Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Adam Dunn's New Home

So I was looking over some fallout from the Adam Dunn trade to see how it would affect me the rest of the season, and I decided I'd throw up the info for everyone to enjoy. Let me know if you think I'm crazy.

His schedule for the rest of the season plays out with exactly 22 games remaining at home (which is now Chase Field) and 22 games on the road (including 3 at his former home, Great American Ballpark). Dunn's splits favor Great American; his OPS is 60 points higher and he has more HR and RBI at home than on the road.

The Cincy slugger, however, will probably suffer from the move to Chase Field, if his past numbers there are any indication. It's a small sample size, for sure, but in 16 games there he has an OPS under .600 and only 3 home runs. Is some of that a function of having to face the Arizona pitching staff, which has been consistently good? His owners certainly hope so.

His road match-ups look better. He has six games in Colorado, four in St. Louis and three in San Diego, in addition to his three game homecoming in Cincy; his OPS is near or above 1.000 in all four stadiums. Unfortunately, during the fantasy playoffs in September, he has an ugly 7 of 10 games against San Francisco, and his numbers in AT&T Park are about as bad as his numbers at Chase Field. Dunn may provide some help getting you to your fantasy championship, but in H2H leagues I wouldn't count on him to put you over the top. Hopefully, not facing the D-Backs pitching staff will help him beef up those career numbers at Chase Field for this season, and we'll keep our eyes on where the free agent-to-be may be heading at season's end.

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