Midseason Position Rankings: Outfield
I expect this ranking to generate a whole bunch of dialogue - it was actually very difficult for me to do. There are so many players, it's easy to get overwhelmed, and tiers are pretty difficult to define. That being said, here's my attempt at ranking the outfielders from this point forward.
Tier 1
- Lance Berkman
- Carlos Lee
- Grady Sizemore
- Matt Holliday
- Ryan Braun
- Josh Hamilton
Did you know Berkman has 15 steals? The guy's 5-category production is at an all-time high. Lee continues to defy me and steal bases, and his position in Houston gives him a slight edge over Sizemore. The Cleveland star is looking at 30/30 with room for growth in batting average. Holliday falls because of the possibility he leaves Coors while Hamilton has the RBIs but injury concerns abound. Is Braun more valuable here or at third?
Tier 2
- Alfonso Soriano
- Ichiro Suzuki
- Carlos Beltran
- Pat Burrell
- Milton Bradley
- Adam Dunn
These guys are aggressively pushing the top tier. I can't call the injured Soriano a top tier - he won't drive in runs from the leadoff spot when he returns from his injuries, but Zach expects great production from him the rest of the year. Ichiro's lack of power limits him to 3-category value, and no matter how good his numbers, that isn't top tier material. Beltran's numbers don't make up for his weak average. Burrell hasn't stolen a single base this year, and with Milton Bradley, health is always a major concern. I begrudgingly admit that Dunn leads outfielders in HR, but you have to sacrifice SB and average in exchange. Still, he belongs here.
Tier 3
- Carl Crawford
- BJ Upton
- Corey Hart
- Nick Markakis
- Vladimir Guerrero
- Magglio Ordonez
- Jermaine Dye
- Manny Ramirez
- Jason Bay
- Carlos Quentin
- Matt Kemp
- Alex Rios
I know I don't have these guys ordered right. Am I wrong to wait this long for Crawford? His power still hasn't developed, and now his average stinks. Upton had a slightly better first half but Crawford is the better bet going forward. Hart could go 25/25, Markakis 30/20 with a better average. Vlad looks good here and is move-able if he gets in a slump. Kemp has more power than most high-SB players (root for more injuries in the LA outfield). Ordonez, Dye, Ramirez, and Bay are all veterans with good four-category production. No reason to believe in a major drop-off from any.
Tier 4
- Nate McClouth
- Curtis Granderson
- J.D. Drew
- Xavier Nady
- Rick Ankiel
- Ryan Ludwick
- David DeJesus
- Kosuke Fukudome
- Torii Hunter
- Bobby Abreu
- Chone Figgins
- Raul Ibanez
Granderson was an early pick for a reason - do you think he'll show it the rest of the way?Quentin has been good, Nady needs to get healthy to keep up that average. Rios has great steal numbers, and do you really think he'll only have seven homers this season? Ankiel and Ludwick are both having dream years from the Cards, and I believe they'll wake up before the season ends. DeJesus has some talent and it's finally showing through - Zach and I have liked him for years. Fukudome looks great because of a lot of home games and favorable splits. Hunter and Abreu are like Vlad and Mags, and neither really has any splits for their career. Expect solid second-half production. I think McLouth was somewhat of a flash-in-the-pan, but he's been good so far in July after a dismal June. I can't get excited about Figgins, but I guess there's no reason he can't steal bags the rest of the way. Ibanez would look great in Arizona or New York - that's the biggest reason he's up here.
Tier 5
- Jacoby Ellsbury
- Delmon Young
- Shane Victorino
- Randy Winn
- Nick Swisher
- Jose Guillen
- Jay Bruce
- Joey Votto
- Juan Rivera
- Hunter Pence
- Andre Ethier
- Aaron Rowand
Ellsbury will benefit a lot from Ortiz's return, but .260 really stinks (why not own Juan Pierre?). Delmon Young has the talent to be up a tier, but hasn't shown it this season. Victorino, well, I wish he scored more runs in that Phillies lineup. Winn is always forgotten and seems to provide decent stats. Swisher had a bad start but may be adjusting to Chicago. Guillen has hit well for Kansas City. It's hard to predict how the pair of young Reds will end up - my guess is they each have another hot streak before the season ends. Rivera, if he can break into the Angels lineup, could provide some value (or he could get traded). If Pence can bring his LD% closer to his career number, that should help with his .265 first half BA. With Ethier, you root for injury in Dodgertown. Rowand, always unspectacular, is own-able.
posted by Pete Abbate at
8:00 AM
4 Comments:
the only OF i own on one of my 4 teams that isn't on this list is hunter pence. i think he qualifies as a tier 5 OF.
So you'd rather have Jermaine Dye than Magglio Ordonez?
Dye 2007: 68 R, 28 HR, 78 RBI, 2 SB, .254 AVG, .317 OBP, 508 AB
Ordonez 2007: 117 R, 28 HR, 139 RBI, 4 SB, .363 AVG, .434 OBP, 595 AB
Also, McLouth is not a flash-in-the-pan, he is a legit Tier-2/3 multi-cat OF in the breakout age 27 year.
I like your other positional rankings but this OF one is all out of whack.
Annonymous, thanks for pointing out that I let Pence slip through the cracks. I've added him to tier 5.
Ian, you're right that Magglio belongs in the tier with Dye and Co. I looked more closely into the numbers and though Dye had the better first half, Magglio's numbers are right in line with his career while Dye's are mostly high.
As far as McLouth goes, his slugging percentage being 70 points above his career numbers could be a breakout season. But a strikeout percentage of 13.5%, when his career K % is 19.0&%, combined with a contact percentage of 89%, compared to career numbers of 85%, makes me think he's getting the bat on the ball a little more than he should be.
There are questions because he is a Pirate. Will Nady and Bay be there to drive him in the rest of the year? Will McCutchen come up and take some of his playing time, or will McCutchen come up and provide him a good source of RBI? I've moved him up next to Rios. He definitely isn't tier 2 material, but maybe I am too biased against him because I live in Pittsburgh and hate the Pirates. Feel free to tell me why he should be higher.
Other thoughts?
Well, a lower K rate and higher contact rate aren't statistics that point to luck but rather an indication of player development leading into a breakout season. Of course, this has been McClouth's breakout season, so I trust those numbers.
Nady should be traded (though the Pirates are angering the league by asking for too much) but Bay probably won't. McCutchen and Pearce should come up, but I imagine McClouth will stay in the lineup beyond the occasional regular day of rest.
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