Thursday, October 9, 2008

Playing With Fire: B.J. Upton Edition

As you know, this column is called 'Playing With Fire,' for a reason, and that is to provide you with information on who the hottest players are in baseball. Although we have been without baseball since Monday night when the Red Sox advanced, there is one player in particular that has stood out this postseason, B.J. Upton.

Many baseball fans around the globe are familiar with Upton and his lack of hussle that got him benched three times this year with Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon. Some may know him for being the younger brother of Justin, the first overall pick in 2005, or maybe the fact that B.J. himself was the second overall pick in 2002.

'Bossman Junior' started his professional career in 2003 where he was a fielding disaster (56 errors), yet ranked the #21 best prospect in the country that year. In 2004 however, B.J. shot up the rankings to the #2 best overall prospect in the country according to Baseball America. His major league debut came in 2004 when he became the youngest player in Tampa Bay Devil Rays history just short of 20 years old.

At the time, B.J. was still playing shortstop and did so up until mid 2007 when he strained his left quadricep amist his stellar season. When he returned from his injury however, he soon became the Devil Rays starting center fielder. Since that time, he has manned that position for every game that he has started and will continue to do so in years to come, considering he is much better off defensively out there.

Enough of the background info on the Bossman Jr., it's time to get down to who he currently is. Sure many people don't like him, and many fantasy writers are always critical of his high batting-average-on-balls-in-play, however, Upton emerged as one of the top center fielders in the AL this year.

During the regular season he posted a .273 average with nine home runs, 67 RBIs, to go with a .383 on-base percentage, and a career high 44 stolen bases. After reading that basic stat line, many will criticize his average for being only .273, yet he was 7th in the AL in on-base percentage. Might I add, this year Upton also had a career low in errors with seven.

The one area of concern for Upton is the drop of power between 2007 and 2008. His 24 home runs in 2007 were certainly a suprise to his owners, considering he never hit more than 18 in the minor leagues. His power though, does appear to come in spurts.

In the ALDS against the White Sox, Upton managed to hit three home runs between games 3 and 4, which is more than he has ever hit in a two day span before. Looking back at this season, there were two times that he homered two times within a week, one time on back to back days, and the other couple was stretched across three days.

The big question about Upton though is where he should be drafted next year. It is important to note that he stole 44 bases this year, beacuse that is likely why he will go higher than expected. I expect Upton's average to go up a bit next year, especially if he hustles.

In mock drafts heading into this season, Upton was averaging the 19th pick on MockDraftCentral.com's ADP reports. Many experts will tell you that he was overdrafted though, in other words, drafted too high beacuse they predicted a decline in average due to his batting-average-on-balls-in-play (which was still .344 this year), but his steals rose tremendously. I expect Upton to go in the 3rd or 4th rounds of this years drafts but come April, all of that could change.

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