Trendspotting: Teixeira, Kotchman
I'm sure I don't have to tell you the big news of yesterday - Mark Teixeira and Casey Kotchman have both found new homes. So what can you expect the rest of the way, and long-term, from these two?
Mark Teixeira: What does the return to the AL West mean for the slugging first baseman? It's hard to say. One important point for keeper league players - this deal did not include an extension, so there are no guarantees he'll be an Angel beyond 2008. Going through his career stats, here's what I found. Teixeira had his career year in the AL West in 2005 (43 HR, 144 RBI, .301 avg), but wasn't elite in the years immediately before or after. He actually has a Lance Berkman-esque split so far, in which he plays better in odd-numbered years than even-numbered ones. As ESPN's Matthew Berry mentions, though, his pre- and post-Break splits show that he is a much better second-half player. He has the same number of home runs in 100 fewer games, his average is 20 points higher and his OPS is 70 points higher after the midpoint. And he really went on a tear with Atlanta after being traded there last year. In short, I have no reason to think he won't be very good in Los Angeles the rest of this season.
Casey Kotchman: Kotchman, in his brief career, has so far shown to be a second-half player. His average jumps 40 points and his OPS jumps nearly 200 points! In Atlanta, he will get regular playing time and should be a first base mainstay for a number of years. MLB.com points out that Kotchman has hit better at Angels Stadium than on the road, but I envision Atlanta batting him third and Chipper Jones (once healthy) and Brian McCann right behind him. He should see some pitches and continue to be a high-average, medium power player. Fantasy-wise, his lack of power at a crucial position makes him less useful than many options, but his power should continue to develop as he plays without battling mono or concussions as he has the past two years.



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