Saturday, November 15, 2008

The Beasts of Roto

Every player contributes differently to your fantasy team. Some players contribute positively in some aspects and negatively or neutral in others.

Think of some players like Adam Dunn, Ichiro Suzuki, and Alex Rodriguez. Dunn is a two category contributor, supplying value in the RBI and Home Run categories. Ichiro is a three category contributor, giving value in Runs, Stolen Bases and Batting Average. Then there are the Alex Rodriguez' of fantasy baseball; the five category contributors; the Beasts of Roto.

How often does a player put up impressive numbers in all five major rotisserie categories? That is the question I plan on answering in this article.

The first step is to determine the bench marks of what is impressive in each category. I decided on a .300 average, 100 Runs and RBI, 20 Stolen Bases, and 30 Home Runs. Disagree with me on this if you want, it is still my study.

After searching through the numbers of the past eight seasons, all the way back to 2000, the answer is not many players achieve this level of versatility. Here is the chart with the results:

Year   Beasts
2000 1
2001 1
2002 2
2003 0
2004 1
2005 2
2006 0
2007 2
2008 0

As you can see of the nine years four of them had no "beasts" and the most in one year was only two. There were some players who would get fit the criteria in four of the five categories, but fall just short in one. Alex Rodriguez actually had at least a .300 average, 100 Runs and RBI, and over 30 home runs but only18 steals--two short-- twice!

Interestingly enough Alex Rodriguez also made the list of "beasts" twice in his career also, both in 2005 and 2007. For those interested, here are the rest of the beasts listed after the year they accomplished this feat:

2000: Andruw Jones (look where he is now)
2001: Vladimir Guerrero (A-Rod and Cliff Floyd both missed it by two steals)
2002: Alfonso Soriano and Vlad Guerrero (again)
2003: nobody, but Gary Sheffield missed by two steals
2004: Bobby Abreu
2005: Alex Rodriguez and Jason Bay
2006: nobody, but Carlos Lee missed it by one steal!
2007: David Wright and Alex Rodriguez
2008: nobody, but Lance Berkman was one Home Run and two steals shy.

What's important to take away from this for your fantasy team is how rare and valuable these 5X5 roto studs are. That means most of the players you will target are either stand-outs in one category or competent across several. I don't think you should necessarily target either type of these players.

Certain categories are better suited for each type of player, based on the distribution of the data for that specific category. Either the distribution is equal or unequal. Categories that have equal distribution (seen well in graph form) are best suited for competent players. Conversely, those with uneven distribution favor one-category wonders.

In a future article we will take a look at the distribution of fantasy stats in 2008. Keep in mind that it will not mean that the distribution for that stat will be the same in 2009, though.

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