Ask the Experts: Milwaukee Brewers

Here is another interview from our friends over at RotoProfessor. Hopefully you've had the opportunity to post over at his site, and if not its definitely worth checking out. He recently had the opportunity to pose five questions to Vic Feuerherd, a beat writer for the Wisconsin State Journal.

• Question 1: How will the position changes affect the production of Ryan Braun and Bill Hall?
  
• Vic Feuerherd: The goal is to improve the overall defense, which, in turn, the Brewers hope will help a starting pitching staff that struggled with, among other things, getting deep into games last season, especially in that July and August stretch when the Brewers lost their lead to the Chicago cubs in the Central Division. I expect that Braun will be oblivious to the change when he’s at bat. That’s just the kind of hitter he is. His poor fielding at third last season never hurt him at the plate. I suspect Hall will see some rejuvenation in his numbers now that he is back on some more familiar ground in the infield.
  

Question 2: How does Gallardo’s injury affect the rotation plans heading into 2008?

Vic Feuerherd: The current read is that Gallardo could be back from arthroscopic knee surgery sometime in April. He may have to miss three or so scheduled starts. But right now, GM Doug Melvin looks like a genius for not trading away any of his eight potential starters. My read is that this opens the door for the return of Chris Capuano to the rotation, at least for the early start of the season. My guess is that Dave Bush and Carlos Villanueva are slated for the final two spots in the five-man rotation behind Gallardo, Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan. Claudio Vargas and rookie left-hander Manny Parra are also looking for the opportunity. Parra will be waiting in the wings at Nashville if a Gallardo-like injury should occur to someone in the regular season. Guess this goes to prove the old adage that you can never have enough pitching.

• Question 3: How do you see Eric Gagne rebounding from his late season stint in Boston and the steroid accusations surrounding him?
  
• Vic Feuerherd: The Gagne accusations revolve around human growth hormone that he is alleged to have used in 2004, which if you look at his record, was the start of his physical breakdown after three great seasons as the Dodgers closer. If Gagne shows no signs of problems with the elbow and back problems that have plagued him the past few season, the Brewers believe that he will rebound to Gagne-like form as their designated closer. They believe that knowing his specific role as closer will help him, unlike in Boston late last season when he had to make the change to a set-up man. But it should be interesting to hear some of the comments directed at him by fans as he warms up in the Wrigley Field bullpen down the right-field line.
  

Question 4: Relatively speaking, who do you see having a better follow-up season, Prince Fielder (NL home run leader) or Cory Hart (24 HR/23 SB)?
Vic Feuerherd: If Prince Fielder has a “better” season than last year — a MVP like year if not for the Brewers late-season fall — then start preparing his plaque for Cooperstown. In fact, his numbers could be down compared to last season and he could still be as effective. Which brings us to Hart, who, for those who watched him every day last season, saw the maturation of an impact player. I’m not saying he is a future hall of famer, but his style of play reminds me a lot of Robin Yount, the two-time MVP and Brewers hall of famer. Like Yount, he is unassuming and just takes the field and plays the game. As good as Hart was offensively last year, and he proved he can hit at the top, middle or bottom of the lineup and still be as effective, he made even greaters strides on defense, showing that he can handle both right and center. I believe has the biggest upside — to use a cliche — of any regular position player.

• Question 5: Do you see Rickie Weeks finally breaking out like he showed possible after the All Star Break (11 HR and 16 SB)? Why or why not?
  
• Vic Feuerherd: Ask me in July. This is such a tough one because the Brewers want you to believe that the August-September Weeks is the player they drafted in the first round. They hold that it takes a year to recover from the wrist surgery Weeks underwent during the 2006 season, and his late season play came almost to the year after that surgery. Let’s put it this way. Of all the young core players on the Brewers, the largest heap of expectations has been place upon Weeks. That heap is still there. If he begins to approach those expectations, the Brewers are much more dangerous club.
  

February In Review

Well, we have reached the end of our first month up here at Rotonomics. I'd like to thank all of my readers for making this a very enjoyable experience. Engaging dialogue on both the threads here at the site and during mock drafts over at Mock Draft Central have been very rewarding, and hopefully you will continue to post on the site.

March is on the way, and while it seems Western Pennsylvania is confined a tundra existence, the fantasy baseball world is finally heating up. I wanted to take a quick moment to summarize a few things over the past month.

First, the most important posts on Rotonomics, in my opinion, are the Economic Editorials. Recently we went through the "archives" here and tagged what we could, so I encourage you to go back and check out some of the earlier ideas. All of them are important, though I'd particularly recommend "Satisfaction: Homing and Hearts", "Prisoner's Dilemma", and "Quantum (Baseball) Mechanics". 

In other parts of the blogsphere, Seamless Baseball offers a great draft guide as publicized here, in which Pete and myself helped conduct an expert mock draft. It is worth looking over and beats ESPN and Rotoworld for valuable fantasy insight. Another suggestion I wanted to make, in the realm of projections, is www.fangraphs.com. Hopefully many of you are familiar with this statistics site, but if not let it be your end all for fantasy baseball projections. It is infinitely more logical than the projections I had seen at ESPN.

So, thanks again, and good luck at your upcoming drafts

Seven Swingin' Septembers

I wanted to look at a few players who had great Septembers in 2007. While having a great September doesn't guarantee a great following season, it is something to consider with young players in particular who may have found their stride after a slow season.

Alfonso Soriano: For the life of me, I can't figure out why some experts are down on this guy. Granted, forty steals isn't likely to happen ever again, but a healthy season at Wrigley has got to do some good. He should be going very early in the second-round, though I would probably take him toward the end of the first since he and Holliday are a tier of their own.

• .320 AVG, 14 HR, 27 RBI, 1 SB

Ryan Braun: I wasn't hot on this guy when he was going at the very beginning of the second round, but if he's there any later, bite. While third base is deep this year, Braun will gain OF elibility and one could make a case that he's better than Sizemore, Beltran, or Guerrero.

• .308 AVG, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 2 SB

Curtis Granderson: This guy needs a bit more respect. Leading off the Tigers lineup, Granderson is looking for another 120+ run season. He stole 26 of 27 attempts, and with 23 HR and at age 26 he has some pop to his swing. I like him more than Rios.

• .348 AVG, 5 HR, 9 SB

Garrett Atkins: Atkins has made good use of his prime years, putting up great numbers but paling in comparison to the Wright's and A-Rod's out there. Last September he was a big part of the Rockies surge, and the following statline is impressive.

• .390 AVG, 5 HR, OPS of 1.010

Matt Kemp: Look at Kemp's profile picture on Yahoo! and you'll want him on your team. He looks like he'd take you to a bar and help bring back the ladies (that, if you weren't preoccupied with fantasy baseball, would be no challenge I'm sure). Despite the hype, he's still underrated come draft day and is a great 3rd OF.

• .383 AVG, OPS of .930, the power and speed will come this year

James Loney: Loney enters his second full season without concern of losing his spot to anyone. While a lot of experts think his power last season was a fluke, I'm not advertising a 30 HR threat. But what I do think is a mid-20's HR guy with a great average and good run and RBI contributions.

• .382 AVG, 9 HR, 32 RBI

Hank Blalock: Blalock has struggled with injuries for the past couple years but finally appeared healthy at the end of last season. He is going late in a lot of drafts, lasting seemingly forever in the Sports Blogger League. And he sported a mean September.

• .313 AVG, 5 HR, OPS of 1.063

This is by no means an all-inclusive list. It does show you some guys who seemed to perform either above their limits or at a limit we just hadn't seen before. All of the later guys are going a bit later though in my opinion.

Roster Magazine is Up!

Our friends at Seamless Baseball have been working hard for months on the definitive free fantasy baseball guide of 2008, and it's finally complete and ready for your viewing pleasure. Check it out here. Zach and I had the pleasure of participating in their mock draft, and you can check out our teams and read our analyses and strategies (I picked from the beginning of the first round, while Zach picked from the end). You can check out other bloggers' opinions of how to draft, some of the most detailed positional projections I've seen, and articles by some truly intelligent writers concerning all aspects of fantasy baseball. Please spend some time HERE as you prepare for your upcoming season.

Sports Blogger Draft Continued

On to the fourteenth round and beyond!

14th Round: Chad Billingsley, Dustin McGowan, Tim Hudson, B.J. Ryan, Aaron Roward, Dustin Pedroia, Ted Lilly, Khalil Greene, Jhonny Peralta, Placido Polanco Brad Penny, Chien-Ming Wang

• Beyond Billingsley, I think the starting pitchers here were taken almost in reverse order. Wang isn't a brilliant pitcher but he has respectable peripherals and grabs you wins, just as Penny does to a lesser extent. Lilly and Hudson enjoyed surprisingly good seasons last year, but not as good as Wang and Penny, so I don't necessarily agree with their earlier selection. McGowan is one of those sleepers gone wild, where everyone is on him even if his real value is going later than he should.

15th Round: Brian Wilson, Aaron Hill, Ian Snell, Jeremy Bonderman, Adam Wainwright, Josh Fields, Jered Weaver, Oliver Perez, Kevin Gregg, Carlos Marmol, Jeff Francis, Eric Gagne

• I was very happy to get Hill here as I waited as long as I could to grab a decent second basemen. Weaver and Bonderman could be real steals, while the closers here are all rather risky and interchangeable.

16th Round: Ken Griffey Jr., Rafael Betancourt, Dontrelle Willis, Tom Gorzelanny, Ryan Garko, Joba Chamberlain, Derek Lowe, Phil Hughes, Conor Jackson, Ivan Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, Raul Ibanez

• Two notes: First, Conor Jackson and Ryan Garko falling ended any hope of my getting a first basemen. Secondly, the team who took Betancourt (albeit rounds too early) seemed to read my mind most of the draft, taking several players I hoped to get. He also had a great team name - SteakGrowsOnDmitri. As a side note, Dmitri Young went undrafted.

17th Round: Justin Upton, Kelvim Escobar, Ryan Theriot, Rich Harden, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Orlando Hudson, Troy Percival, Michael Cuddyer, Gil Meche, Jonathon Broxton, Jeff Kent, Todd Jones

• Escobar was my steal of the draft - I think once he was so far up the draft board everyone forgot there are months after April. Jeff Kent and Cuddyer in this round I also loved.

18th Round: Adam LaRoche, J.D. Drew, Jose Guillen, Josh Willingham, Billy Butler, Stephen Drew, Nate McLouth, Kevin Youkilis, Joe Blanton, Joe Borowski, George Sherrill, C.J. Wilson

• I didn't expect J.D. Drew to go here, so was a bit disappointed. Butler and McLouth were also great OF fillers and all draft types should watch for them come draft day. Sherrill is a bit underrated in my opinion, becoming a closer and coming off a great season.

19th Round: Lastings Milledge, Frank Thomas, Casey Kotchman, Jay Bruce, Heath Bell, Luke Scott, Bengie Molina, Jamie Walker, A.J. Pierzynski, Jason Varitek, Ty Wigginton, Ramon Hernandez

• Got to praise Tim Dierkes from RotoAuthority for consecutive picks of McLouth and Luke Scott to fill an otherwise struggling outfield; failing to get either would have severly handicapped his team. Also, 19th round for 2B-eligible Wigginton? He deserves better.

20th Round: Randy Johnson, Brandon Lyon, Shaun Marcum, Ian Kennedy, Ryan Doumit, Matt Garza, Hank Blalock, Andy Pettitte, Mark Reynolds, Jason Kubel, Ronny Paulino, Cameron Maybin

• Best Pick: Randy Johnson. Worst: Cameron Maybin. No one should be too proud nor ashamed, as it was the first and last pick of the round...

21st Round: Jason Giambi, Greg Maddux, Zack Greinke, Mark Buehrle, Melky Cabrera, Moises Alou, Kurt Suzuki, Jack Cust, Hiroki Kuroda, Gary Mathews Jr., Andre Ethier, Troy Glaus

• Maddux over Greinke was hard for me, so I'll say Pete made me do it. I like Kuroda here, along with Melky. Good players that won't hurt your team.

22nd Round: Mike Cameron, Felix Pie, Bob Howry, Scott Rolen, Felipe Lopez, Rocco Baldelli, Bronson Arroyo, Freddy Sanchez, Wily Mo Pena, Jon Lester, Julio Lugo, Paul Lo Duca

• Sanchez, Mo Pena, and Lester came off my queue in a row right before I took Lugo, so I wasn't happy. Still, Lugo's post-All Star numbers are something to feel consoled about.

23rd Round: Carlos Ruiz, Chris Duncan, Barry Zito, Chuck James, Joaquin Benoit, Kerry Wood, Colby Rasmus, Scott Baker, Mark Ellis, John Buck, Kevin Slower, Josh Bard

24th Round: Richie Sexson, Pat Neshek, Chris Carpenter, Rajai Davis, Mark Teahen, Casey Blake, Bill Hall, Mike Napoli, Jeremy Accardo, Manny Parra, Hideki Okajima, Wandy Rodriguez

25th Round: Tony Pena, Jon Garland, Asdrubal Cabrera, Lyle Overbay, Austin Kearns, Chad Qualls, Luis Castillo, Tom Gordon, Shawn Hill, Randy Wolf, Yunel Escobar, Jeremy Guthrie

26th Round: Garret Anderson, Dioner Navarro, Coco Crisp, Matt Guerrier, Dave Bush, Scot Shields, Rick Ankiel, Jayson Nix, Yadier Molina, Pedro Feliz, Akinori Iwamura, Jon Rauch

Sports Blogger League: My Team

A lot of my fellow writers that participated in this league have posted their teams, and I encourage you to check their posts out. Since they have recommended the same action, I figured I'd comply and go ahead and post my fantastic roster...

C - Geovany Soto (10)

C - Ronny Paulino (20)

1B - Alex Gordon (11)

2B - Aaron Hill (15)

SS - Jose Reyes (1)

3B - Ryan Zimmerman (7)

CI - Evan Longoria (16)

MI - Julio Lugo (22)/ Akinori Iwamura (26)

OF - Vladimir Guerrero (2)

OF - Lance Berkman (3)

OF - Gary Sheffield (5)

OF - Willy Taveras (12)

OF - Chris Duncan (23)

Utility - Frank Thomas (19)

P - Josh Beckett (4), Daisuke Matsuzaka (9), Pedro Martinez (13), Brad Penny (14), Kelvim Escobar (17), Greg Maddux (21), John Garland (25)

Francisco Rodriguez (6), Mariano Rivera (8), George Sherrill (18), Hideki Okajima (24)

• Some analysis: I think the real value of preparing is to get value with late round picks. Of my picks after Longoria, I felt that I got great value. Kelvim Escobar, despite missing April, could be a real steal in the 17th round. My only change would have been drafting my fifth outfielder before Paulino, as he isn't that much better than the marginal catchers.
• I have an ongoing dialogue in my head of what I think about Gordon at first. Pete suggested I put Berkman at 1st and grab a FA outfielder. Is Longoria, who would be pushed out of the roster, going to be better than the best FA outfielder, who I'd consider as Xavier Nady. I'll let you decide, but I think Gordon is staying put for now.

Finally, I'd like to hear some opinions about this roster. How does it compare to the rosters over at Fantasy Hurler, RotoAuthory, Razzball, FakeTeams, and Seamless Baseball

P.S. - To the authors of other sites that participated, please comment if I missed your draft analysis and roster. I tried to limit the links to those authors who posted their lineups for comparison.

Trendspotting: Adam Dunn, Brian Roberts

I've been looking over the results of the latest Sports Blogger Draft (Zach participated but I did not as they were looking to diversify the number of blogs represented), as well as the Mock Draft Central Expert Draft, and Adam Dunn and Brian Roberts stand out as one-dimensional players who might be just a little out of place.

Adam Dunn: Zach already pointed out that he went way too early in the Sports Blogger Draft. Early in Round 3 is far too high for a guy that will destroy a team's batting average. The team had a solid foundation with Johan Santana and Mark Teixiera, and I understand the desire to secure a solid outfielder in a 5 OF league, but I just don't think it makes sense to take him there. Russell Martin would've made the most sense. My guess is the blogger wanted Granderson and panicked slightly after he was taken, but it wasn't a smart pick. Dunn hung around until Round 4 at Mock Draft Central, but I still would prefer Manny Ramirez or Nick Markakis that early. Cheap homeruns can be had late (Wily Mo Pena or JD Drew, Benji Molina in a 2 catcher league), but it's much more difficult to find a guy who can make up for a deficiency in batting average. If Dunn goes this high in your league, just stay away at all costs.

Brian Roberts: I mostly want to talk about the latest trade rumors that involve him going to the Chicago Cubs. If he gets to hit in front of Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez on a day-to-day basis, I think I'd be willing to take him in Dunn's spot in the Blogger Draft, early on in Round 3. He currently goes in an appropriate spot, at the end of Round 3/beginning of Round 4. I like pairing him with Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard, because he is guaranteed to steal you bases and score you runs. Interestingly, though, he was paired with Carl Crawford in both expert drafts. I'm not huge on this draft strategy, but if you make it, you'll be in an ideal trading position at midseason. You should have a huge lead in steals, and don't be afraid to pull the trigger to fill whatever need is still on the board. The more I think about this strategy, the more I like the look of a team with Crawford, Fielder, and Roberts at the core. Look for these three if you're at the back end of your draft.

Milwaukee Brewers

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL PIT CIN

Milwaukee is prepared to play with the Cubs this season for the crown in the National League Central. Ben Sheets, Eric Gagne, and Mike Cameron are all impending free agents with a lot to gain from a big (healthy?) season, and Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are bona fide stars. Here's how the team will look on Opening Day.

Lineup:

• 2B Rickie Weeks
• SS J.J. Hardy
• LF Ryan Braun
• 1B Prince Fielder
• RF Corey Hart
• 3B Bill Hall
• CF Mike Cameron (Gabe Gross)
• C Jason Kendall

Rotation:

• Ben Sheets
• Yovani Gallardo
• Jeff Suppan
• Carlos Villanueva
• Chris Capuano

Closer: Eric Gagne

Thoughts...

Their bullpen is really a logjam. It's hard to predict Gagne coming back and being untouchable after his implosion in Boston, but if you expect him to fail, how do you pick the backup closer? Derrick Turnbow is the logical choice, but off-season acquisitions Salomon Torres and David Riske could easily take over the role too. With this type of uncertainly, I'll probably just avoid all of them in my drafts.

ESPN tags Dave Bush as the team's sleeper, but I don't buy it. I suppose he will get starts this year, assuming Sheets will get hurt as usual, but I can't bring myself to believe Bush will do much of anything useful from a fantasy perspective. Gallardo, on the other hand, is a great snag in keeper leagues this year. I can't believe a knee injury is a sign of any future substantial injuries, and he's going to be an excellent pitcher in this league for many years.

Corey Hart is another player who could be excellent this year. ESPN has him hanging around until round 8 in a 10 team league, and I like the 25/25 potential. I'm not predicting this will happen, but wouldn't it be fantastic if Hardy struggled and Hart got moved in front of Fielder and Braun? He wouldn't stop scoring runs the entire season. Even in the six hole, he's a five category producer who looks primed to continue his growth this season.

Rickie Weeks has potential similar to Hart's. He could be the poor man's Brandon Phillips, ten rounds later, come draft day, if you are willing to risk his wrist. Considering the lack of depth at second base, that's a risk I'd be readily willing to take.

I have trouble deciding whether Ryan Braun is more valuable in the outfield or at third base. I'd say he probably looks better at third, but then again, it's easy to pair him with Cabrera at the end of round one and the beginning of round two. He's among the elite at either position, and will be a fantasy stud for years to come (especially if he continues to snag 15-20 bases per season in addition to his prodigious power numbers). 

It hurts Zach to read this, I'm sure, but the Brewers have a good mix of talented youth and motivated veterans. From a baseball perspective, they'll be good, and from a fantasy perspective, they'll be better. Any Brewer not named Kendall is draftable at some point in 2008.

Rankings: Second Basemen

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Relief Pitchers, Catchers, First Base, Shortstops, Third Base, Outfielders

Well, here we are, the last of the position rankings. I used these rankings in my drafts this year, and will continue to do so since they have been largely successful. Second base is considered a deep position this year, and I can't say I disagree. While it is top-heavy, much like shortstop and third base, it is so top heavy that at least half the players in your league will end up with someone with holes in their roto game. Because of this, I consider 2nd base to be an ideal position to assess needs and strengths in the later rounds, and will talk about those "plugs" near the end.

Tier 1: Chase Utley

Tier 2: Brandon Phillips, B.J. Upton

Tier 3: Brian Roberts, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler

Tier 4: Howie Kendrick, Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla

Tier 5: Aaron Hill, Dustin Pedroia, Kelly Johnson, Ty Wigginton, Jeff Kent, Placido Polanco, Kaz Matsui, Akinori Iwamura, Orlando Hudson, Freddy Sanchez

Now, Utley is a stud and while I won't dedicate an entire bullet to him I will state that I expect the difference between him and Phillips/Upton will be worth the round difference. If you can get Utley late, you should jump on him--anywhere after seventh pick he's your man. Upton and Phillips are interchangeable, though I give the nod to Phillips due to the hitter-friendly park (both lineups are improved). In a ten-team Yahoo! league, I'd say it's worth grabbing those Tier 3 2B if you have your ace pitcher, a cornerstone to your offense (first three picks say), and a shortstop. Your better off with Tulowitski over Roberts or Furcal over Kinsler, considering the relative depth of second base verses shortstop.

Finally, lets consider "patching" with a late round pick. These guys will contribute heavily to their category, but probably not much else...

Power: Dan Uggla (obviously not that late on this one), Ty Wigginton

Speed: Kaz Matsui, Luis Castillo

Average: Howie Kendrick (not too late with this one either), Placido Polanco

Sports Bloggers Draft Continued

After the amount of depth in my previous post, and considering this is a 26-round affair, I'd like to begin to move a little faster with a little more brevity. So without further adieu, Rounds 6-13.

6th Round: Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Rafael Furcal, Ian Kinsler, Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan, Hunter Pence, Aaron Harang, Francisco Rodriguez, Scott Kazmir

• Kazmir at the end of the sixth was probably the best pick, giving the owner a powerful one-two punch of Peavy and Kazmir. I was surprised that Nathan and Rodriguez made it most of the way through the round-this is important to note for those worrying whether they have to jump on a closer as soon as the first of the big four falls off the board. I think Adrian Gonzalez went a little early here, only because he likely would have lasted another round (or so it seemed during the draft). 

7th Round: Chris Young, Ryan Zimmerman, Felix Hernandez, Torii Hunter, Jorge Posada, Roy Oswalt, Michael Young, Takashi Saito, Brad Hawpe, Shane Victorino, Delmon Young, Miguel Tejada

• Drafts are won in the middle rounds because high-risk, high-reward players fall now. Zimmerman, King Felix, Delmon Young, and Miguel Tejada all define this characteristic. I'm not a huge fan of Posada this early (only one round after McCann) since a lot of people wait on catchers until that third tier is broken into, and no one likes to be the one to do it.

8th Round: John Smoltz, Carlos Zambrano, J.J. Hardy, Adrian Beltre, Rich Hill, Nick Swisher, Matt Kemp, Jeff Francoeur, Jose Valverde, Paul Konerko, Mariano Rivera, Rickie Weeks

• I was shocked that Swisher and Konerko went in this round, and would never really get a legitimate first baseman because of it. I agree that both were due though. Hardy seems like the most questionable pick of this bunch, while I really like Zambrano in the 8th round.

9th Round: Tim Lincecum, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Vernon Wells, Howie Kendrick, Juan Pierre, Javier Vazquez, Andruw Jones, James Shields, Roy Halladay, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jim Thome, Jason Bay

• Last years rejects were featured in round nine, with freefallers Andruw Jones and Jason Bay sliding at least six rounds from their 2007 ADP. Halladay hurts unless your league counts complete games, since he can no longer provide K's and a ton of wins while his peripherals showed signs of deteriorating. I think Jones and Bay were the best picks of this round, while Pierre and Ellsbury were questionable.

10th Round: Hideki Matsui, Billy Wagner, Pat Burrell, Matt Cain, Edgar Renteria, Brett Myers, Todd Helton, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Liriano, Jermaine Dye, Geovany Soto, James Loney

• Not much to say here. Wagner was the best pick, while Dye has seen his best days pass. I think the interesting thing about Liriano is that, while he could be a bust, he could also be the best pick in the draft. While it may hurt to lose your tenth round pick, it might hurt more to play against the team that drafted Liriano when you were too worried. And right now, it looks like Liriano will at worst be a tenth-round pitcher.

11th Round: Yovani Gallardo, Alex Gordon, Jeremy Hermida, J.R. Towles, A.J. Burnett, Bobby Jenks, Fausto Carmona, Rafael Soriano, Orlando Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Edwin Encarnacion, Dan Uggla

• This was a round of reaches. Gordon, Hermida, Hamilton, Towles, Soriano, and Encarnacion were all taken before being on the big board of all players, and I like all of the picks. At some point in the draft you have to take risks. No real loser here, though the Gallardo taker is going to have to deal with a shortened April and possibly a shortened season if the Brewers shut the young hurler down while the Cubs take the division by storm.

12th Round: Trevor Hoffman, Huston Street, Joakim Soria, Kosuke Fukudome, John Maine, Brad Lidge, Matt Capps, Johnny Damon, Ben Sheets, Kenji Johjima, Willy Taveras, Michael Bourn

• I count five closers in seven picks, which was bizarre. For those of you who haven't heard yet, Lidge is undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery again. Also, I'm shying away from Trevor Hoffman since at some point batters will realize they are facing a change-up and another change-up. Still, Fukudome was the strangest pick since he won't offer much in a league not including OBP and I have to commend the taker of Johjima to wait around after I took Soto what appears to be a round too soon.

13th Round: Adam Jones, Pedro Martinez, Manny Corpas, Mike Lowell, Chad Cordero, Kelly Johnson, Jason Isringhausen, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Carlos Delgado, Kazuo Matsui, Joey Votto, Clay Buchholz

• Adam Jones and Michael Bourn at the end of 12 was a strange decision in my opinion, since both would have been around later. Still, this was a round of taking crushes, as Johnson, Matsui, and Votto were all reached for. I think that, when tiers are considered, these picks weren't the best when they were taken. Pedro was crush pick, though I needed another pitcher and most of the legitimate guys were gone.

So there they are. Please post comments, and come back next time to see how long experts let Kelvim Escobar fall even when they have DH spots and he's likely to miss only a month.

• My team so far: Jose Reyes, Vladimir Guerrero, Lance Berkman, Josh Beckett, Gary Sheffield, Francisco Rodriguez, Ryan Zimmerman, Mariano Rivera, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Geovany Soto, Alex Gordon, Willy Taveras, Pedro Martinez

Expert (Not Mock) Draft: Sports Bloggers

Hey everyone, thanks again for helping me in the other thread, the draft went extremely well and I'm happy with my team. Check out "The Fifth Pick" for a run-down of my picks, but for now I wanted to do a run-through of the actual league. It was a 26-round affair, so I'll look at five rounds at a time with commentary. For the record, I drafted from the second pick.

1st Round: Alex Rodriguez, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Johan Santana, Jimmy Rollins, Matt Holliday, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, David Ortiz, Albert Pujols

• I don't know what's more surprising, Ortiz in the first round or Pujols for all intensive purposes in the second. The first four picks I agree with, and Santana came up in our discussion of the fifth pick. I expect Utley to fall in a lot of drafts since his numbers aren't as gaudy as his roundmates, though compared to his position he's a steal at ninth. Howard belongs in the first round.

2nd Round: Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano, Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Braun, Carlos Lee, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, Ichiro Suzuki, Vladimir Guerrero, B.J. Upton

• Soriano made up for the Ortiz reach in the first round, and I think is vastly underrated, especially by experts. While I like Phillips, I don't like him that early and ahead of guys like Lee, Beltran, and Braun. Interestingly, Fielder was taken by the same team that took Howard. I like this in such a deep league, but in your standard 10-team Yahoo! league I think other category needs should be addressed instead. Carlos Lee is underrated by the general public but was given his due in this draft with a mid-second round pick. 

3rd Round: Jake Peavy, Lance Berkman, Alex Rios, Curtis Granderson, Adam Dunn, Russell Martin, Magglio Ordonez, Justin Morneau, Victor Martinez, Aramis Ramirez, Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard

• Peavy fell much further in this real league than in the mock draft with the same writers, and I agree. While he's likely to put up great numbers, he isn't that much more likely than guys like Bedard and Webb. Russell Martin and Victor Martinez are going to go in the third round, and I just can't do it--a team with one outfielder and one corner infielder has too many needs heading into the middle rounds. I like Morneau less than D. Lee and dislike the pick there, while Ramirez is a nice pick at the end of the third round. Lastly, Dunn and Ordonez simply don't constitute a pick in this round.

4th Round: Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins, Travis Hafner, Nick Markakis, C.C. Sabathia, Bobby Abreu, Derrek Lee, Garrett Atkins, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Josh Beckett, Troy Tulowitski

• Lee, Atkins, and Ramirez are all undervalued this year, and those teams got great value in the fourth round. C.C. Sabathia is underrated considering it being a walk year and his Cy Young Award; I consider taking him fourth after Johan, Peavy, and Webb. I don't think Jeter is worth much, but at the end of the fourth round we held off as long as possible. I consider Beckett overrated, but slightly better than Cole Hamels, the next best pitcher available.

5th Round: Corey Hart, Gary Sheffield, John Lackey, Robinson Cano, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander, Eric Byrnes, Chris B. Young, J.J. Putz, Carlos Guillen, Jonathon Papelbon

• The closer run began in the fifth round, which I find reasonable compared to Mock Draft Central trials. Sheffield is worth much more with OF eligibility, and for those wondering, Yahoo! does provide the cornerstone of the Tigers' offense with the blessing. Guillen will be Jeter of the past with a little more power and a little less speed, and is a good SS to count on. The starting pitchers fell interestingly, as I like Hamels and Verlander a bit more than Lackey and Haren as we get closer to the season.

So concludes the first five rounds. Any thoughts would be appreciated, and any questions I will gladly answer. There is a lot of data here, but I tried to keep my analysis brief.

Cincinnati Reds

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL PIT

Cincinnati is the home of the home run. For many years, Coors Field and thin Rocky Mountain Air made Colorado the premier power-hitting team in the game, but Great American Ballpark and the sluggers in Cincy have taken over the title. With that in mind, look to draft mostly hitters, rather than pitchers, from this team.

Lineup:

• CF Ryan Freel (Jay Bruce)
• SS Alex Gonzalez
• RF Ken Griffey, Jr.
• 2B Brandon Phillips
• LF Adam Dunn
• 3B Edwin Encarnacion
• 1B Joey Votto
• C David Ross

Rotation:

• Aaron Harang
• Bronson Arroyo
• Matt Belisle
• Homer Bailey
• Edinson Volquez

Closer: Francisco Cordero

Thoughts...

It's not clear who will play CF, Ryan Freel or Jay Bruce. Whomever starts will be very valuable in fantasy; Freel will give you steals and runs as long as he stays healthy, while Bruce (the number one ranked prospect in baseball this year) will give more power. If Bruce wins the job, he probably won't hit from the leadoff spot, but it's unclear how the lineup will be reshuffled. Keep in mind that Dusty Baker is partial to playing veterans when drafting Bruce. 

Actually, between Griffey and Freel, the chances of a Reds outfielder getting hurt are 99%. So draft Bruce, but know he might not be starting on Opening Day. Either way, he'll be a force sooner rather than later.

Joey Votto has become a popular fantasy name, and after a big September last year it's completely justified. The Dusty Factor still looms over Votto, though, as the Reds exercised the option on Scott Hatteberg. Ideally, Votto will win this job outright, but watch this situation in spring training if you've got your eye on Votto at first.

Aaron Harang is Mr. Reliable, a trait that is vastly underestimated in fantasy baseball, in my opinion. He has 200 strikeouts and an ERA under 4.00 in back-to-back seasons, and even though his home games are in a terrible pitcher's park, he does get to face the Pirates and Cardinals regularly. Similarly, Bronson Arroyo is underrated going into this season. He's no stud, but he's barely being drafted, and I think you can count on him for 150 strikeouts and an ERA around 4.00. He's certainly good enough to get drafted late to round out a staff. Homer Bailey could provide some statistics, but it's more difficult for me to predict that he'll be reliable, especially in such an unfriendly environment.

Brandon Phillips continues to climb closer to the first round, and with good reason. 30/30/100/100 at a position where there's not a lot of depth is outstanding. Adam Dunn is a little one-dimensional for my taste, but he's hit exactly 40 homeruns in 3 straight seasons. You can't buy that kind of consistency, so you just have to hope he doesn't destroy your team's average. Junior Griffey played a whole season but faded badly as the year went on. He's definitely productive when healthy, but his age shows as the season wears on. 

The Reds definitely provide some valuable names in fantasy. They've got the all-around producers and the one-dimensional players, but each type can be an important part of a championship fantasy team. 

Check out the Ask the Experts post for more information on Cincinnati in the upcoming season.

Ask the Experts: Cincinnati Reds

Our friends over at RotoProfessor recent had the opportunity to conduct a small interview of John Fay, who provides coverage of the Cincinnati Reds in the Cincinnati Enquirer. Check out the interview.

Question1: What are the chances that Jay Bruce wins the CF job out of Spring Training? What type of impact do you anticipate him making in 2008?
John Fay: I think the chances are very good. But that’s just me talking. The reason I think so is Bruce went from Single-A to Triple-A last year and his stats never dropped off. He was in camp early. He looks good. And he realizes he needs a good, maybe great, spring to make the team.

• Question 2: Who do you think will win the 1B job out of Spring Training, Joey Votto or Scott Hatteberg? How successful do you see the winner being?
  
• John Fay: I’d make Votto the favorite at this point. He had a very good September –. 321, 4 homers, 17 RBI in 24 games. I think he gives the Reds more at this point. But Hatteberg is a good back-up plan. 
  

Question 3: How do you see Edwin Encarnacion following up on a solid 2007 season?
John Fay: I think this could be a breakout year. He’s improved his defense. His bat was good after a slow start last year. He has a knack for driving in runs. He hit .360 with runners in scoring position last year. If he struggles, the Reds are in trouble because they need right-handed bat, in addition to Brandon Phillips, to balance the lineup.

• Question 4: Do you see Francisco Cordero living up to the huge contract he signed? Why or why not? 
  
• John Fay: I don’t know. He’s going to have to very good to do that. I think the key to bullpen in general is how the set-up guys do in getting the ball to Cordero. 
  

Question 5: How do you see the starting rotation being comprised in 2008? Which young pitcher do you see making the biggest impact?
John Fay: Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Matt Belisle will be in. One of the good things from the Reds’ standpoint is they have a lot of young guys in the mix for the other two spots. My guess at this point is Jeremy Affeldt and Homer Bailey win them. But Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto could pitch their way into the mix. Bailey was very good the second time around last year. He still has the high upside. If I had to pick one guy to have the biggest impact, it would be him.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU STL

Hope springs eternal in Pittsburgh, at least until the Steelers start Training Camp in August. Will this be the year everything is different? Well, it seems to be right now. Nobody in Pittsburgh is that enthusiastic about the team for the first time in their 15-year streak of misery and woe. I'm not here to say there's reason to be excited, but... fantasy-wise... there might be a reason to get excited.

Lineup:

• CF Nate McLouth (Nyjer Morgan)
• SS Jack Wilson
• 2B Freddy Sanchez
• 1B Adam LaRoche
• LF Jason Bay
• RF Xavier Nady
• 3B Jose Bautista
• C Ronny Paulino

Rotation: 

• Tom Gorzelanny
• Ian Snell
• Paul Maholm
• Matt Morris
• Zach Duke

Closer: Matt Capps

Thoughts...

This outfield provides some intriguing players. The winner of the Morgan/McLouth battle for center field (probably McLouth as of today) will definitely provide some speed on the basepaths. Neither of these two is being drafted, so you can afford to wait for them. My thoughts on Bay have already been documented; he has five-tool potential and is a good pickup if his ADP falls a bit. Nady can give you 20-25 HR power also. Finally, Ryan Doumit will start in the outfield if (when) Bay or Nady is traded. He has no relevance there but maintains catcher eligibility in most leagues - think of Josh Willingham of Florida two years ago. Mediocre outfield numbers look great if you don't have Russell Martin behind the plate.

Here are some numbers from 2005: 8-2, 1.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.2 K/9 innings. If you know your baseball history, you'll recognize that this is Zach Duke's stat line after a midseason call up. Check out this blast from the past from the archives of RotoAuthority. Why has Duke struggled so much since his rookie year? Many theories exist, but former pitching coach Jim Colborn "tweaked" his mechanics and he's been terrible ever since. He's been reunited with his coach from '05, Jeff Andrews, and I'm not saying you should draft him in the first round or at all, but I do think he's got some potential and is worth watching this year.

There are three pitchers worth owning right now: Capps, Snell, and Gorzelanny, in that order. Capps has a stranglehold on the closer's job, and while he won't get you 40 saves, he should give what Mike Gonzalez did two years ago: near perfection in the ninth with very good peripherals. Snell's ERA and WHIP both fell substantially last year, while his strikeout numbers went up slightly. Gorzo needs to lower the WHIP a little to be truly worth owning, but I don't mind having him to round out my rotation. He's young and definitely could improve this season.

The team added nothing to a roster that went 68-94; they traded Salomon Torres from the bullpen and allowed Josh Phelps, who had a strong showing off the bench, to leave in free agency. Still, there might be some reason for excitement. Keep an eye on the outfield, as there are many guys there who could provide different types of value there. The Pirates as my hometown team, and as pathetic as they have been, I can't help but say it: Let's Go Bucs!

Sleepers: The Hurlers

There can be a lot of benefits to waiting awhile to grab starting pitching, and while I like to draft at least one true ace, knowing your sleepers can lead to strong middle rounds. The following pitchers are going undrafted and I feel have the chance to produce 5th or 6th starter numbers by fantasy standards.

5th Starter potential: Randy Johnson (217), Zach Greinke (233), Jon Lester (241), Hiroki Kuroda (262), John Garland (304), Shawn Hill (316)

6th Starter potential: Matt Garza (229), Gil Meche (234), Tom Glavine (247), Greg Maddux (282), Micah Owings (335), Ervin Santana (344), Mike Mussina (375)

• There's not that much difference between 5th and 6th Starter potential, and I would say both are only a fraction above marginal level. To use terminology brandished on the site, these are all on the same tier, as neither is significantly different by quantum baseball mechanics.

Relief Pitchers: Jonathan Broxton (218), George Sherrill (222), Hideki Okajima (240), Rafael Betancourt (267), Pat Neshek (277), Kerry Wood (283)

• These guys should all be owned heading into next season. Broxton and Okajima normally grab a handful of saves even if their team's closer stays healthy, though I consider both closers injury risks. Sherrill is his teams closer, and should be drafted. Betancourt and Wood will probably win a closing job at some point, while Neshek will be great after (spoiler alert) the Twins trade Nathan at the deadline.

The Fifth Pick

I'd like to start by thanking all my readers out there. This blog has only been up for a little over two weeks now, and the feedback has all been great. I've run into many of you on Mock Draft Central, and as a blogger who randomly meets a fan of his site such occasions are rewarding. Another benefit of the blog has been an invitation to an "Expert League" with several other bloggers, and the draft is this Sunday.

What I'd like to ask of you is some arguments for who I should take with the fifth overall pick in the draft. The league is a little different than the format we usually suggest here (C C 1B 2B SS 3B MI CI OF OF OF OF OF Util, 9 Pitchers) though I think for the first round such change is negligible. 

Tim Dierkes, author of RotoAuthority, recently posted the same question about the fourth pick over at his site, prefacing the debate with the likelihood of taking whoever is left out of Wright, Ramirez, or Reyes. I'm not big on taking Rollins or Holliday or Pujols... so I guess I'll be discontent. If you were in this worst pick, who would you take? 

St. Louis Cardinals

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC HOU

Wow. I didn't realize how truly terrible this team was until I began my earnest analysis. Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter represent their only star power, but Carpenter won't be back until at least the All-Star Break and Pujols may well have shut it down by then. Even in a bad division, this team doesn't look like it's going to be relevant this year.

Lineup:

• RF Skip Schumaker
• LF Chris Duncan
• 1B Albert Pujols
• 3B Troy Glaus
• CF Rick Ankiel
• C Yadier Molina
• 2B Adam Kennedy
• SS Caesar Izturis (Izturis may bat 9th, with the pitcher hitting ahead of him)

Rotation:

• Adam Wainwright
• Braden Looper
• Joel Pineiro
• Matt Clement
• Anthony Reyes

Closer: Jason Isringhausen

Thoughts...

I know the only reason anyone is reading this analysis is Pujols. Everything I've read indicates his elbow is less than 100% healthy, and he took a lot of wear-and-tear last season. He also has admitted he doesn't want to push his body to the same limits this year (probably because he knows the team will be awful), and will shut it down and opt for surgery if his elbow flares up. This risk makes him less attractive in the first round; however, keep in mind that he's still one of the most prolific hitters in baseball, and if he stays moderately healthy he can carry a fantasy team.

Josh Phelps had an excellent second half in Pittsburgh last season (same division, similarly pitcher-friendly ballpark). If you draft Pujols, grab Phelps on the chance that he could give you 20 HR in a half-season of ABs.

Rick Ankiel is one of Zach's sleepers, and he definitely could be a source of some cheap power late in a draft. Colby Rasmus is the Cards' number-one ranked prospect, and though he isn't draftable, keep his name on your radar screen this year. A strong spring could get him into the lineup early, especially because he is very strong defensively (if Ankiel struggles in center field, bringing Rasmus up would be the easiest change St. Louis could make).

Matt Clement, coming off shoulder surgery, may or may not be ready for Opening Day, but should be in the rotation early in the season. Mark Mulder, also coming off shoulder surgery, has May as his return target, while Chris Carpenter (elbow reconstruction) is trying to be ready by June. All of these guys are risky pick-ups, and to me, Carpenter is the only one who offers much reward. Clement and Mulder aren't going to be having career seasons in 2008 and aren't going to be too useful from a fantasy perspective.

Glaus might get you 30/100, but he'll bring a batting average of .250 along. Duncan has power potential, like Ankiel, and could be worth a late-round pickup. Isringhausen is aging and not a particularly great closer, but the job is his all season, something you can't say about many closers these days. Wainwright is the only rotation guy I'll draft. Overall, there's simply not a lot of promise here, especially if you don't want to take the risk with Pujols in Round 1. Better luck in 2009, St. Louis fans.

Houston Astros

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY CHC

It's been a big off-season for Houston. They've gone quickly through Billy Wagner, Brad Lidge, Octavio Dotel, and Dan Wheeler, and now look to Jose Valverde to bring some stability to the position. They no longer have the Killer B's, but they have a solid foundation with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Roy Oswalt. Fantasy-wise, if not baseball-wise, this should be a strong team.

Lineup:

• CF Michael Bourn
• 2B Kaz Matsui
• SS Miguel Tejada
• 1B Lance Berkman
• LF Carlos Lee
• RF Hunter Pence
• 3B Ty Wigginton
• C JR Towles

Rotation:

• Roy Oswalt
• Wandy Rodriguez
• Brandon Backe
• Felipe Paulino
• Woody Williams

Closer: Jose Valverde

Thoughts...

I'm a big fan of both Berkman and Lee. Run the numbers on Berkman and you'll find an interesting statistical anomaly - he performs significantly better in even-numbered years. This makes him even more attractive, and the multi-position eligibility never hurts. Lee is absolutely consistent, something that I think is very underrated in fantasy. Pence also gives you 20/20 potential in the outfield; I will be very interested to see what he does with a full season.

Their pitching staff is overall a mess. Oswalt has fallen from grace and is now a number 2 starter in fantasy. He's been in a statistical decline for the past couple seasons (falling strikeout numbers and win totals) but nonetheless I would take him as a number 2. Other than him and Valverde, I don't see an Astro pitcher worth touching. They aren't great and playing in such a hitter-friendly ballpark really hurts.

I have nothing bad to say about JR Towles. He is universally expected to go 10/10 or 15/15, which is excellent from a catcher (keep in mind you can probably get him 20 rounds after Russell Martin). If only he weren't batting in the 8th spot...

Everything I read places Tejada at .300 with 25 HR and 100 RBI in Minute Maid Park. With Berkman and Lee behind him, he'll definitely be scoring runs. I'm a little uneasy about the possibility of him doing jail time in midseason, but he goes pretty late and could get you some great value if you miss out on Reyes, Ramirez, and Rollins.

Finally, keep an eye on Bourn and Matsui. As far as I know, both usually go undrafted. If you're in round 20 looking at a team well-stocked with power, these guys could fill out a roster nicely and both could get you a lot of cheap steals. I'm big on targeting specific guys that fill needs in late rounds of a draft, and these are two I will watch closely at the end of drafts and throughout April as the season begins.

Chicago Cubs

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL NYY

I needed a relaxing half hour of posting, so I figured I'd analyze the best team in the majors. Okay, truth is I'm a bit partial to the Cubbies, but 2008 is as good of a year as any to jump on the bandwagon. With a developing farm system and the few offseason acquisition, the North Side of Chicago is looking strong.

Lineup

• Alfonso Soriano
• Kosuke Fukudome
• Derrek Lee
• Aramis Ramirez
• Mark DeRosa
• Geovany Soto
• Ryan Theriot
• Felix Pie

Rotation

• Carlos Zambrano
• Ted Lilly
• Rich Hill
• Jon Leiber
• Jason Marquis/Sean Marshall/Ryan Dempster

Closer: Bob Howry/Kerry Wood/Carlos Marmol

Thoughts...

Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez are all underrated. Soriano's September last year was .320, .354, .754 with 14 homeruns. Despite missing 27 games, he still hit 33 homeruns. His days of 30+ steals are behind him, but a season with a batting average around .300, 35+ HR, and 20-25 steals are what I expect. Lee similarly had a brilliant second half, right around he was a complete year away from wrist surgery. Anyone who watches the Cubs plays knows how smooth the guy's swing is. The last of the big three, Ramirez, struggled through injury but still topped 25 HR and a 100 RBI (kay, to be fair, he had 26 HR and 101 RBI, but it was an off-year).

A lot of people want to know what to expect from Fukudome. I've heard he's a mix between Ichiro and Hideki Matsui, and learned this does not mean that he has Ichiro's speed and Matsui's power. Instead, he has the characteristics of the player's that isn't reflected in most leagues--good plate discipline, great fielding, and clutch hitting ability. Unless your team counts OBP, he's probably at best a fourth outfielder with a low ceiling.

Soto and Pie are the youngsters, and while their performances last year ring like the beginning of Tale of Two Cities, I think both will lead decent campaigns this season. Soto should put up a .290-.300 BA with close to 20 HRs, while Pie will struggle with his average but likely hit double digit homeruns (no more than 15) with 25+ SBs. I like both players as sleepers going into this year, but come draft time and at this rate Soto will be going before Johjima, Saltillamachia, and Pudge Rodriguez.

Zambrano is 27, but has a lot of innings under his belt. He's still a fantasy ace, albeit at the expense of your WHIP. Hill on the other hand is looking at his third season, and I predict big things. Both guys should get you 15+ wins and close to 200 K's with a sub-4.00 ERA.

The closer situation is a mess, and there are rumors the Cubs are hoping to acquire Joe Nathan. They won't, but if Marmol gets the starting gig he's likely to perform like the Twins closer. His pitches look like they jump out of the way of bats.

Sleepers: The Swingers

Sleepers can mean several things, and I usually define it as players being taken much too late by my projections. However, for the purposes of this blog, I'm going to look at those players being taken outside of the first 210 picks, which for a 10-team Yahoo! or ESPN league means going undrafted, and for a 12 team, 23 roster league (276 picks) is pretty much the bench picks and free agency. So, starting with position players, I'll look at batters who I expect to have an impact on someone's roster come 2008...

Catchers: Justin Towles (ADP 215)

• This one is easy. Towles is going undrafted, while we have him as the ninth best catcher available. Even if he goes .280, 10, 10, it's better than most catchers. No one depends on the position for power, so that kind of balance the decent average that is expected make him a distinguished sleeper heading into next season.

First Base: Joey Votto (247), Casey Kotchman (272), Conor Jackson (280)

• Votto is another guy that could grab you steals from an unlikely position, did very well in limited time last year, and plays at a friendly park. Kotchman and Jackson are playing for established offenses that are looking to improve heading into next year. All three should be considered serviceable utility/DH guys.

Second Base: Freddy Sanchez (267)

• Sanchez is two years removed from a batting title, and while I wouldn't expect such heights, he's nearly as good as the other second basemen being drafted late. Still, unless he shows a promising April, he's at best a backup to someone like Aaron Hill or Dustin Pedroia

Shortstop: Julio Lugo (226)

• Lugo is looking to lead off, if he can hold off Jacoby Ellsbury, for one of the best offenses in the majors. His batting average before the break was abysmal, but he batted a more than respectable .280 after the Summer Classic. 8 HRs and 33 steals from a guy batting around .270 and .280 is a steal (no pun intended). Except for last year, Lugo has never batted for less than .275 while playing for an American League team (all AL East mind you... TB 2003-2006)

Third Base: Hank Blalock (216), Evan Longoria (232), Kevin Kouzmanoff (235)

• Blalock showed game after returning from surgery last season. Longoria could be the next Ryan Braun, and with nowhere near the investment it took to get Alex Gordon last year. Kouzmanoff is rarely drafted, but with double digit homeruns after the break (11 Post-All Star, 18 total, 13 away from Petco) he could provide an interesting "fantasy platoon" to play in away games.

Outfield: J.D. Drew (242), Rick Ankiel (248), Nate McClouth (249), Lastings Milledge (297), Wily Mo Pena (299), Luke Scott (343), Felix Pie (368)

• Drew is a decent 3rd outfielder who is getting no respect. He could easily bat for 20+ HRs if he stays healthy; if he doesn't, the rest of these guys should be in that free agency.
• Players I think have a chance to hit 25+ HRs (in order of confidence): Luke Scott, Rick Ankiel, Wily Mo Pena
• Players I think have a chance to steal 25 bags without compromising other categories: Felix Pie, Nate McClouth
• Lastings Milledge has been projected by some sources to go 20-20. I think 15-15 is more likely, but on an improved Nationals lineup he's worth a look.

Rankings: Relief Pitchers

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Catchers, First Base, Shortstops, Third Base, Outfielders

I am a big proponent of drafting several relief pitchers, especially closers, in a standard Yahoo! or ESPN league. If a league allows daily roster changes, rotating those upper-most 2 SP positions between a bench filled with starting pitchers and filling the RP and P spots with the best relief pitchers pads your peripheral stats. Last year my best team had a team ERA of 3.30, and I finished in the top three in both wins and strikeouts. When choosing between a bench of position players (often not far, if at all, above marginal level) and middle relief, I would recommend the latter.

That being said, the best relief pitchers are closers. Building an early lead in saves can keep in in the upper echelon for most of the season. Trading closers away to teams desperate for saves and generate a great team. So, which closers are worth keeping and which are worth drafting and trading away?

Tier 1: Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, J.J. Putz, Francisco Rodriguez

• Papelbon is projected by several reputable statistical analysts as ready for a season with an ERA well beneath 2.00. Throw in his K rate above one per inning, the chance for forty plus saves, and brilliant dance moves, and you have a great closer. Really though, everyone on this list is great, and if I had to choose between Papelbon at 42nd overall and K-Rod at 64th, I'd gladly take the latter (and these are the current ADP of the two).

Tier 2: Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito

Tier 3: Francisco Cordero, Jose Valverde, Bobby Jenks, Trevor Hoffman, Huston Street, Brad Lidge

Tier 4: Manny Corpas, Chad Cordero, Rafael Soriano, Joakim Soria, B.J. Ryan, Jason Isringhausen, Kevin Gregg, Matt Capps

Tier 5: Brian Wilson, Todd Jones, Eric Gagne, George Sherrill, Joe Borowski, Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, Kerry Wood, Brandon Lyon, Troy Percival, C.J. Wilson, Hideki Okajima, Jonathon Broxton, Rafael Betancourt, Jeremy Accardo, Pat Neshek, Al Reyes, Pat Neshek, Heath Bell, Brian Fuentes

The Cubs relief core rounds out the top 30 RP drafted in a ten-team league. Right now, Howry is the expected closer, Marmol is the best pitcher, and I think Wood will end up with the job. I'll let you try to make sense of what to do.

Papelbon carries an injury risk, and since you can grab Okajima late owners of the Red Sox should handcuff him with a great middle relief option. Other middle relief guys that I see as valuable handcuffs are Broxton, Accardo, and Zumaya (out till mid-season). Some guys who I think will start in middle-relief and earn closing jobs are Eddie Guardado and Rafael Betancourt.

Trendspotting - Brad Penny, Jason Bay

I'm looking to make this a weekly segment, published on Tuesdays, discussing some of the action in mock drafts or the different commentaries I've been reading. For this week, I want to talk about a couple of players I am constantly reading about: Brad Penny and Jason Bay.

Brad Penny: No, I'm not saying that this is the year he's going to pitch like a top-flight fantasy player for an entire season. Of course he won't. But what I am saying is that everyone hates drafting him because they know they're only getting half a season out of him, and he's plummeting down in drafts because of it. The Yahoo! experts have him ranked as their 40th overall starting pitcher, so it's not unreasonable to target him as a number 4 starter in a 12-team league. Last year, his WHIP over May and June was just over 1.00 (with an ERA around 2.00), and his July wasn't as bad as it usually is. Build up your peripherals early in the season and you'll be in a wonderful trading position at the All-Star break, if nothing else. I'll certainly be taking a look at Penny if he's hanging around late - in fact, I drafted him in my recent expert mock draft for Seamless Baseball.

Jason Bay: It seems like every draft analysis I read cries that "Jason Bay was taken too early" or "someone reached for Jason Bay." If the experts are universally denouncing Bay as going "too high," then they (and their readers) are going to avoid him like the plague. Pretty soon, his ADP will plummet, and come March (when all of you are drafting for real) he'll be a forgotten man and a great bargain. Don't forget that in '05 and '06 he was a five-tool outfielder, breaking 100 runs and RBIs and 30 home runs. The knee is a concern, but I agree with Zach that Bay wants out of Pittsburgh. His best shot at getting traded is to start hot, so the team moves him instead of Xavier Nady. Keep your eyes on Bay throughout draft season and in April and May - the early hype could make him a player to target soon.

Rankings: Third Base

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Catchers, First Base, Shortstops, Outfielders

Three first basemen will go in the first round, though I would contend that only two should. A-Rod should be the first player taken, and I would not question someone taking Wright with the second pick. In a ten-team league, there is one formidable third basemen for each league, though in a twelve-team league letting your target 3B slip may cost you. A lot of people argue that the position is deep, though I feel that there are several tiers at the position and hence having a premier third basemen can be extremely valuable.

Tier 1: Alex Rodriguez

Tier 2: David Wright

Tier 3: Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Garrett Atkins (and I like him, though something seems wrong with him here with Miguel Cabrera and him with Beltre)

Tier 4: Chone Figgins, Chipper Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, Adrian Beltre

Tier 5: Alex Gordon, Mike Lowell, Hank Blalock, Evan Longoria, Josh Fields

Tier 6: Edwin Encarnacion, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Andy LaRoche, Scott Rolen, Troy Glaus, Akinori Iwamura, Ty Wigginton, Eric Chavez

Tiers don't ordinarily include one player, but the top two in these rankings must. After last year, Rodriguez is on a tier of his own, while his fantasy compatriot Pujols no longer holds such an honor. Wright may hit the same number of home runs as Miguel Cabrera. He might bat for the same average. And he'll compliment both feats with more than twenty-five steals. 

I'm not totally sold on Braun, but on the off-chance that he holds his value I'll roughly equate him to Ramirez on the on-chance that he will get injured. Figgins has second base eligibility in some leagues, and should be the third second basemen off the board if thats the case. At third though, he's costing you homeruns at a position you depend on power from. 

Lastly, Alex Gordon is my post-hype sleeper for the season. He could go 20-20 without much improvement, and I expect improvement, especially in regard to his average. The former blue-chipper's poor performance is scaring people away from rookie-phenom Longoria, when Braun's rookie of the year performance should be attracting them. Always take high-risk, high-reward players over marginal veterans. If not for fear of Red Sox nation, Lowell might be at the end of that fifth tier.

New York Yankees

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR BOS BAL

The New York Yankees are an old team that just keeps getting older. They would be a lot more attractive had they won the Johan Santana sweepstakes... Oh well. Here are the familiar faces.

Lineup:

• LF/1B Johnny Damon
• SS Derek Jeter
• RF Bobby Abreu
• 3B Alex Rodriguez
• C Jorge Posada
• 1B/LF Hideki Matsui
• DH Jason Giambi/Shelley Duncan
• 2B Robinson Cano
• CF Melky Cabrera

Rotation:

• Chien-Mien Wang
  
• Andy Pettitte
• Mike Mussina
• Phil Hughes
• Ian Kennedy

Closer: Mariano Rivera

Thoughts...

A-Rod is the greatest player in fantasy. You already know this, of course, but I love to say it. I got him my mock draft - look for a summary and analysis of both of our teams to come soon.

Jorge Posada batted .338 last year, good for 60 points above his career mark. No chance it happens again. I expect him to age quickly, as most catchers do, but he could be worth a look this year if he falls. Pair him with a guy like Ronny Paulino or JR Towles to minimize your risks if you do take him.

Joba Chamberlain's name doesn't fit in anywhere above, but keep his name in mind as a late-round sleeper. He could be in the rotation or the bullpen right now, but frankly he's an excellent pitcher and could be worth owning in round 22.

With veterans, you can really analyze their previous trends to predict their yearly performance. For example, Johnny Damon usually seems to fade as the season goes on and injuries start to mount. You can count on Posada (and all catchers) to struggle through the heat in July and August. Andy Pettitte will probably have an excellent second half even if he's only mediocre to start the year, so if you don't draft him, see if you can grab him off a frustrated owner later on.

With all the Yankees, keep in mind the age and injury factors. Most are draft-able at some point, and you can expect they'll get around the basepaths and score runs the way they do every year. Just keep in mind injuries and trends when looking at all the veterans available from this squad and you will be in excellent shape for the year.

Ask the Experts: Pittsburgh Pirates

Our friends over at RotoProfessor recently had the opportunity to conduct a small interview of Danny Knobler, who provides excellent coverage of the Detroit Tigers for mlive.com (to view his coverage, click here). The following material is from the blog www.rotoprofessor.com, which puts up daily material and is definitely worth reading...

In the second installment of our “Ask the Expert” series, I had the chance to submit five questions to Rob Biertempfel, the Pirates beat writer for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. You can view his coverage of the team by clicking here. He gave a great insight into many of the questions people want to know about the Pirates entering into the 2008 season, so without further adieu, here’s what he had to say:

• Question 1: The team in general struggled offensively, with Adam Laroche and Jason Bay leading the way. Who do you think has the best chance to have a rebound season and why? 
  
• Rob Biertempfel: Some of Jason Bay’s problems last year were due to overuse — remember, it was news when he got a day off early in the season — and achy knees. Jason has told me his knees feel good to go, although he won’t be running all-out from the start of spring training. That’s a red flag. Knee problems never really go away; you can only manage the problem as best you can. Bay has plenty of incentives to upgrade his stats: personal and professional pride and the chance to bolster his trade value. LaRoche always has been a slow starter, but his output the first six to eight weeks of last season was awful. He altered his offseason routine a little (but still saving plenty of time for hunting on his ranch in Kansas) to hopefully jump-start the 2008 season. He’ll never put up Adam Dunn or David Ortiz numbers, but he still can be very productive in the Pirates’ lineup. 

Question 2: It appears that the Pirates CF options are wide open, with guys like Nate McLouth, Chris Duffy and Nyjer Morgan all having a realistic chance of winning the job. I’ve even heard talk of Andrew McCutchen as a possibility. Who do you see winning the job out of Spring Training? Who do you see filling the role by the end of the season?
Rob Biertempfel: Unless something bizarre happens, forget about seeing Andrew McCutchen in Pittsburgh until at least September. Chris Duffy also is bound for the minors in April; he’s got a lot to prove — mental and physical — to the new administration. I think Nate McLouth will emerge from spring training as the starter, because he has a nice mix of speed and power. Morgan will get plenty of playing time, though — perhaps something just short of a platoon. Who will be there in August? That’s a tough call, if the team ends up being as active at the trade deadline as I think it will be.

• Question 3: What role do you see Ryan Doumit filling for the team this season? 
  
• Rob Biertempfel: I think he’ll be the starting right fielder after Xavier Nady is traded. Backup catcher in an extreme emergency. Doumit showed a pretty good arm in right field last year and has decent pop. The Red Sox sniffed around about him in the offseason, but the Pirates’ demands were too high. 
  

Question 4: Which of the Pirates starting pitchers do you think will be the ace of the staff in ‘08, Ian Snell or Tom Gorzellany and why?
Rob Biertempfel: Gorzelanny has the best long-term prospects as an ace. But I’m hoping manager John Russell/pitching coach Jeff Andrews are more mindful of Gorzo’s health than was Jim Tracy/Jim Colborn. Snell showed at times last year that he is a more mature pitcher (except for that stuff about wanting to head-hunt the Rockies); he still has room for improvement in that area.

• Question 5: After his impressive major league debut in 2005, Zach Duke has struggled, including missing time in the 2nd half of ‘07 due to elbow troubles. Do you think he’s going to be healthy this season and how well do you think he’ll perform? 
  
• Rob Biertempfel: I think Duke is healthy again, both physically and in terms of his confidence. I’m expecting a seven- or eight-win season and an ERA around 4.30 out of him. Baby steps, but important ones.
  

Rankings: First Base

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Catchers, Shortstops, Outfielders

To me, first basemen are the power position of a fantasy team. In every category other than steals, your one bagger better produce or you will be under a lot of pressure to draft a hell of a supporting squad. My personal feeling is that in your standard Yahoo! or ESPN league, that utility spot might as well have "second 1B" written on it. I'll go into this at the end a bit, because I think it's a valuable strategic postulate.

Tier 1: Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder

• I'll say this several times as the season approaches--We are all looking to get burned for not grabbing Pujols earlier. His ADP is sixth right now, which is just about half that of Howard and Fielder, who are interchangeable as far as I'm concerned. While I think Pujols is the better guy, I am concerned by the elbow and the weak supporting cast. He'll beat the latter in average substantially, but Howard and Fielder will hit more homeruns, bat for more RBIs, and have a better shot at staying healthy.

Tier 2: (David Ortiz), Mark Teixeira

Tier 3: Derek Lee, Lance Berkman, Justin Morneau, Travis Hafner

Tier 4: Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez, Paul Konerko, (Jim Thome)

Tier 5: James Loney, Joey Votto, Todd Helton, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Garko, (Frank Thomas), Conor Jackson, Kevin Youkilis

I'm sold on an improved Cubs offense with a full season of Soto and the arrival of Fukudome, I'm not sold on an improved Twins offense with Delmon Young and Mike Lamb. Lee's 16 homers after the Summer Classic earns him a nod over Berkman, Morneau, and Pronks. I like Berkman as an outfielder more than at first, since you can grab a number of late guys at first that are better than late guys in the outfield.

I'm willing to wait for the 5th Tier, though I think the fourth tier will have more trade value and thats an important factor of value. Look for big seasons out of Loney and Votto, and bounceback campaigns out of Kotchman and Overbay. Along with the Big Hurt, if he doesn't get hurt, that final crew has a lot to be confident about.

Lastly, since this post includes both 1B and DH, I'd like to stress why playing a 1st baseman in your Utility spot is advantageous. If you have four good OFs above the marginal 1st baseman, you should be able to trade one of them for more than he's worth to you. If you have two great 3B, someone in the league would kill for the lesser of the two. Overall, any position other than 1B has more trade value than real value at the Utility spot.

How to Mock Draft

I have made the first step--I am no longer in denial. I have an addiction to fantasy baseball, and my fix during the offseason are mock drafts.

Okay, this is a little dramatic. But most of the people you will meet on the messaging board of the mock drafts will depict such a struggle. I have found a cure, or at least a way to minimize the symptoms. And it is one of the most important lessons of this blog.

When I first started mock drafting, I made the mistake of trusting fate. I would go in with no strategy save the players I wanted to target, grab them if someone else didn't first, and consider it a successful draft if my team looked good at the end. The problem is, every team looks good in February. During the voting period offered afterward, I've had the same pick chosen as my best and my worst, I've seen compliments and insults, and I've seen one team that I considered among the best voted as the worst. So what can you do?

Follow the scientific method. Come up with a strategy before hand, such as "wait as long as possible for pitching" or "ignore position scarcity" that will serve as your hypothesis. Follow that idea, and afterward look at your team. Is it as good as the one (or several) you drafted with the strategy "I love pitching" or "the team with Chase Utley wins"? If so, adopt that strategy, and go from there.

When I draft, I end up with what I feel is the best team (as do others via voting) consistently, so I know I'm prepared for this coming season. I still try to make slight changes; anything to give you another edge. But remember, go in with an idea, and follow it. If it made sense in the first place, it will probably help more than randomly drafting. Even if your strategy is "draft the best player available regardless of position" its enough to reflect on later. And once you know you've got a system that works, it helps with the addiction.

At least a little.

Baltimore Orioles

Previous Team Analyses: BOS TB TOR

What scares me as a Pittsburgh native is not that the firesale of Baltimore's veterans gives them a better outlook for the future, but that even in the team's current disheveled state they aren't that bad. Okay, only by fantasy standards, as if the eventual departure of Brian Roberts obeys the definition of eventual, they will have only a handful of draftable players.

Lineup

• Brian Roberts
• Luke Scott
• Nick Markakis
• Aubrey Huff
• Ramon Hernandez
• Adam Jones
• Melvin Mora
• Kevin Millar
• Luis Hernandez

Rotation

• Jeremy Guthrie
• Adam Loewen
• Daniel Cabrera
• Troy Patton
• Garrett Olson

Closer: George Sherrill

Thoughts...

There isn't much to be happy about really, save for Nick Markakis. He's among the new gang of Tier 3 outfielders, and stands out among them as likely to improve upon already formidable 2007 numbers. He's good for 25 HR and 20 steals on a team that has little incentive not to swing for the fences or swipe the ill-advised bag. As a second outfielder he's great, especially if you're already looking at a balanced team, and hence worthy of a fifth round pick. However, he's going in the fourth round right now, ahead of guys like Chris B. Young and Torii Hunter, which I think is a mistake. Without many RBI opportunities nor guys behind to drive him in, the five-category outfielder may only hit for three.

Adam Jones is among a "rookie" class of guys like Justin Upton, Felix Pie, and Cameron Maybin. I like him more than the last, but I think he needs another year to develop. Look for Delmon Young 2007 type numbers. The last outfielder, Luke Scott, should be going well before Jones (but he's not). Scott has shown a knack for power playing in a platoon while in Houston, so I consider him a poor-man's version of Josh Hamilton (lower upside, lower risk). Considering him in 4+ outfield leagues or as a bench option.

Brian Roberts is more likely a Cub next season than an Oriole from what the rumormongers are saying, and this will help his value. Either way, 50 SBs seems a bit high, though 40 would be in reach. If you're set to take a 2B early, I recommend taking Phillips or B. J. Upton a round earlier.

Don't draft any of the pitchers. Not even Daniel Cabrera, whose greatest attribute is his symbolic similarity to Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn from Major League. If you really need a late round sleeper, you could do worse than Guthrie. Just not much worse.

Rankings: Catchers

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Shortstops, Outfielders,

Thanks for the indecisiveness ladies and gents. Catchers come in tied with third basemen and first basemen, so I'll go with the backstops (mostly because it will be easy, and you guys have been taking the easy way out and not commenting. Just to incite you to change your behavior, these rankings will be particularly controversial). Most people argue that you can wait for a catcher after the first five are taken, I'm going to narrow that to four. But without further adieu...

Tier 1: Russell Martin, Victor Martinez

• This is a tough choice, but I think a clear one. Martin is five years younger, will likely steal fifteen bags for you, and won't compromise many homeruns. This, to me, was outweighed by the RBI increase you got last year from Martinez, but I don't think there will be such a gap this year. The Dodgers' offense is underhyped, and I like Martin to drive more runs in (though he might be asked to steal less with a career SB% just over 66%)

Tier 2: Brian McCann, Joe Mauer

Tier 3: Jorge Posada, Geovany Soto, Kenji Johjima, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Justin Towles

Tier 4: Ivan Rodriguez, Ramon Hernandez, Ronny Paulino, Bengie Molina, Mike Napoli, Carlos Ruiz, Kurt Suzuki

Posada doesn't belong in a tier of his own. His previous career high batting average was .281, and despite 2007's commendable year his career average is .277. He's an old catcher, and they decline quickly, so the days of high twenty HRs are over. I like that third tier, but you have to be careful since, even in a ten team league, someone will be stuck with a tier 4 or below backstop. The biggest bargain in regard to ADP is Towles, who could bat .280 with double digit HRs and SBs.

Boston Red Sox

Previous Team Analyses: TB TOR

To be totally honest, this is one of the easiest fantasy previews to do. Boston is up there with Detroit among teams where I recommend drafting almost everyone. Pittsburgh is also fairly easy because I recommend drafting no one. Anyway, the defending world champs boast a roster that is virtually unchanged from the previous season. Here's a review, for those who have forgotten:

Lineup

• 2B Dustin Pedroia
• 1B Kevin Youkilis
• DH David Ortiz
• LF Manny Ramirez
• 3B Mike Lowell
• RF J.D. Drew
• C Jason Varitek
• CF Jacoby Ellsbury
• SS Julio Lugo

Rotation

• Josh Beckett
• Daisuke Matsuzaka
• Tim Wakefield
• Clay Buchholz
• Jon Lester

Closer Jonathan Papelbon

Thoughts...

Curt Schilling, for those that haven't heard, is out until at least the All-Star Break, and possibly permanently, after badly injuring his shoulder. He elected to do rehabilitation instead of surgery, which opens the possibility that he could come back late in the year, but overall I consider him completely irrelevant from a fantasy perspective.

Manny Ramirez, previously addressed here and here, is no longer a top-flight outfielder. He has been bugged by injuries and it's difficult for me to imagine him suddenly finding his health. However, with that in mind, if you can get him as your number 2 outfielder, I think you're in great shape. In a league where everyone buys into the hype that he's done, you could grab him a little late. The guy still hits clean-up in one of the top lineups in baseball, remember, and he's been one of baseball's better hitters for a long time.

Papelbon is an outstanding closer. Okajima behind him is a nice guy to have because he'll provide you some great stats, and you never know what can happen (blasphemy, I know). 

I tend to side with Zach, who says that Beckett is a tad overrated. He deserves the huge reputation he gets from pitching well in the playoffs, but remember that fantasy is about regular season performance. He's only a year removed from a 5.01 ERA and I personally am going to let someone else take him too early.

As far as the lineup goes, everyone has the potential to be great. David Ortiz is just a reliable power hitter that won't kill your average - in fact, he hit .332 last season, which would be a great help to any team. Youkilis will also get on base but won't give you the power you need from your 1B spot, so avoid him unless you're getting a lot of power at other positions. Ellsbury was called a potential "poor man's Grady Sizemore" in one analysis I've read; I like him but be wary of hype taking a player too far. Finally, I expect Mike Lowell and JD Drew to both have bounce-back years. Lowell will bounce back closer to earth, while Drew should improve on his ridiculously low numbers from last year. 

Probably the biggest thing to remember with the Red Sox - or any team - is that when you draft a player outside of the first five spots, you're drafting him to perform at that level or better. It doesn't make sense to grab Ellsbury five picks after Sizemore, because if he has the best season possible, he'll only be fulfilling expectations. Look for guys who can be expected to perform at or above the level at which you draft them and you'll be building a solid team with nowhere to go but up.

Ask the Experts: Detroit Tigers

Our friends over at RotoProfessor recently had the opportunity to conduct a small interview of Danny Knobler, who provides excellent coverage of the Detroit Tigers for mlive.com (to view his coverage, click here). The following material is from the blog www.rotoprofessor.com, which puts up daily material and is definitely worth reading...

The Tigers have one of the most dominant line-ups in baseball, and a pitching staff to back it up. With the acquisitions of Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, they instantly vaulted themselves into title contention. That’s not to say that there aren’t questions entering the season. So, without further adieu, here is what he had to say about the 2008 Tigers season.

• Question 1: Gary Sheffield underwent surgery on his shoulder in the off-season. What is his status for the start of the season and can we expect him to see any time in the outfield this season? 
• Danny Knobler: The Tigers say Sheffield should make a full recovery by Opening Day. How much he plays in the outfield will be up to Jim Leyland. My guess is he won’t end up playing out there often. Magglio Ordonez much prefers to play right field rather than DH. Also, DHing could give Sheffield a better chance of staying healthy.

Question 2: The Tigers have an extremely deep batting order, but it seems that they have two great options for the #2 slot, Edgar Renteria and Placido Polanco. Which one is expected to hit second and where is the other expected to bat?
Danny Knobler: Polanco will start off in the #2 spot. That’s not to say it couldn’t change at some point, but there’s no reason to move Polanco out of a spot he fits so well in. Also, Leyland likes Renteria’s ability to hit in the clutch, and would like him in a spot where he could get more RBI chances (not that Polanco is a bad clutch hitter himself).

• Question 3: After being shut down in September, what is the status of Jeremy Bonderman’s elbow and is he expected to be healthy this season without having undergone surgery?
  
• Danny Knobler: Bonderman said in January that the elbow was fine, and also that he had adjusted his exercises and conditioning with the idea of keeping it healthy through the season.

Question 4: How do you think Dontrelle Willis will react to pitching in the AL after struggling last season with the Florida Marlins?
Danny Knobler: The AL is tougher, but pitching for the Tigers should help Willis. The Tigers are obviously counting on him to bounce back.

• Question 5: With last year’s primary injury fill-ins traded or non-tendered in the off-season (Jair Jurrjens, Andrew Miller, Chad Durbin), who is expected to be the first pitcher called upon to make a start if needed and what can you tell us about him? Any chance that last year’s first round pick, Rick Porcello, gets a look?
  
• Danny Knobler: Jim Leyland prefers not to take spot starters out of his bullpen, so he’ll likely look to pitchers such as Yorman Bazardo, Jordan Tata and Virgil Vasquez as fill-ins if needed. If it’s a longer-term issue, maybe you’d see Zach Miner starting again. It’s too early to think about Porcello in the big leagues, but the Tigers are anxious to get a look at him this spring.
  

Rankings: Shortstops

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers, Outfielders

Three shortstops might very well go in the first round of your drafts, and they probably should. My feeling with shortstops is that, after these three, there are enough decent ones to go around in any league not requiring a MI. This grooves with the popular sentiment that middle infield scarcity is overrated these days.

Tier 1: Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins

• Brief comments: I take Reyes over Ramirez because of the latter's offseason shoulder surgery, which is currently about as underplayed as Pujols's is overplayed.
• Rollins will go at the end of the round, but unless you are hurting for steals I wouldn't trade him for Reyes with the required marginal pitcher to warrant a lower tier. Rollins will get more runs and RBIs, though I wouldn't be surprised to see close to equal power numbers.

Tier 2:  Derek Jeter, Rafael Furcal, Troy Tulowitski, Carlos Guillen

Tier 3: Miguel Tejada, Orlando Cabrera, Michael Young, Edgar Renteria

Tier 4: J.J. Hardy, Khalil Greene, Julio Lugo, Yunel Escobar, Stephen Drew, Johnny Peralta, Felipe Lopez, Ryan Theriot

That's as far as they go in the first 276 picks. Tier 2 and Tier 3 are pretty close to me, but Tier 3 players simply carry a slightly higher "bust risk". Provided the similarity, I don't advocate drafting a shortstop until late unless one of the top three are there later than you think they should be. I'd rather draft someone who is going to much further from marginal level than the top shortstops with my first pick.

Toronto Blue Jays

Previous Team Analyses: TB

Hey all, time to continue up the rungs in the AL Beast. Toronto, apparently, is Canadian for "Disabled List," because most of the roster spent time on the DL last season. How different players recover from their injuries will determine the team's fate. 

Lineup

• SS David Eckstein
• 1B Lyle Overbay
• RF Alex Rios
• DH Frank Thomas
• CF Vernon Wells
• 3B Scott Rolen
• 2B Aaron Hill
• C Gregg Zaun
• LF Reed Johnson/Matt Stairs

Rotation

• Roy Halladay
• AJ Burnett
• Dustin McGowan
• Shaun Marcum
• Jesse Litch

Closer  Jeremy Accardo/BJ Ryan

Thoughts...

First and foremost, avoid Toronto closers like the plague. Generally only half of the closers at the start of the season are closing at year's end, and Ryan's return from Tommy John surgery at some point this year guarantees this will be the case for Toronto. You could blow a roster spot trying to get Accardo and Ryan in a draft, but even that doesn't seem worthwhile to me. Ryan will be coming back from surgery, and very few pitchers have any success in their first year back. Wait until 2009.

Alex Rios is an outstanding outfielder, and he's probably still low enough on the radar that he could be your number 2. The biggest problem for him is that the Blue Jays rarely, if ever, steal bases, so his potential to go 20/20 or better is wasted by his team's conservative play on the basepaths. CBS likes him to go .300/30/100/100/20, which isn't out of the question and really is a great statline. Don't draft him too high expecting these numbers, of course, but know that they could be on the horizon.

Trading Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus might've been big news five years ago, but not today. Rolen will most likely get hurt again, but even if he's healthy, he's not going to be clubbing 30 HRs ever again. Third is too deep a position to worry about this aging veteran.

Aaron Hill is an interesting guy. He's getting some hype as a good pick at second base, and he definitely has the potential to build on 17 HR last year. He's one of the few Jays not coming off an injury, too, which definitely makes him valuable.

Will the real Vernon Wells please stand up? Two years ago he was a fantasy force, producing in every category, and last year he tanked. Hopefully the shoulder injury accounts for the drop-off. Of course, as is always the case, the real Wells is somewhere in between his career highs and lows. He belongs in the third tier, but in my opinion, you're more likely to get a big bounceback from Andruw Jones or Jason Bay than Wells.

Roy Halladay is still an excellent pitcher, baseball-wise and fantasy-wise. The improved Jays' infield defense can only help him. He's not a 200 strikeout guy by any stretch, but he has the potential for a WHIP in the 1.10 range, which is fantastic over a full season. Dustin McGowan also had a phenomenal second half of last season. If you put his numbers over a whole season, they look fantastic. If he's available and you're looking for a 3 or 4, grab him.

Overall, injuries are still a concern. If the infielders get injured and the defense slips, that goes back to guys like Halladay and McGowan, even if both are perfectly healthy. If Frank Thomas finally goes down, the whole lineup gets a little weaker, with Rios being the most obvious victim after losing his protection. Keep injuries to everyone on the diamond in mind when looking to draft any Jays this season.

Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

Ah, arguably the worst team in baseball over the last several seasons. Fortunately, that's far from the truth when it comes to fantasy value, as the Rays have a formidable offense to pair with an improving pitching core. Unfortunately, they pair both of these with a small market team in the AL East.

Lineup

• 2B Akinori Iwamura
  
• LF Carl Crawford
  
• 1B Carlos Pena
  
• CF B.J. Upton
  
• RF Cliff Floyd/Rocco Baldelli
  
• 3B Evan Longoria
  
• DH Johnny Gomes
  
• C Dioner Navarro
  
• SS Jason Barlett

Rotation

• Scott Kazmir
  
• James Shields
  
• Matt Garza
  
• Edwin Jackson
  
• Andy Sonnanstine

Closer Troy Percival

Thoughts...

B.J. Upton isn't the only second-base eligible Rays player worth taking. Iwamura was a force in Japan, and while his number during his first season in the U.S. were weak, any improvement would warrant a roster spot at 2B. Monitor his performance, and if you miss out on the first couple tiers of 2B consider the import.

Replacing Upton at 3B is Evan Longoria, a third overall pick only two seasons ago. He has more upside than players such as Mike Lowell, and due to the poor rookie campaign of overhyped Alex Gordon a lot of drafters are shying away. If a rookie third basemen can put up Ryan Braun numbers, taking a late round flyer on the guy is worth the minor risk.

Upton and Crawford are studs. But the real question is whether Pena will put up numbers like he did last year, hitting for the second most HRs in the American League. My guess is that he won't, but 30-35 with a low BA isn't bad for a utility spot. Just don't depend on him to put up fantasy-league average first base stats.

Rocco Baldelli may have become such an injury risk that he's actually worth drafting as a late round flyer. The kid ran circles around his competition in the minor leagues, but can never seem to stay healthy. I think he could put up 400 ABs this year despite the platoon, and get double digit homers and steals. I don't think he'll get anywhere near 20-20 though.

The pitching is talented, but faces more talented lineups. First things first, the closer(s) of Percival and Reyes are some of the worst closers to take, playing for a bad team and on a short leash. I'm a big fan of Kazmir for strikeouts, but he's starting to show a tendency to start the season off slowly, making him a better trade-target than draft-target. Shields and Garza put up similar peripherals outside of WHIP, and this is why Shields is the guy to target. If your league doesn't take him in the mid-rounds, grab him. He's a very good number three fantasy starter.

Rankings: Outfielders

Previous Rankings: Starting Pitchers

Well, if it's outfielders you want, it's outfielders you get. In a Yahoo! 10 Team league, we are talking about 48 outfielders taken, while the larger pool will have 66 outfielders taken. That's a much larger jump than we saw in pitchers, and I agree with the reasoning. With 23 roster spots, someone should be on your bench to cover for injuries, and with three outfielders starting, the safest position is to hold a fourth.

Tier 1: Matt Holliday, Alfonso Soriano, Carl Crawford, Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, Ryan Braun, Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Lee

Tier 2: Ichiro Sukuki, Curtis Granderson, Manny Ramirez, B.J. Upton, Alex Rios, Adam Dunn

Tier 3: Magglio Ordonez, Chris B. Young, Torii Hunter, Nick Markakis, Shane Victorino, Gary Sheffield, Hunter Pence, Bobby Abreu, Eric Byrnes, Torii Hunter, Nick Swisher, Vernon Wells, Andruw Jones, Corey Hart, Jason Bay, Hideki Matsui, Jeff Francoeur

Tier 4: Jermaine Dye, Delmon Young, Josh Hamilton, Brad Hawpe, Juan Pierre, Johnny Damon, Matt Kemp, Aaron Roward, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ken Griffey, Gary Mathews Jr., Willy Taveras

Tier 5 (marginal level): Raul Ibanez, Nate McClouth, Colby Rasmus, Kosuke Fukudome, Pat Burrell, Chris Duncan, Michael Bourn, Jay Bruce, Rocco Baldelli, CoCo Crisp, Melky Cabrera, Adam Jones, Jack Cust, Garret Anderson, J.D. Drew, Jose Guillen, Michael Cuddyer, Jeremy Hermida, Justin Upton, David DeJesus, Mike Cameron, Xavier Nady

You can approximate Tier 1 as "very good number one outfielders", Tier 2 as "good number one outfielders", Tier 3 as "good number two outfielders", and Tier 4 as "good number three outfielders". As you can tell, there is a surplus of outfielders in the 3rd and 4th Tier, so when drafting you can wait to grab those outfielders if your team has other concerns.

Now, one thing that is worth noting is that this "marginal level" extends beyond those outfielders drafted, which literally means many people will draft a third outfielder no better than the free agency. If you find yourself in this position, you shouldn't draft that outfielder until the final round--don't fall trap to seeing that empty roster spot and worrying than you'll end up with Randy Winn.

Hot Stove Report: Starting Pitchers Part II

Spoiler Alert: The following thread will go into great detail about two major players. But it will also go into some detail about useless ones.

Carlos Silva - Leaves a pitching friendly Metrodome to a slightly less pitching friendly SafeCo field. Setting the new bar for the price of mediocrity, Silva fooled the Mariners into paying for four years of an innings-eater. Translation: Don't make the same mistake they did.

Mark Prior - He is hurt. He will get hurt. And his name value isn't enough to even store as on the DL and throw around in trades. For aforesaid idea, just draft Ben Sheets.

Johan Santana - The Twins overplayed their hand and the winner turned out to be Santana (and interestingly, C.C. Sabathia. But that's another story.) A couple years ago, a pitcher by the name of Pedro Martinez was so dominant that he was drafted first overall in most drafts. Imagine his statline of 2.07 ERA, 23 Wins, and 313 K's over 213 innings. Now, Santana isn't going to do that, but in his career against the NL he's put up a prophetic statline of 2.16 ERA, 9.18 K/9, and a winning percentage of .625. He shouldn't go first overall, but I would understand taking him anytime outside of the first five picks.

Erik Bedard - In a saga unrivaled since, well, the Mets trading for Santana, Seattle finally has a real ace pitcher to pair with the fluctuating mass of King Felix. Bedard gains more than anyone worth drafting (i.e. except for Prior) in regard to park factor, gains a better but still unspectacular offense, and gets to play without worrying about getting injured ever again. Two of those three were true. I can't bring myself to like Bedard, but the change of scenery warrants a second tier evaluation. You can't handcuff him, but be prepared to deal with an injury if the Seattle breeze isn't much different than the Maryland (it's not, I've walked both coasts).

Hot Stove Report: Starting Pitchers Part I

I'm not really sure why they call this part of the season the "Hot Stove" of baseball, but the best explanation I've heard thus far is that it is so cold in most cities that the only thing to do would be to read a newspaper (or a blog) next to a much-appreciated furnace. While, I find the offseason exciting, I have to redirect you to MLB Trade Rumors for a comprehensive look at the dealings--But there have been enough offseason deals involving pitchers that I figured I could write about all of them in less time than it takes for the Mariners to trade for Bedard.

John Garland - As much of a launching pad as US Cellular was known, Angel Stadium earned a park factor a thousandth of a point higher during the 2007 season. He's only 28, but with a career ERA of 4.41 and just over a half strikeout per inning, he's not going to be a fantasy ace. However, with the potential for increased wins on a better Angels team, I consider him a sleeper for the 2008 season.

Tom Glavine - Glavine is old, and not John Smoltz. This is particularly confusing when you consider the fact that they are both playing for the Braves, and that the last time they played on the same team... well, it was also the Braves. In my opinion he should not be drafted.

Dontrelle Willis - The third number three starter in a row, seems like teams never trade their ace (to be continued). Dontrelle gets a slightly more friendly park, but also switches to the AL Central with the dreaded Tigers lineup--fighting for him. The offseason has done wonders for him; the guy went from hyped to undraftable to hyped. I expect him to settle somewhere in between, and since it will cost you a much earlier pick than Garland, the latter is the guy worth watching.

Dan Haren - Finally, a huge impact player. Haren goes from being an ace of staff to a number two, so he should suffer from the Reggie Wayne complex of fantasy sports. He loses a great pitchers park behind him, but shifts into a pitcher dominated NL West where I think he will dominate until the All Star Break, when everyone will tell you to trade him.

Rankings: Starting Pitchers

In order to find our tiers, we must first figure out what a marginal pitcher is. In a standard 21-pick Yahoo! Default League, with ten players (anything less is outside the scope of this analysis), the total number of players selected is 210. The largest pool of players this site will concern itself with is 276, which is the number of players selected is a twelve team, 23 pick draft. Players after the first 210 picks will be in italics, up until the first 276.

In a ten team Yahoo! League, 54 pitchers will be kept; In a twelve team league, we are looking at twelve more for a total of 66. Players are listed within their tier by how I'd rank them, although by definition such differences aren't very important.

Tier 1: Johan Santana (14), Jake Peavy (19)

Tier 2: Brandon Webb (37), C.C. Sabathia (48), Josh Beckett (43), Cole Hamels (56), Erik Bedard (38), John Lackey (49)

Tier 3: Carlos Zambrano (58), Dan Haren (59), Justin Verlander (65), Scott Kazmir (68), Roy Halladay (94), Aaron Harang (73)

Tier 4: John Smoltz (80), Roy Oswalt (74), Felix Hernandez (85), Daisuke Matsuzaka, Chris Young (88), Ben Sheets, Fausto Carmona (100), Javier Vazquez, Kelvim Escobar, Rich Hill, Jered Weaver

Tier 5: Pedro Martinez, Brad Penny, Matt Cain, Brett Myers, Tim Lincecum, Francisco Liriano, Chad Billingsley, Chien-Ming Wang, Yovani Gallardo, A.J. Burnett, John Maine, Phillip Hughes, Jeremy Bonderman, Dustin McGowan, Dontrelle Willis, Oliver Perez, John Garland, Tim Hudson, Jeff Francis, Ted Lilly, Adam Wainwright, Rich Harden, Ian Snell

Bottom Tier (these are the marginal pitchers - In order to get to the second tier a pitcher would have to be worth two of these, and hence this tier is larger than most)...
Clay Bucholz, Micah Owings, Greg Maddux, Derek Lowe, Zack Greinke, Hiroki Kuroda, Joe Blanton, Jason Schmidt, Curt Schilling, Gil Meche, Bronson Arroyo, Jon Lester, Noah Lowry, Barry Zito, Shaun Marcum, Hiroki Kuroda, Mark Buerhrle

So, there are the marginal pitchers that the whole tier system should be based on. The numbers in parenthesis are the average draft position, used for the top twenty guys. Before I talk about who is overrated and underrated, what is your take on the order?