One of the things that bothers people most about baseball scouting is the unpredictability that comes with projections. Prospects pan out at a distressingly low rate, even top prospects like Homer Bailey (he still has a chance) or Bryan Bullington. Whereas in other sports, first-round draft picks have a good chance of becoming at the very minimum league-average players, in baseball first-round picks have a very low chance of even making the major leagues.

Let's take a look at some recent drafts to see exactly how many first-rounders have become at least average major leaguers. We will start with the 2000 draft. This draft was eight years ago, so any prospect that has not made the major leagues has a 0.1% chance of making it. Although ever once in a while you do get a Brad Ziegler or Chris Coste, but not often. Anyway, going down the list I crudely counted four players of the thirty to be at least average or above. They are Adrian Gonzalez (1st), Rocco Baldelli (6th), Chase Utley (15th), and Adam Wainwright (29th). Besides those four, the other 26 players have had embarrassingly bad major league stints, or have not been above embarrassingly low levels of the minor leagues. That is a 15% success rate. Not very good.

The 2001 draft did significantly better, producing 10 successful major leaguers for a 33% rate. And In 1999, nine players selected have become at least average for a 30% rate. Although my method has been extremely crude, I feel comfortable saying about 25-30% of first round picks pan out. That not only means that 8-9 of the first round picks of any given draft should become successful major leaguers, but also that every 3-4 years, one of a team's first-round selections should as well.

A team that has made it into the playoffs the past two years, has had fantastic success with first-round picks over the last some-odd years defying the "prospect odds". To be more specific, over a 6 year span from 1996-2002, the team drafted 5 successful major leaguers, four of which are important components of the team today.

Without further ado, the team is the Phillies of Philadelphia, and here are the players they selected:As you can see, the Phillies have enjoyed great success from their first-round selections over this six year period. Five of the players have become all-star caliber players, while the other two have at least played in the major leagues with some degree of success.

Pat Burrell carried the bulk of the offensive load for the Phillies in the beginning of the year when Ryan Howard was struggling. Although his bat cooled off as the season wore on, he still finished with a .250 average, 74 runs, 33 home runs, and 86 RBI.

Brett Myers had a 5.84 ERA through June 27th when the Phillies felt they had seen enough of him and sent him down to the minors for a month. After a month of reworking his game, Myers blasted back onto the big leagues going 7-4 with a 3.06 ERA. Over a stretch of eight consecutive starts from July 29 to September 5, Myers threw quality starts every time out.

Chase Utley has been an offensive force in the Phillies lineup for several years now, yet is also a player prone to having extreme hot/cold streaks. Regardless, when the streaks even out, Utley's end of season numbers always jump out for a second baseman and this year was no different. He batted .292, scored 113 times, hit 33 bombs, drove in 104 batters, and also tacked on 14 stolen bases.

Cole Hamels was by far the best starter for the Phillies this season and was also one of the best in the major leagues. He was a work-horse completing 227 innings, and also dominated batters with a 3.09 ERA and 196 strikeouts to just 53 walks.

So as you can see, drafting and developing first-round talent (not to forget Jimmy Rollins - 2nd round 1996 and Ryan Howard - 5th round 2001) has been monumental to the recent success of the Philadelphia Phillies franchise. When a first-round pick works out it is a great feeling--to have a team of homegrown talent like the Phillies do--but first-rounders can also cause the most distress.

First they take over a million dollars from your team in signing bonus. Then, they get promoted to higher levels of the organization, even if the promotion is not exactly deserved. And finally they continue to suck up playing time at Triple-A and hog a spot on the 40-man roster so the team loses John Santana in the Rule-4 Draft until five years later they sign with a team in Japan. Or, they get injured and always seem on the brink of breaking out, until getting injured again and blaming recent struggles on "nagging injuries". Or, they will finally get traded to another team (for next to nothing), where the "change of scenery" was all they needed to resurrect their career.

Whatever the case, it is usually not good.