Trendspotting: Adam LaRoche, Justin Morneau

Okay, okay. I know this isn't groundbreaking news, but it's nearly the All-Star Break, so it's time to bring up a couple names with dramatic first/second half splits. These two first basemen top the charts - Morneau is the classic first-half player, while LaRoche is the ultimate second-half guy. Let's talk for a moment about each in 2008.

Adam LaRoche: The Pirate first baseman has finally found his stroke. As the Bucco announcers pointed out when he hit a scorcher down the first base-line that was just fair... "In April and May, those [types of hits] were going foul. Now that it's July, they are fair balls that drive in runs." Post-Break numbers, career: .893 OPS (compare to .756 in the first half), .296 average (.249 first half), and 46 HR (48 first half in 120 more games!!). Granted, he shouldn't take the place of an elite player on your roster. But if you're struggling to recover from a David Ortiz injury, or drafting Travis Hafner or Paul Konerko, you ought to take a chance on LaRoche. He's only owned in 14.4% of ESPN standard leagues - I'm sorry, but that's just silly. Grab him while you still can, and if you have an elite, look to make a move to upgrade a weakness (try to pick up Jake Peavy or Johan Santana to give yourself an ace for the stretch run, if their owners are looking to trade their underperforming studs). 

Justin Morneau: I'd love to say something new about Morneau, like "this is the year he's going to have a killer second half, so you should grab him from the nervous owner who wants to deal him," but the numbers unfortunately do not support such a sentiment. For those unfamiliar with his splits, Morneau's career OPS drops nearly a hundred points and his batting average drops 25 points after the break. His homers generally decrease as well, although he hasn't been hitting the ball out of the ballpark as well this year. I can pretty much guarantee that he'll have a similar letdown this season, not because of his past, but because his BABIP this year is 50 points above his career average (.345, as compared to a .296 career figure). His numbers so far, in a mediocre year, have been as much about good luck as anything else. This just isn't the year for the Minnesota slugger, and if you have him, I'd advise you to move him for whatever you can.