Introduction
Welcome to “Nerd-onomics,” a weekly Sabermetrics column to be run by me, Eric J. Seidman. Instead of jumping right into my first column I want to properly introduce myself. I want to explain who I am, what I have done, and what you will get from me. I have also included some brief explanations on certain statistics, formulas, or systems I created and like to use.
Who Am I?
My name is Eric J. Seidman and I am a screenwriter, sabermetrician, and magician from Philadelphia. At only twenty-two years old I have already won best screenplay at a film festival and had three scripts optioned by well-known producers. I was able to get Brett Ratner (director of Rush Hour, The Family Man, Red Dragon) to executive produce a short film of mine and I somehow got hired to write the story of Not Another Indian Movie.
I have worked my tail off to earn every inch of success, which serves as a testament to my meticulous work ethic and exponentially upgrading determination. The reason I decided to mention all of my movie success hinges on the fact that movies are not even my truest passion. That honor goes to baseball. As my bio states, by virtue of growing up in a sports-heavy household, I was the only second grader that immediately knew a fraction of 7/19 equates to a .368 batting average. If I was able to accomplish so much in a field that is not even my true passion, imagine what I could do if I applied my work ethic, determination, and knowledge to an area I love more than anything other than my girlfriend.
In addition to writing here at MLB Front Office I also write for MVN - Most Valuable Network and I will likely be contributing to The Hardball Times. At eHow.com I am the Magic & Performance Expert where I specialize in how-to tutorials revolving around magic tricks and performance. I am in the process of writing my first book on Sabermetrics, titled Bridging the Statistical Gap. The book will cover all of my research, theories, and statistics, and will be written in a style that even the least stat-savvy fan can understand. Now that we are formally introduced let’s get into what you, as fantasy players and readers, can expect from me.
What To Expect
My goal in writing here at MLB Front Office is to be your personal advisor. I am going to statistically show you ways to enhance your fantasy team as well as ways to find similar production levels from players you might not expect. I want you to have the best team, without over-spending, and be able to find quality stat-machines from a garbage bin or scrap heap.
My e-mail address is seidburns850@aol.com and I encourage you to e-mail me whenever you want. I answer every e-mail I receive, in very timely fashions, and am here to serve your fantasy baseball needs in any way I can. My phone number is 267-255-6777 and, while I would prefer e-mail, feel free to call, text, or leave a voice-mail.
Up until the regular season starts I will be writing every Monday about my statistics and evaluation tools, being sure to provide results and concrete evidence. I absolutely hate the statistical barometers that are being used today, since they do not tell us even half of the whole picture, and so I am going to show you better ways to determine quality and effectiveness. After the season gets underway my focus will shift to what is actually happening in the current season.
I am not going to tell you how to draft, who to draft, or when to draft him, as my esteemed colleagues here do an insanely tremendous job of that. What I will do, and you have my pledge here, is find quality production out of players that most will spit on or not even consider. For instance, according to my Starting Pitcher Effectiveness System, Dave Bush was almost just as effective as Carlos Zambrano in 2006 and 2007. In 2006, Zambrano had a +45 and Bush had a +43, and in 2007, Zambrano had a +35 while Bush had a +31. Zambrano gets drafted high, based on his reputation, and most do not even think about Bush even though in the last two years he provided just about equal production.
Seidman Starting Pitcher Effectiveness System
I have turned all of my research in this weighted points system into a handy-dandy PDF file for you to look at. To sum it up, though, the system takes into account a plethora of variables and truly levels the field of play between guys on good/bad teams, guys with/without run support, and guys injured/called up as opposed to just plain bad. I strongly suggest you read the PDF file because I am going to reference it as soon as next week when dissecting certain bargain bin pitchers who, over the last few years, have been much more effective than their barometers (W-L, ERA) would indicate.
The PDF file can be downloaded here.
AQS – Adjusted Quality Starts
One of the biggest parts of the SP Effectiveness System is a statistic I created called Adjusted Quality Starts. Normally, Quality Starts are defined as games in which a pitcher goes for at least six innings and gives up no more than three earned runs. Well, what if a pitcher goes eight or nine innings and gives up four runs? Isn’t that an equal, or better, ratio of earned runs to innings pitched? It is, but despite that, it would not be counted as a Quality Start.
The AQS extends the rule of 6+IP and 3 or less ER to also include games of 7.2+IP and 4 or less ER. Due to the increasing role of the bullpen and the severe drought of pitchers reaching the eighth inning, if you can go 7.2 IP or more, and give up no more than four runs you will earn an AQS.
This statistic will be extremely important for fantasy owners because it evaluates every single game of a season, not just the whole season. If we see that Pitcher A, in 3 games, went for 20 IP, 15 H, 8 ER, 8 BB, 20 K, and average it out, he would have a three-game average of 6.7 IP, 5 H, 2.7 ER, 2.7 BB, and 6.7 K. Those are great numbers, but they are only averages. Those numbers would indicate that the pitcher had three good starts. Sometimes that will be the case but not always. What if he went for nine innings and no earned runs in game one, but went only five or so innings surrendering four earned runs in games two and three? He would have the same averages even though he only had one good start and had two bad starts. In fantasy leagues, this is a big difference since a pitcher will not post his entire season’s statistics in one week of a head to head league. The AQS measures how often a pitcher was good, not necessarily how good he was in those good starts. Wouldn’t you rather have a guy who has a higher percentage of good starts as opposed to one with 50 % great starts and 50 % bad/ineffective starts?
Next Week
This week I merely wanted to introduce myself so that, in the future, you didn’t just randomly see some new guy posting baseball information. Now that you know who I am, what I like to do, and what I plan to do, let’s briefly discuss what you will get next Monday.
Next week we will discuss Starting Pitchers. I will be using my SP Effectiveness System as a major referencing point when discussing the starters so be sure to either know the system, or at least have it printed to understand what I am talking about. We are going to take a close look at the following areas –
1) SP’s with big reputations and stats that back them up
2) SP’s with big reputations and the stats do not back them up
3) SP’s with no real reputation but stats similar to those in #1
4) SP’s with no real reputation and stats that would not disagree
5) SP’s with bad reputations who are better than you think
Have a great week and, as always, feel free to e-mail me with questions, concerns, or anything along those lines. I’m glad to be onboard and hope I can be of some help to you.
My name is Eric J. Seidman and I am a screenwriter, sabermetrician, and magician from Philadelphia. At only twenty-two years old I have already won best screenplay at a film festival and had three scripts optioned by well-known producers. I was able to get Brett Ratner (director of Rush Hour, The Family Man, Red Dragon) to executive produce a short film of mine and I somehow got hired to write the story of Not Another Indian Movie.
I have worked my tail off to earn every inch of success, which serves as a testament to my meticulous work ethic and exponentially upgrading determination. The reason I decided to mention all of my movie success hinges on the fact that movies are not even my truest passion. That honor goes to baseball. As my bio states, by virtue of growing up in a sports-heavy household, I was the only second grader that immediately knew a fraction of 7/19 equates to a .368 batting average. If I was able to accomplish so much in a field that is not even my true passion, imagine what I could do if I applied my work ethic, determination, and knowledge to an area I love more than anything other than my girlfriend.
In addition to writing here at MLB Front Office I also write for MVN - Most Valuable Network and I will likely be contributing to The Hardball Times. At eHow.com I am the Magic & Performance Expert where I specialize in how-to tutorials revolving around magic tricks and performance. I am in the process of writing my first book on Sabermetrics, titled Bridging the Statistical Gap. The book will cover all of my research, theories, and statistics, and will be written in a style that even the least stat-savvy fan can understand. Now that we are formally introduced let’s get into what you, as fantasy players and readers, can expect from me.
My goal in writing here at MLB Front Office is to be your personal advisor. I am going to statistically show you ways to enhance your fantasy team as well as ways to find similar production levels from players you might not expect. I want you to have the best team, without over-spending, and be able to find quality stat-machines from a garbage bin or scrap heap.
My e-mail address is seidburns850@aol.com and I encourage you to e-mail me whenever you want. I answer every e-mail I receive, in very timely fashions, and am here to serve your fantasy baseball needs in any way I can. My phone number is 267-255-6777 and, while I would prefer e-mail, feel free to call, text, or leave a voice-mail.
Up until the regular season starts I will be writing every Monday about my statistics and evaluation tools, being sure to provide results and concrete evidence. I absolutely hate the statistical barometers that are being used today, since they do not tell us even half of the whole picture, and so I am going to show you better ways to determine quality and effectiveness. After the season gets underway my focus will shift to what is actually happening in the current season.
I am not going to tell you how to draft, who to draft, or when to draft him, as my esteemed colleagues here do an insanely tremendous job of that. What I will do, and you have my pledge here, is find quality production out of players that most will spit on or not even consider. For instance, according to my Starting Pitcher Effectiveness System, Dave Bush was almost just as effective as Carlos Zambrano in 2006 and 2007. In 2006, Zambrano had a +45 and Bush had a +43, and in 2007, Zambrano had a +35 while Bush had a +31. Zambrano gets drafted high, based on his reputation, and most do not even think about Bush even though in the last two years he provided just about equal production.
I have turned all of my research in this weighted points system into a handy-dandy PDF file for you to look at. To sum it up, though, the system takes into account a plethora of variables and truly levels the field of play between guys on good/bad teams, guys with/without run support, and guys injured/called up as opposed to just plain bad. I strongly suggest you read the PDF file because I am going to reference it as soon as next week when dissecting certain bargain bin pitchers who, over the last few years, have been much more effective than their barometers (W-L, ERA) would indicate.
The PDF file can be downloaded here.
One of the biggest parts of the SP Effectiveness System is a statistic I created called Adjusted Quality Starts. Normally, Quality Starts are defined as games in which a pitcher goes for at least six innings and gives up no more than three earned runs. Well, what if a pitcher goes eight or nine innings and gives up four runs? Isn’t that an equal, or better, ratio of earned runs to innings pitched? It is, but despite that, it would not be counted as a Quality Start.
The AQS extends the rule of 6+IP and 3 or less ER to also include games of 7.2+IP and 4 or less ER. Due to the increasing role of the bullpen and the severe drought of pitchers reaching the eighth inning, if you can go 7.2 IP or more, and give up no more than four runs you will earn an AQS.
This statistic will be extremely important for fantasy owners because it evaluates every single game of a season, not just the whole season. If we see that Pitcher A, in 3 games, went for 20 IP, 15 H, 8 ER, 8 BB, 20 K, and average it out, he would have a three-game average of 6.7 IP, 5 H, 2.7 ER, 2.7 BB, and 6.7 K. Those are great numbers, but they are only averages. Those numbers would indicate that the pitcher had three good starts. Sometimes that will be the case but not always. What if he went for nine innings and no earned runs in game one, but went only five or so innings surrendering four earned runs in games two and three? He would have the same averages even though he only had one good start and had two bad starts. In fantasy leagues, this is a big difference since a pitcher will not post his entire season’s statistics in one week of a head to head league. The AQS measures how often a pitcher was good, not necessarily how good he was in those good starts. Wouldn’t you rather have a guy who has a higher percentage of good starts as opposed to one with 50 % great starts and 50 % bad/ineffective starts?
This week I merely wanted to introduce myself so that, in the future, you didn’t just randomly see some new guy posting baseball information. Now that you know who I am, what I like to do, and what I plan to do, let’s briefly discuss what you will get next Monday.
Next week we will discuss Starting Pitchers. I will be using my SP Effectiveness System as a major referencing point when discussing the starters so be sure to either know the system, or at least have it printed to understand what I am talking about. We are going to take a close look at the following areas –
1) SP’s with big reputations and stats that back them up
2) SP’s with big reputations and the stats do not back them up
3) SP’s with no real reputation but stats similar to those in #1
4) SP’s with no real reputation and stats that would not disagree
5) SP’s with bad reputations who are better than you think
Have a great week and, as always, feel free to e-mail me with questions, concerns, or anything along those lines. I’m glad to be onboard and hope I can be of some help to you.
