Strategic Spot Starters: Strategy Edition

Yes, the title of this joke is a testament to my sense of humor rather than my poor titling skills. Ideally, this would have been a short post, but after further thought it's obvious that spot starting can make or break a week and deserves at least some serious contemplation. So lets get right to it, in a format that you might recognize...

Monday: You could make a very good argument that spot starting doesn't make sense on the first day of the week. That's true if you reserve the technique to playing catchup, which for some matchups is a fair reservation. How can you tell if your current week is one of those weeks?

• It doesn't need to be Friday before you know you've fallen back. Look at your matchups, and then look at your opponents. Sure, most league's don't let you look at future lineups of your opponent, but you should at least respect them enough to assume they won't miss a start. If they have a total of 12 GS and you're looking at 7, you're already playing catchup.
• Are their pitchers simply better than yours? A lot of researchers (such as yourself, as designated by simply reading a blog on your pastime) abide by the "offense first" rule of drafting. For some teams--like Pete's, just ask him--you simply have a ramshackle pitching core. If you're only prayer is to win quantitative stats such as W's and K's, you might as well throw out as many pitchers as possible.
• If you're facing a team you're most likely going to beat, don't bother. It's not worth the add nor the risk. It's easier to predict victories based on offense, so just compare your starting lineups.
• Then again, if the matchup looks like its going to be close, be prepared to add early. An early lead in wins and K's puts pressure on your opponent to make hasty decisions; just where you want him. And if it's an important matchup for your season, it's better to overplay than underplay. Winning almost every category could be devastating, while losing ERA and WHIP isn't going to cost you the league.

So what additions make sense? Guys that have a good chance to win are probably the best bets. Most guys with decent strikeout rates are owned unless their peripherals are so bad that they aren't worth the risk, neither to own or to stream. The Tim Wakefield's and Aaron Cook's of the world win this day, and the next.

Tuesday: Yes, Tuesday and Monday are pretty much the same deal, especially given the limited gameplay on Mondays. I think the only important distinction about Tuesday is that you cannot worry about the current score in H2H weekly matchups. I've been down 2-12 and eventually won 12-2, it's simply not the end of the world.

Wednesday and Thursday: Here is where everything comes together. I would add a pitcher out of desperation as soon as Wednesday, but would also continue to pressure my opponent if I had a lead. Wednesdays, and Thursdays for that matter, give you an opportunity to win or lose the week. Before this, you cannot win (but would struggle outright losing), while afterward it's going to take some brilliance to win while losing is probably a sunk cost. Consider everyone available and weigh their possible contributions.

Friday: Peripherals, except in very heated matchups, don't change much once the real weekend starts. Friday is probably your last chance to make a move on ERA and WHIP. Don't hesitate to steal a strong option from your opponent, as the gain is doubled by their lost opportunity. And if you've fallen behind, start streaming for W's and K's to salvage close to half the conventional pitching categories. Sure, New York at Detroit has an over-under combined score of twenty, but if you think Mike Mussina will give up seven to Verlander's eight, it's better than nothing.

Saturday and Sunday: If you've given up on peripherals, nothing changes. But if you have leads in most pitching categories, you have to watch your opponent. In the average week a pitching category was decided by three or four starts, and if they pick out three great ones on the weekend while you're ace chose an inopportune time to blow up, the tides have turned. On weekends and during important matchups, I never let my opponent start more than one additional pitcher each day than I am, they just have too much upside. That said, you have to have been the one to strike first, getting the ideal spot starter and leaving them to choose between John Lannan or Homer Bailey.