There was only one transaction of significance this week. Troy Glaus will head from Toronto to St. Louis in exchange for Scott Rolen. Both players are major injury risks as usual. In real life one might prefer Rolen, since he still plays near gold glove defense at 3rd base, while Glaus is a near liability. However, in the fantasy world I’ve got to go with Glaus. If he is healthy this guy is still a 30+ HR hitter. Rolen will move to a lineup where he will likely bat around five or six and will also likely see his numbers drop from moving to the big boy league (AL). On the other hand, Glaus’ numbers should go up batting behind Pujols and moving to the NL. I’d move Glaus slightly up your draft board. However, keep in mind he is still a major injury risk.

With that out of the way I will continue my sleepers. This week I will cover two outfielders, a starting pitcher and a closer. Outfielder number one is Wily Mo Pena. This guy has 40 HR power, possibly even more. You would think that hitting in Washington might lower that total. However, in his short stint there, he showed he has enough power to still take the ball for a ride. In just 133 AB in a Nationals uniform, he batted .296 (which he will not repeat) with 8 HR and 22 RBI. This was a pace of one HR for every 16 AB. A full season usually equals between 500-600 at bats, using last season’s pace that would leave Pena with between 31-38 HRs. He spent most of his time in Washington as the #6 hitter; however, I think he can continue to provide that type of power and I’d be surprised if he didn’t move up a spot in the lineup. If he can move up to the fifth spot he will be a good source of RBIs as well.

My second OF sleeper is Jeremy Hermida. This guy was a very highly touted prospect coming out of the minor leagues. He has battled injuries since his call up, but showed last season that he is ready for a break out. The kid hit 10 of his 18 HR in the second half of the season last year. He also hit .340 in the second half of the season. He was once considered a 5 tool type player; however, I do not believe he will steal 10 bases this upcoming season. I do, however, envision this guy with 25 HR, and a nice 90 RBI total this season. With Cabrera gone, Hermida should slide up the lineup, especially if he continues to produce.

Starting pitching is always iffy and fairly hard to predict. Dustin McGowan is my guy at this spot for this season. He had a very impressive second half last year. He improved his ERA by a full run in the second half, carrying a 3.67 ERA in the second half. He also had nearly a strikeout per inning. This guy was a great prospect coming out of their farm system who was said to be a possible #2 type starter. During the second half last year he showed that possibility is not as much a stretch as people would have thought before last season. He is likely to get 15 wins, close to a strike out per inning (probably ending up around 160-170), and an ERA under 4.00. One quick SP note, do not forget about Francisco Liriano, keep an eye out for news on him before the season, if he is ready for the start of the season he will be good. Make sure he is healthy, but he may be forgotten by most people because he didn’t play at all last season.

My closer sleeper is Carlos Marmol. Many people may not know that the Cubs are moving Ryan Dempster to the starting rotation, opening the closer spot for this dominating right hander (last year he carried a 1.43 ERA with 96 Ks in 69.1 IP). In his first full year as a closer I’d say that Marmol will regress a little bit. Pitching in the 9th is a lot different than pitching in the 8th. I’d say an ERA around 2.50 will be about where he ends up with above 30 Saves. As all closers, he will help you with your saves, but he will also help to lower ERA and raise strikeout totals.

Well that’s it for the sleepers. If you have any questions concerning which player has more value, or whether or not to make a trade, feel free to email me. I will respond as soon as possible.

Reader Questions:

I am in an American League only 4x4 league, we can keep 15 players. There is a $26 cap & we are allowed to keep up to 3 prospects or drop them & redraft prospects.

1.) Which 15 do you keep (not keeping 3 minor league guys)?

2.) Which prospect do you keep?

(P) Rich Harden (Oakland A’s) ($2.80/2007)
(P) Ian Kennedy (New York Yankees) ($2.00/2007)
(*)(P) C.J. Wilson (Texas Rangers) ($1.60/2007)
(*) (P) Ervin Santana (Anaheim Angels) ($1.50/2007)
(*) (P) John Garland (Anaheim Angels) ($1.50/2007)
(P) Cory Doyne (Baltimore Orioles) ($1.50/2007)
(*) (P) Phillip Hughes (New York Yankees) ($1.00/2007)
(*) (P) Joe Saunders (Anaheim Angels) (.10/2007)
(*) (P) John Danks (Chicago White Sox) (.10/2007)

(OF) Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle Mariners) ($4.00/2007)
(3B) Melvin Mora (Baltimore Orioles) ($2.00/2007)
(C) Mike Piazza (Oakland A’s) ($1.90/2007)
(*) (OF) J.D. Drew (Boston Red Sox) ($1.50/2007)
(S.S.) Elvis Andrus (Texas Rangers) ($1.10/2007)
(*) (3B) Chone Figgins (Anaheim Angels) ($1.10/2004-2008)
(*) (S.S) Jhonny Peralta (Cleveland Indians) ($1.10/2005-2008)
(*) (OF) Adam Lind (Toronto Blue Jays) ($1.00/2007)
(*) (2B) Howie Kendrick (Anaheim Angels) ($1.00/2006)
(*) (OF) Curtis Granderson (Detroit Tigers) ($1.00/2006)
(*) (3B) Joe Crede (Chicago White Sox) (.70/2005-2008)
(*) (OF) Travis Buck (Oakland A’s) (.60/2007)
(*) (OF) Jerry Owens (Chicago White Sox) (.60/2007)
(*) (OF) Nick Markakis (Baltimore Orioles) (.50/2006)
(*) (C) Kelly Shoppach (Cleveland Indians) (.20/2006)

(*) (3B) Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay Devil Rays) (MINORS)
(*) (3B) William Rowell (Baltimore Orioles) (MINORS)
(*) (S.S) Reid Brignac (Tampa Bay Devil Rays) (MINORS)


Thanks, Jay

Thanks for the question Jay. Here is my answer:

1. Phil Hughes
2. CJ Wilson
3. Jon Garland
4. Ichiro Suzuki
5. Chone Figgins
6. Howie Kendrick
7. Curtis Granderson
8. Nick Markakis
9. Jhonny Peralta
10. Travis Buck
11. Elvis Andrus
12. John Danks
13. Rich Harden
14. JD Drew
15. Adam Lind

Let me explain a little bit. Pitching wise you are hurting. Hughes, Danks and Garland are the only guys you have that are a sure thing to have a starting rotation spot. Santana and Saunders are for now competing for the final spot in the rotation in LA. Mussina is currently penciled in at the #5 spot in NYY. Kennedy is likely to be up in majors at some point, but for now he doesn’t have a job locked down. There are two reasons I kept Harden for you. One, you don’t enough guys I’d feel comfortable keeping on offense, leaving a spot for Harden, and because if Harden is healthy he is easily your best SP this season. Melvin Mora is old, his numbers are slipping big time and he is one of the more expensive guys for you. Crede is no lock to start at 3b this season as the Sox now love Fields and do not have left field open or him. In my opinion that leaves Crede on the outside looking in, waiting for a trade. That is why I kept Drew and Lind. Professional analysts who watched Lind in the minors love the guy and say he has a major league bat. He hasn’t shown that yet but he is still young and I believe he’ll be getting a real shot at a full time job this year. There is no way Drew can be that bad again. Most players have a not so great year their first year in Boston, but now in his second year there, Drew should be able to figure out how to use the Monster better, and batting in the fifth or sixth spot in this lineup should still return solid fantasy numbers especially in AL only.

Which minor leaguers should you keep? I’d probably keep all 3 depending on what is out there and where you will be drafting. Longoria will be playing in majors this year at 3B, likely starting the season in the majors. He is a must keep. Brignac will be in majors for 2009 unless something major goes wrong, and he will hit well. Those two I’d say are must keeps. Rowell has a major league type bat but is still a few years away. If you have one of the top picks in your draft id let him go and hope to land one of Price, Porcello, Moustakas, or Weiters, especially one of the pitchers in your case.

Hopefully this helped, any more questions let me know.