Trade Deadline Summary

Well, I was planning on posting a Mythbusters segment here, but you guys will have to wait for the weekend (Spoiler: It's on whether a hitter changing leagues impacts his fantasy value). I figured it would be more timely to instead post a summary of the major trades, and provide some editorializing about how I think those deals will play out. If you disagree, let me know. As a side note, I cannot find a source for park factor splits for righties and lefties, which would help a great deal.

Mark Teixeira: Teixeira moves into the three-spot of a lineup where he'll be protected by Vladimir Guerrero, so it's safe to say he won't be pitched around. In Atlanta, the guys ahead of him had OBP's of .366, .346, and .466, that last one being Chipper Jones, while he will have Figgins (.383) and Howie Kendrick (.356) sitting ahead of him. Based on this, his ribbies rate should remain similar, though staying in Atlanta would have hurt with the loss of Jones. Tex has a career .245 average and .837 OPS at Angel Stadium, which is only slightly more challenging than Turner Field to hit a home run out of (home run park factors can be found here). Ultimately, he's still a tier two first basemen, but I personally think the change of league will negate the usual second half tear and he will continue to produce at an impressive, but first half, pace.

Ken Griffey Jr.: Griffey to U.S. Cellular would be huge, that is, if he were coming from Seattle. Still, U.S. Cellular sports the highest bandbox rating (1.386 home run park factor) of any stadium, while Great American had a respectable 1.162 mark. It's actually a similar difference to the the lowest hitter's park and the highest pitcher's park, so we could see some additional production. I don't know where Griffey will bat, but he shouldn't be ahead of Quentin, Thome, or Dye, so that sixth spot is a lot less productive than the three-spot he occupied in Cincinnati. Also, he may have to play centerfield, which he's admittedly worried about. Changes in position has led several good hitters to struggle, think Soriano at the beginning of last season, so hope that Griffey gets plenty of time DHing or playing first in place of Paul Konerko. The AL Central is devoid of great pitchers, so that's a plus. Still, we are talking about a lot of adjusting to do for a thirty-eight year old, though at rock bottom right now some improvement can be expected.

Manny Ramirez: Ramirez is an interesting character, isn't he? He loses Fenway, which was playing as a neutral park for homers this season, but moves into Dodgers Stadium, above and beyond the worst home run park of the year. He also loses Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Ortiz in place of Pierre, Kemp, and Martin--all fast guys but the Dodgers are a bit less disciplined at the plate. And I don't know who will be protecting the slugger, but Kent/Loney/Blake aren't as daunting as Drew/Youkilis/Lowell. I don't buy the argument that Scott Boras will motivate Manny so he can go out and earn big bucks, because he should have already been motivated by either the free agency or the $20 Million option. It's a lesser lineup, in a tougher park, in a pitcher's division. His production will decline.

Jason Bay: Pete pointed out that the loss of Bay is a shame because the left fielder actually enjoyed playing for the lowly Pirates. I'm happy for him, because Fenway is a better place to hit in a better lineup. Where he will bat I'm not sure, as some have assumed he will fit in right where Manny left and I don't think he's the second best hitter on the team when it comes to protected Big Papi. The guys ahead of him will be better than in Pittsburgh, if only because the Red Sox don't have a Freddy Sanchez. Having watched Bay play regularly, he shows the kind of poise that thrives under pressure, and will do fine under vicious Fenway fans en route to an productive last two months across the board.

The Rest: This post is already getting a bit long, but a few more names need mentioned. Pudge Rodriguez won't see much additional value in New York--Yankee Stadium is worse for homers and the lineups are both stacked. Instead, Brandon Inge sees the rise in value, and is worth adding in deep or two-catcher leagues. Andy LaRoche, who should be given the opportunity to be Pittsburgh's every day third basemen, is another guy to target in deep leagues based on three minor league seasons of above .900 OPS. I don't know much about Brandon Moss, but he will replace Bay in left field and if he shows any early spark he's worth riding out. Xavier Nady will have more value, but not enough to trade for him and he should have been owned already. If Craig Hansen is given the chance to close with Capps out and Damaso Marte traded, he will obviously have value. Casey Kotchman ends up in an ugly lineup without much ahead or behind him until Chipper returns, though he was already a marginal first basemen.