Trendspotting: David Ortiz, Alfonso Soriano

So I would like to discuss a couple of late first round picks and demonstrate why they are chosen in the first round. For many players, injuries mean a loss of value for the entire season. Even after an average player returns, he often becomes below average. Great players, however, show great performance even in seasons where they may not play 162 games. 

David Ortiz: Ortiz, the behemoth in the center of the Boston lineup, has definitely blossomed into a second-half hitter in his time in Boston. His OPS over the past four years is almost 100 points better after the All-Star Break, and his home run numbers are higher in two of the four even though he averages about 20 fewer post-Break games. The question of the moment, then, is not really whether he will hit, but whether hitting without Manny around will be a problem. Boston's lineup, however, has Drew, Bay, Youkilis and Lowell around Big Papi. None are prolific hitters, but all will get on base regularly, and force opponents to pitch to the big slugger. Expect very good numbers that will ease the pain of missing time for injury. 

Alfonso Soriano: Soriano, when healthy, can carry the Cubs to victory after victory. He's a game-changer and a player many were counting on for 30/30 or even 40/40 numbers this year. Unfortunately, he will not have amazing stats because of the time he missed with injury. Still, his post-Break numbers last year show that's when he hit for the most power. In 2006, his last year in Washington, his average and OPS were up substantially, and he stole 20 bases after the big Game. His BABIP is right on target, his LD% is up, and his contact rate is high. The big names hitting behind him don't hurt, either. Soriano may not reach 40/40 by season's end, but I still think 12/12 or even 15/15 is possible the rest of the way if he gets hot.