Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Going Back to the Past: My Second Half Predictions

I hate to look back at this because it's ugly, but if I'm going to make predictions let's take a look at how I did (It's bad!). This was posted on July 19th.

Here are my top 10 predictions for what will happen in the second half of the 2008 Major League season.

  1. Josh Hamilton will finish the year with under 150 RBI. We have seen guys break 80-90 RBI before the break before, but Hack Wilson’s RBI record has never been seriously challenged. Hamilton will slow down plenty in the second half, and finish with 145 RBI, still an MVP season.

    How it worked out: Success! Not only did he only finish with 130 RBI, he didn't even end up leading the AL in runs batted in.

  2. Justin Verlander will win 17 games or more. After an atrocious start to the year, Verlander has started to turn it around and he has seven wins at the break, I am predicting a huge second half for the young fireballer, and he will win at least 10 games from here on out.

    How it worked out: Bomb! Verlander finished the year with a win, but he actually LOST 17 games instead of winning 17 games. I missed big on him this year, ouch!

  3. Francisco Liriano will be back in the majors before August, but he will not pitch well this year. Liriano has been lights out his last nine starts in the minor leagues, but there is a big difference between AAA and the major leagues. I think he will be fine in 2009 after an offseason of rest, but I say trying to rush his comeback will ruin his 2008 season.

    How it worked out: Not good. Liriano did come back in August, but he was 6-1 and only allowed three runs or more twice. Another miss for me.

  4. Kevin Kouzmanoff will hit 28+ homers. Kouz currently sits at 12, but he had a great second half last year, and I predict an even bigger one this season. He was fairly hot before the All-Star Break, and look for him to really breakout even though he plays in one of the biggest parks in the majors.

    How it worked out: Ok, so maybe 28 was shooting a little high. He did finish with 23 and had another pretty good second half.

  5. Cliff Lee will top out at 17 wins. I know what you are saying, 17 wins that is a great season. Well, Lee currently sits at 12. I see his stats really coming back to earth in August and September, and I don’t see him winning any more than five games between now and the end of the season.

    How it worked out: I bashed Lee all year long, and all he did was most likely go out and win the Cy Young Award, unless there is a total misvote. Lee obviously won well over 20 games and had one of the best seasons for a pitcher ever.

  6. Chipper Jones will not hit .400. Ok, so this one isn’t really going out on a limb since no one has hit .400 in a really long time. Jones currently sits at .376 and I say he finishes below .340. Chipper is having a great year, but he is having troubles with nagging injuries and I believe it will start to effect his hitting.

    How it worked out: No big surprise here that Chipper fell short of .400. He did have a good season at .364, but he was bitten by the injury bug again, and only was able to play 128 games.

  7. Johnathan Broxton will close games for the Dodgers from now on. And I don’t mean for the rest of 2008, I mean Takashi Saito’s time as Dodger closer is over. Broxton has been being groomed for this job for three years, and now that he has a good, long opportunity, he will step up and grab this role and hang on to it. Grab Broxton now if he wasn’t already picked up.

    How it worked out: I guess this one is still up in the air, but Broxton did finish with 14 saves and blew only four in the second half. I still think he opens the season as the closer next season, but that is still to be determined.

  8. Evan Longoria will hit 30 HRs and drive in over 100 runs. Longoria currently sits at 16 HRs and 53 RBI in the Rays first half of the year. He is a special kind of talent, and I can certainly see him doubling those numbers in the second half, even though the Rays have played more than half of their games. Longoria will be a star in this league for a long time to come.

    How it worked out: Longoria missed from August 7th to September 13th after being hit by a pitch. Even with missing nearly five weeks, Longoria still hit 27 HRs and 85 RBI. So, I am going to put this in the win column because he would have reached those totals if healthy.

  9. Joel Zumaya will be closing for the Tigers before the season ends. Manager Jim Leyland said he will limit the amount of work that Todd Jones takes on for the rest of the year, and that means that either Fernando Rodney or Joel Zumaya will get SOME opportunities to close games. When a guy is that big and throws that hard (100 mph+), you’ve got to believe he will be a successful closer, as long as he can stay healthy.

    How it worked out: Not so good. Zumaya did get a chance or two, but he blew every chance he got, and then he was injured, and then his season was over.....again. Until he shows any sort of consistency for at least a month, I am officially off the Zumaya bandwagon.

  10. Chris Carpenter will be given a chance to close games for the Cardinals. With Jason Isringhausen completely crapping out, and Ryan Franklin not doing a whole hell of a lot better, Tony LaRussa will resort to some desperate measures and put Carpenter in the bullpen when he returns. Carpenter has had an eventful rehab from his second Tommy John Surgery, and pitching only an inning at a time will get him back to STL faster.

    How it worked out: Wrongo! There were many rumors about Carpenter getting a chance to close, but after a start or two he was never able to make it back again. The Cards faded out of contention, and there was no reason to try to bring Carpenter back. So, this is another one in which health problems tripped me up.
So, those predictions didn't go well at all, but at least I had some fun with them. It was another baseball season to remember, between Josh Hamilton (great season and home run derby), the Tampa Bay Rays, another collapse by the Mets, the White Sox having to play two elimination games, the Yanks being out of the playoffs, Evan Longoria bursting on the scene, Pedroia-mania gripping Boston, the return of Brad Lidge, and the emergence of Tim Lincecum, and so many other great memories. Now we will see what memories we will have from the Postseason.

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