slightly if he can return in full health. I can't imagine a broken finger sabotaging Pena's entire season, and I may try to grab him as a spare part in a deal. It's worth a gamble that his owner will let the underperforming 1B go.

Tampa's success is due partially to their offense, but with Pena and Crawford underperforming as they are, there is plenty of room for growth here.